PREVIEW OF ROUND 15 IN THE AFL (ALL TIMES AEST)
FRIDAY, June 29:
Western Bulldogs v Geelong at Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
Head to Head: Bulldogs 55 Cats 101 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 9, 2017 – Cats 16.8 (104) bt Bulldogs 12.9 (81) at GMHBA Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Bulldogs $5.00 Cats $1.18
William Hill: Bulldogs $4.60 Cats $1.20
The Bulldogs are in freefall and it’s hard to make a case for their losing streak stopping at five. While they showed plenty of improvement in last week’s heartbreaker against North Melbourne, the succession of errors in the past couple of minutes was glaring. Geelong haven’t won after the mid-season bye since 2012, and it won’t be a walkover but they look too good. Matthew Suckling will make a welcome return for the Dogs.
Key: Patrick Dangerfield. The Bulldogs couldn’t stop Shaun Higgins last week and they come up against the 2016 Brownlow Medallist, who has starred against them in their past two clashes.
Tip: Cats by 30 points
SATURDAY, June 30
Carlton v Port Adelaide at the MCG, 1.45pm
Head to Head: Blues 18 Crows 18 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 5, 2017 – Power 20.17 (137) bt Blues 6.11 (47) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet odds: Blues $7.00 Power $1.10
William Hill: Blues $6.25 Power $1.12
Surely, this is a regulation win for the Power. They’re coming off three excellent home wins and Carlton are bottom. But the Blues pushed Collingwood last week and after the match, coach Brendon Bolton put them on notice that big things are expected for stalwart Kade Simpson’s 300-game milestone. And think back to round four, when the Power also travelled to Melbourne on the back of the three-straight wins and suffered an upset loss to Essendon. Captain Marc Murphy finally returns for Carlton and former Melbourne captain Jack Trengove will play his first AFL game for the Power.
Key: Young Blues key forward Charlie Curnow lit up the MCG last week with three goals and a couple of big marks. The Blues haven’t kicked 10 goals in a game since round eight and they need Curnow to keep firing.
Tip: Port by 40 points
Adelaide v West Coast at Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm
Head to Head: Crows 20 Eagles 25 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 23, 2017 – Eagles 15.10 (100) bt Crows 10.11 (71) at Subiaco
Tab Sportsbet odds: Crows $1.60 Eagles $2.35
William Hill: Crows $1.60 Eagles $2.35
Is that a light at the end of the tunnel for the Crows or is it a road train rumbling across the Nullabor that’s about to heap more misery on their tumultuous season? If they lose to West Coast, who remain without key forwards Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, that’s a five-game losing streak and their season of great expectations officially is shot. Rory Sloane, newly re-signed Tom Lynch, Rory Laird and Luke Brown are major inclusions for Adelaide. The Eagles are coming off two losses and while they still sit third on the ladder, an away win with a badly-depleted attack would be massive. Rory Sloane and Rory Laird lead six Crows changes, but Tom Lynch has concussion and will miss again.
Key: Nic Naitanui. It will be interesting to see how the star Eagles ruckman responds to criticism this week that he needs to throw his weight around more. If he turns it on, he is the sort of player who turns a game.
Tip: Crows by 10 points
Gold Coast v Collingwood at Metricon Stadium, 7.25pm
Head to Head: Suns 2 Magpies 5 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 17, 2017 – Magpies 15.13 (103) bt Suns 13.10 (88) at Metricon Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Suns $6.00 Magpies $1.13
William Hill: Suns $5.75 Magpies $1.14
Losing Adam Treloar to a hamstring injury is a blow for Collingwood. Losing Tom Lynch for the rest of the season is worse for Gold Coast. The Suns are on an eight-game losing streak and last week was the first time in five matches they’d kicked a goal in the last quarter. If there’s an upset to come in round 15, it won’t be there. The Magpies are on a roll and can not only sniff the finals but an unlikely top-four finish. As Lynch goes out, Gold Coast will regain co-captain Steven May.
Key: Jordan De Goey. With Treloar sidelined until deep into August, the young star will have more midfield responsibility. It’s proving a big week for De Goey, with news of North Melbourne’s $5 million offer.
Tip: Magpies by 50 points
GWS v Hawthorn at Spotless Stadium, 7.25pm
Head to Head: Giants 2 Hawks 3 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 16, 2017 – Hawks 14.13 (97) drew with Giants 15.7 (97) at University of Tasmania Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Giants $1.70 Hawks $2.15
William Hill: Giants $1.77 Hawks $2.05
The Hawks are ninth but only one game plus percentage away from fourth spot. And the Giants are just half a game behind them. So if Richmond-Sydney is the match of the round, this is probably the most important game of the weekend in terms of finals aspirations. The two teams are on three-game winning streaks but have lost key players – Hawks veteran Shaun Burgoyne is out for a month with a hamstring injury and Jeremy Cameron starts a five-game suspension. Rory Lobb is back for the Giants, at least a week ahead of schedule.
Key: Giants scoring. Cameron leads the GWS goalkicking with 35. The next best is on 12. Jon Patton kicked three last week in the win over Brisbane and GWS badly need him to fire inside 50m. They don’t necessarily need him to kick bags of goals but he must give them a marking target. Lobb’s quick return is also a welcome surprise.
Tip: Hawks by 15 points
SUNDAY, July 1
Melbourne v St Kilda at the MCG, 1.10pm
Head to Head: Demons 120 Saints 91 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 7, 2018 – Demons 16.10 (106) bt Saints 9.13 (67) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Demons $1.12 Saints $6.50
William Hill: Demons $1.13 Saints $6.00
Sadly, the debate around which of these teams is closer to a finals return was resolved a couple of months ago. For all their problems against other top-eight teams, the Demons look light years ahead of the Saints. Form suggests St Kilda are a chance – they finally had a win before the bye – while Melbourne are coming off two losses. But if the Demons drop this, alarm bells are ringing. Melbourne expect front-line players Tom McDonald (ribs) and Neville Jetta (head) to play.
Key: Jesse Hogan. The Melbourne spearhead was goal-less and only managed five marks in their last two losses. Remarkably, the Demons had 30 more inside 50s last week against Port Adelaide but still lost. They need Hogan to fire.
Tip: Demons by 30 points
Essendon v North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, 3.20pm
Head to Head: Bombers 97 Kangaroos 57 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 18, 2017 – Bombers 20.12 (132) bt Kangaroos 16.9 (105) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Bombers $1.95 Kangaroos $1.85
William Hill: Bombers $1.95 Kangaroos $1.85
This is one of the AFL’s best rivalries. Let’s be clear – the northwestern neighbours do not like each other. Adding to the spice, there is plenty riding on this one. North are eighth only on percentage and must keep winning. The Bombers have won four of their past five to return to finals contention but are two games and a lot of percentage shy of North. Just as the end to the North-Bulldogs game showcased the problems of the losing side, it also highlighted the poise and temperament of the winners.
Key: Zach Merrett versus Ben Jacobs. It is no coincidence Essendon’s improved form has coincided with more output from their All-Australian midfielder. His growing ability to cope with tags will face a stern test from the Kangaroos stopper.
Tip: Bombers by three points
Fremantle v Brisbane at Optus Stadium, 4.40pm
Head to Head: Dockers 15 Lions 14 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 12, 2017 – Lions 18.13 (121) bt Dockers 9.10 (64) at The Gabba
Tab Sportsbet odds: Dockers $1.25 Lions $4.00
William Hill: Dockers $1.26 Lions $3.90
This might be tougher than it looks for Fremantle. They are on the fringes of finals contention after winning their last two games and start favourites, especially at home. But they’re coming off the bye and Brisbane, for all their lack of wins, keep showing signs of life. Old warhorse Luke Hodge had his best game for the Lions last week in their competitive performance against GWS. Mind you, if Fremantle start against Brisbane the way they did against Carlton a fortnight ago, the game will be over in 15 minutes. Harris Andrews is a big loss for Brisbane.
Key: Ruck battle. Fremantle ruckman Aaron Sandilands and Brisbane counterpart Stefan Martin have been in hot form this season. Whoever can give his midfield first use will play a huge part in the result.
Tip: Dockers by 20 points
