The numbers show changing an NRL coach mid-season rarely pays off.
Josh Hannay will on Friday become the 20th man in the past decade to take charge of a side mid-season, filling the boots of Paul Green at North Queensland.
And while it’s often claimed a change in coach brings with it a change in attitude, new interim coach Hannay will need to defy the odds to beat Manly on Friday night.
Of the 19 new mid-season coaches who have gone before him in the past 10 years, just six have had success in their first game in charge.
And that includes Ivan Cleary’s arrival as a full-time mentor at the Wests Tigers in 2017, which came three weeks after Jason Taylor was sacked and an interim installed.
The defeats have been big ones too.
The average losing margin in those 13 games sits at 16.3, aided by the Warriors’ 50-6 smashing from Melbourne last month.
“I’ve been encouraged with the energy the group has shown,” Hannay said.
“We really won’t know until tomorrow night when the game gets tough and it’s an arm-wrestle, and it’s a grind and back-and-forth what we are prepared to do.
“We’ll see if the week has taken a toll on us then.”
Working in Hannay’s favour is, at least, the heart North Queensland showed in last week’s 22-10 loss to Penrith.
But there are challenges.
Already without Michael Morgan, Valentine Holmes and Scott Drinkwater, star prop Jordan McLean has again been ruled out as he struggles to overcome his calf injury.
Hannay though is ready to play the long game not just with the prop, but in his own first chance to show himself as an NRL coach.
“I’ve had three or four days with the group,” Hannay said.
“I would like to think my impact on the group and how they play will be judged over the 10 weeks and not a four-day period.
“A victory would be great but we need to put a month of good football together.
“I would take a month of good football over one good week at the moment.”
Meanwhile former Cowboys hooker Aaron Payne has come into the club as an assistant, with the Townsville Blackhawks’ Queensland Cup season over due to the coronavirus.
HOW MID-SEASON COACHES HAVE FARED:
Steve Georgallis (Canterbury, 2020): Lost 28-22
Todd Payten (Warriors, 2020): Lost 50-6
Craig Hodges and Luke Burt (Gold Coast, 2019): Lost 38-18
Kristian Woolf (Newcastle, 2019): Won 38-18
Cameron Ciraldo (Penrith, 2018): Won 17-16
Craig Hodges and Terry Matterson (Gold Coast, 2017): Lost 26-14
Ivan Cleary (Wests Tigers, 2017): Won 26-16
Andrew Webster (Wests Tigers, 2017): Lost 22-14
Danny Buderus (Newcastle, 2015): Lost 46-22
Neil Henry (Gold Coast, 2014): Lost 15-12
James Shepherd (Cronulla, 2014): Won 30-28
Paul McGregor (St George Illawarra, 2014): Lost 29-10
Andrew McFadden (Warriors, 2014): Lost 21-10
Andrew Dunemann (Canberra, 2013): Lost 36-22
Tony Iro (Warriors, 2012): Lost 38-6
Brad Arthur (Parramatta, 2012): Won 42-22
Jim Dymock (Cantebrury, 2011): Lost 36-12
Steve Georgallis (Penrith, 2011): Won 30-20
Shane Flanagan (Cronulla, 2010): Lost 20-13
* Does not include Shane Flanagan’s return from an NRL ban in round 3, 2013.
