AFL ELIMINATION FINAL BETWEEN WEST COAST AND COLLINGWOOD
WHEN: Saturday, 8.10pm AEST
WHERE: Optus Stadium
THE FORM
* West Coast (5th, 12 wins, 5 losses). Produced an eight-match winning streak in the middle of the year, but their two-point loss to the Bulldogs in round 16 ended up costing them a top-four berth.
* Collingwood (8th, 9 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw). Have been one of the best defensive sides all year, but struggled in attack and copped a 66-point loss from West Coast earlier this year.
HEAD TO HEAD
* Overall: West Coast 29 wins, Collingwood 25 wins, 1 draw
* In Finals: West Coast 3 wins, Collingwood 4 wins, 1 draw
* Last time: Round 8, 2020: West Coast 18.3 (111) bt Collingwood 6.9 (45) at Optus Stadium
THE COACHES
* West Coast’s Adam Simpson is leading his side into a sixth straight finals series. Has a 7-4 finals record, including the 2018 flag.
* Collingwood’s Nathan Buckley has taken his side to the finals in five of his nine seasons in charge. Has a 4-6 finals record, which includes losing the 2018 grand final to West Coast.
THE KEY DUELS
* Nic Naitanui (West Coast) v Brodie Grundy (Collingwood).
This match-up pits the current All-Australian ruckman up against last year’s. Naitanui has been a dominant force this season, with his exquisite tap work in the centre bounces particularly crucial. Grundy hasn’t reached the heights of last year, but he remains a formidable force.
* Jordan de Goey (Collingwood) v Brad Sheppard (West Coast).
Collingwood have struggled to score all season, but in de Goey they boast a destructive and creative weapon in attack. Sheppard has become one of the best lock-down defenders and is rarely beaten.
* Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass (West Coast) v Mason Cox and Brody Mihocek (Collingwood).
The intercept marking prowess of McGovern and Barrass loom as a key to this match. When opposition sides keep them quiet, the Eagles generally struggle. If Cox and Mihocek can keep the Eagles duo honest – and also kick a goal or two each – then an upset looms.
THE STATS
* Collingwood average a league-high 323.7 possessions per game but are ranked a lowly 13th in attack. West Coast rank second for marks (78.3 per game). The Eagles have beaten Collingwood in five of their past six meetings.
THE TIP
* West Coast by 28 points
