The 2021 NFL Draft kicks off in Cleveland this Friday morning (AEST) and the Neds team has its draft board ready to go.
We’ve put together our NFL Draft Markets, read the player bios, evaluated the team needs and studied the college tape… which is not actually tape because it’s all digital now.
After coming up with our 347 mock drafts, we’ve thrown them all together to find our best bets for the 2021 NFL Draft below.
1ST & 2ND OVERALL PICKS – No Bet
We know who it is going to be, Trevor Lawrence first overall to the Jags and Zach Wilson to the Jets second overall.
Not great for the suspense in the TV product, not great for the punters either with both players at prices that even the most dedicated Winx backers would think are a bit short.
3RD OVERALL PICK – Trey Lance @ $3.00
It’s a two horse race for the 49ers after trading up for the third overall pick.
They traded up with the Dolphins for a quarterback, not for anyone else, it just comes down to what they want.
Mac Jones is probably going to be a better player as a rookie, but Lance has the higher ceiling (and higher bust potential).
Personally I’m leaning Jones but when it does seem like a flip of the coin, $3 on Lance is worth a shot.
4TH OVERALL PICK – Kyle Pitts @ $1.70
Atlanta is in all sorts financially, needing to clear cap space just to be able to afford the remarkably cheap rookie class they will bring in.
As long as they keep the pick (and that is no certainty), they have to go for the best non-QB on offer and that is Pitts.
He would give Matt Ryan a reliable target in the final couple of seasons in his career and help bring on a new quarterback in 2023.
Unless they trade out in which case it could be one of the two (or three) remaining quarterbacks out of Lance, Jones and Fields.
TOP 10 PICK – Micah Parsons @ $2.20
This is the favourite and seemingly the most likely outcome for the first four picks.
When you consider how short of a price three of the four options here are, and the final one is at best a 50-50 shot, this seems like a good price.
You can also get some insurance on a second combination of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Pitts at $6.
EXACT ORDER – Top 4: Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Pitts @ $2.60
This is the favourite and seemingly the most likely outcome for the first four picks.
When you consider how short of a price three of the four options here are, and the final one is at best a 50-50 shot, this seems like a good price.
You can also get some insurance on a second combination of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Pitts at $6.
FIRST RB DRAFTED – Najee Harris @ $1.60
This is a total one horse race, Harris is easily the most polished RB in the rookie class.
Even with the position becoming increasingly devalued by the analytics “experts” Harris might find a way to sneak into the first round, well clear of where Etienne and the rest of his cohort will be selected.
FIRST WR DRAFTED – No Bet
Ja’Marr chase is the odds on favourite and seems set to go to the Bengals at pick five and at worst will fall to six with the Dolphins ready to pounce.
Unfortunately $1.10 isn’t a price worth backing in.
FIRST OL DRAFTED – No Bet
Same as the WRs, Sewell is a lock to be the first player at his position off the board and pick seven appears to be the floor for him.
No value in this market.
FIRST DL DRAFTED – Kwity Paye @ $2.10
Jaelan Phillips looks is the favourite in this market but I’m happy to take him on here with Michigan’s Kwity Paye.
Injuries have raised several red flags on Phillips and while his game footage is impressive, those injuries are equally or more concerning.
Paye on the other hand could be a diamond in the rough that has the makings of a mid-teens steal for whoever takes him.
FIRST LB DRAFTED – No Bet
There is value to be had on anyone not named Micah Parsons in this market but I don’t feel confident enough to back against a possible top 10 pick falling far enough for someone to leap ahead of him for someone else.
FIRST CB DRAFTED – Jaycee Horn @ $2.75
It’s a two horse race to be the first corner taken and it is certainly closer than Horn and Surtain’s prices currently suggest.
One of the two is going to Dallas at pick number 10 and with the mixed messages coming out of the lone star state, I’m ready to back Horn.
FIRST SAFETY DRAFTED – No Bet
This safety class is… not good at all.
I have no interest in any player here both from a draft or punting perspective.
JA’MARR CHASE DRAFT POSITION – Over 5.5 @ $2.10
This is the first of a two part, double-down play and it all comes down to who the Bengals want to take at number five.
It feels like it will be either Chase or Penei Sewell headed to Cincinnati and we need only look at the Super Bowl to see how important a good offensive line is.
As much as Joe Burrow would like to reunite with his college teammate Chase, the Bengals will opt to protect their franchise by bringing in a bodyguard for the young QB coming off an ACL injury.
PENEI SEWELL DRAFT POSITION – Under 5.5 @ $2.30
It’s not out of the question for Sewell to go 4th overall to Atlanta but if not, it seems like there will be plenty of interest in him in that range anyway.
Not long ago he was the second rated prospect and you cannot undervalue good protection for your quarterback.
KYLE PITTS DRAFT POSITION – Under 5.5 @ $1.60
If Atlanta does pass on Pitts, you know teams will be hammering the door down to trade up to number five to get this true game changer.
Again, it just seems far too obvious that he will go top five.
