The Melbourne Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday at Flemington with several of the countries top sprinters stepping out in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
Nature Strip is back to defend his crown, but he has does have his work cut out against a star-studded field made up of two-time Group 1 winner Eduardo, as well as stablemate Home Affairs.
Four other black-type races will take place on the program, and we’ve got you covered with our best bets for the entire day below.
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Race 1 – 12:40pm – The Stud and Stable Staff Awards Handicap (2000m)
Playoffs resumed well for fourth in the Woodford Cup at Warrnambool late last year and showed real improvement when winning at Caulfield at 2000m nearly a month later.
He’s again had a few weeks between runs, but the form from his last start does read well with Unique Artist going on to run well at Listed level at Morphettville last weekend.
The son of Tavistock ran a place in his lone start at Flemington last year and maps to get a nice run in behind the speed.
Race 2 – 1:15pm – BM84 Handicap (1600m)
Zoltan has been up a while, but he’s held his form nicely to return a place and a win from his last two starts.
The Symon Wilde-trained four-year-old ran second to the favourite Tuvalu at Warrnambool last month and then returned on the quick backup nine days later to gap his rivals by two lengths at The Valley over the mile.
Linda Meech rode him beautifully that day along the rail, and the pair have drawn to race to a similar pattern from the low draw. This is tougher back up to BM84 grade, but his recent form reads well for it.
Race 3 – 1:50pm – Vale Jack Styring Trophy (1600m)
Yonce is a perfect three-from-three to start her career and the sky is basically the limit for her at this stage.
The Proisir mare has risen through the grades with ease since she won on debut at Mornington last month, although it was a somewhat nervous watch for those that backed her last time out at Caulfield where she won only narrowly.
Out to a bigger track like Flemington should suit her though, and the way she’s been finishing off races suggests she’s up to handling the mile.
Barrier 11 is a slight query, but given the late speed she possesses, she should be finishing over the top of most of these.
Race 4 – 2:25pm – Talindert Stakes (1100m)
There’s a case to be made for a handful in the Talindert, starting with Miss Hellfire, who only needs to overcome the wide draw to be a chance.
The Hellbent filly won well on the Gold Coast two starts back but was no match on the quick backup in the Magic Millions Classic a week later.
That setup clearly didn’t suit, but with over a month between runs, she’s capable of bouncing back fresh at a nice price.
I also have time for Renosu, who is much better than his last start at Caulfield suggests.
The Godolphin colt ran two eye-catching placings during the spring and only weakened late after leading for most of the way first-up in the Chairman’s Stakes. Back out to a bigger track, he can only improve.
Race 5 – 3:05pm – Group 3 The Vanity (1400m)
Socialist is four weeks between starts since last running third in the 3YO Magic Million Guineas on the Gold Coast where she was seen making good ground late.
The start prior was equally as impressive when a clear runner-up to I Am Lethal on the Kensington track, while her first-up win by nearly a length ties in well.
She’s rock-hard fit now at this stage of her prep and typically runs well fresh. Jamie Kah has options from the draw and the pair can be expected to run well in what is a fairly open edition of The Vanity.
Race 6 – 3:45pm – Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m)
Forgot You looks to be in for a good prep if his trial win at Canterbury last week is anything to go by.
The Busuttin and Young-trained colt was enormous during the spring winning a couple of Group 2’s at The Valley, while he also held his own in the Caulfield Guineas finishing three lengths sixth to Anamoe.
I’ve also got plenty of time for Alegron, who in my mind is over the odds at $31.00 to win the CS Hayes.
He’s looked only plain at the trials, but this is a horse that finished third in the Champion Stakes and second in the Victoria Derby last year. Has won fresh and should be arriving on the scene late.
Race 7 – 4:25pm – Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m)
This is an exceptional edition of the Black Caviar Lightning and there are more than a few outcomes that would not surprise.
Nature Strip’s record at Flemington speaks for itself, but I’ve got a big opinion of the stablemate Home Affairs, who looks to be in for another outstanding prep based on what we’ve seen at the trials.
The colt by I Am Invincible still has some maturing to do, but I think a dry track and James McDonald are two big keys to him – as was the case when he won the Coolmore down the straight last year.
Like Nature Strip, he flies fresh, and McDonald also has a recent feel for him after riding him at Rosehill a couple weeks ago. Barrier 8 should see the pair stalk the speed and I’m confident his turn of foot can do the rest.
Race 8 – 5:05pm – The Elms Handicap (1400m)
Groundswell is three weeks between runs and now gets back to his home track where he’s won and placed previously.
The son of Fastnet Rock resumed at Caulfield last month to finish two lengths behind Open Minded, a form line that reads well with Lighthouse going on to run second to Tofane in last week’s C.F. Orr Stakes.
The Freedman-trained five-year-old is a four-time winner over 1400m, while he also tends to do his best work in his second run back.
Race 9 – 5:45pm – BM84 Handicap (1200m)
Pioneer River absolutely loves racing at Flemington and appears a good chance at adding to his record.
The son of Snitzel is a three-time winner at Headquarters, with all of those wins coming over 1200m.
He tacked on to that record two back on New Year’s Day and was far from disgraced a few weeks ago when fifth at The Valley behind In The Boat.
That horse has since gone on to run a place at Caulfield last weekend, so the form reads well for this.
