Suncorp Stadium will play host to Wednesday's State of Origin game between Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues. The game kicks off at 8:05 pm with the Queensland heading into the game as favourites with the bookmakers. Continue reading for our in-depth preview of the Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues game and give you our free tips and bets.

When: Wednesday July 17, 2024 at 8:05 pm

Where: Suncorp Stadium

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Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Odds

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Preview

The Blues deserve to take plenty of confidence into the decider after their complete and utter dismantling of the Maroons in the opening 40 minutes in Melbourne.

NSW bullied the champs through the middle – with Payne Haas finally putting his stamp on the Origin arena – while Mitch Moses produced the performance of his life after getting called up as his state’s No.7 saviour to lead them to an Origin halftime record 34-0 scoreline.

Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Brian To’o and Zac Lomax were devastating on the edges.

Mitchell’s presence, in particular, seemed to elevate the Blues’ confidence and swagger, but injury has claimed the strike centre in a huge blow. Newcastle’s Bradman Best enjoyed a stellar two-try debut in last year’s dead-rubber and is a game-breaker, but won’t scare Queensland quite like Latrell.

The Blues’ only other change is an inspired one: Warriors hardman Mitch Barnett could not be denied and replaces Haumole Olakau’atu, providing a bit more versatility and starch.

The Maroons will be encouraged by not getting completely blown away at the MCG, winning the second half 18-4. They eventually found ways to the tryline but their attack was very lateral, relying very heavily on the speed of Reece Walsh on the edges; more variety and directness will be required on Wednesday.

With wingers Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi out injured, Billy Slater has recalled Selwyn Cobbo on one flank and brought in Origin specialist Dane Gagai at centre with Valentine Holmes moving to the wing. If anything, that three-quarter-line – including Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (nine tries in seven Origins) – looks more formidable.

The historical Origin decider stats make daunting reading for the Blues. In 22 game three clashes where the series has still been alive, Queensland has won 15 times to NSW’s five, with two drawn (the Maroons retained the shield on both occasions as the current holders).

Meanwhile, the Blues have won just two of 13 Suncorp Stadium-hosted deciders; their victories on enemy soil came in 1994 and 2005. The most recent decider was a 22-12 epic won by Queensland in 2022.

The Maroons’ overall record in Queensland is 40-21-1, while they have won 15 of the last 18 Origins in the Suncorp cauldron – including six of the last seven.

The last eight Origins in Brisbane have produced totals of 38 points or less. The scale of the MCG result shouldn’t unduly concern the Maroons: on the eight occasions a team has lost game two by 16-plus to force a decider, they’ve either won game three or lost by six points or less.

NSW did an outstanding job cutting down Daly Cherry-Evans’ and Reece Walsh’s time with the football in game two.

But it’s hard to imagine the Blues being able to replicate that first-half ambush at Suncorp. The Maroons have been in this situation at home so many times and always find a way. Another classic looms – but it looks likely to again fall Queensland’s way.

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