Feature racing across Australia on Saturday will be run at Rosehill racecourse where we see the running of nine quality packed races in which the Rosehill Guineas headlines the day although there is another Group 1 race on the day that being the Galaxy where we will see last start Challenge Stakes winner Snitzerland line up again in a race that unfortunately Hay List is scratched from.
In the main race on the day the Rosehill Guineas It’s A Dundeel is the clear favourite with his odds in the red where he will be trying to make it back to back Group 1 wins after taking out the Randwick Guineas last time out.
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Race One: Darby Munro Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Fire Thunderbolt’s run in the Challenge Stakes last start, which i thought was very good. Looking at the form of these runners that race looks far better and at double figure odds should be right in the finish.
Don’t Back Me: Despite beating a few of these last start Ichihara had all of the favours and from barrier 12 i dont think she can win.
Big Danger: She’s A Fox went to Melbourne last start where she was heavily backed favourite and despite being disappointing there it wasn’t a bad run and should do much better on Saturday.
Roughie: Lady Of Harrods led them out at Morphettville last start before tiring. If you look at her first up performances she is yet to run a place but her 2nd up runs are very good and at $26 shouldn’t be ruled out.
$250 Fire Thunderbolt Free Bet
Race Two: Manion Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Permit is the best performed runner in the race and should improve from last start with a bit of a drop in weights. Should be able to prove his class on Saturday in a race thats much better suited for him.
Don’t Back Me: Julienas won well last start but ran all over the place in the straight. Willing to risk any horse that does that and is jumping at $2.90.
Big Danger: Tremec beat Permit with the same weight last start, gets in a little worse in comparison here but can definitely win again.
Roughie: Pelicano wasn’t meant to win on the heavy last start and his class prevailed. Better suited on the firm ground and at $11 he looks very good value to make it four wins in a row.
$250 Permit Free Bet
Race Three: Magic Night Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Bulbula has been forgotten in this market in my opinion. She probably comes out of the best form races without being embarrassed and against some runners still needing to prove themselves at the odds she is a good bet.
Don’t Back Me: Despite perhaps being the most talented horse in the race Assail has had a lot of problems and this race was never on the radar. She has drifted a lot in the market which doesn’t give you much confidence and i think she is a risk.
Big Danger: When a horse gets backed from $6 into $4.60 in a 2yo race you have to take notice and thats what has happened with Itameri.
Roughie: At the odds i think its worthwhile adding Sanagas into your selections at $51.
$250 Bulbula Free Bet
Race Four: Pago Pago Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Fuerza i thought was unlucky last start when he lost his position during the run. Looks a similar quality race here and i expect him to bounce back and run very well at $7.
Don’t Back Me: Two bad starts out of three for Sidestep have arguably cost him the race in one and prevented him taking part in the other. Definitely a very talented galloper but im not sure he is worth the risk due to his barrier issues.
Big Danger: Diamond Oasis was super on debut in easier company. Got back in that run and ran on very well to win, can definitely go on from that and should be right in this.
Roughie: Flak Jacket ran well in the Black Opal Stakes last start which is shaping into a good form race and at $17 you could do a lot worse than backing him each way.
$250 Fuerza Free Bet
Race Five: Epona Stakes 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: Epingle ran well when clear last start and i expect her to improve from that run. She is a very lightly raced galloper and with the services of Craig Williams at double figure odds i think she is a good bet in the Epona Stakes.
Don’t Back Me: Fibrillation continues to run well but never really looks like winning, again i wont be backing her at the odds she’s currently at.
Big Danger: Crafty Irna only just missed last time out and will be better suited in this race where she looks very hard to beat but perhaps a little short in the market.
Roughie: I thought Natch Catch was a very good bet in the Albury Cup but was scratched on that morning. At huge odds i think she can produce a good run.
$250 Epingle Free Bet
Race Six: Rosehill Guineas 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Fiveandahalfstar continues to run well without winning. He is currently at good odds for the race and i rate him about as good a chance as It’s A Dundeel in this race but much better value. Back to his own age group he will be hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: It’s hard to pick one but Sacred Falls has been disappointing since coming to Australia and im willing to risk him this time.
Big Danger: It’s A Dundeel is the odds on favourite for the race and despite being under the odds in my opinion he rates very well in this race.
Roughie: Twisted Emotions ran second to Fiveandahalfstar last preparation and has franked that form by coming back and winning his last two. At big odds should be one to include in your multiples.
$250 Fiveandahalfstar Free Bet
Race Seven: The Galaxy 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Sea Siren i think is the best horse in the race and she has a very good first up record. The query is can she win first up after an international campaign which can take its toll on a young horse and im willing to see her have a run back before betting on her.
Don’t Back Me: Tiger Tees hasn’t returned this preparation and despite his record at the distance at the odds i think there is better value around horses on the up.
Big Danger: Snitzerland beat a good Challenge Stakes field last start and gets into the weights very well again and looks hard to beat.
Roughie: Bel Sprinter has a perfect first up record winning four from four. This is a harder test but at $20 he looks good value.
$250 Sea Siren Free Bet
Race Eight: Ajax Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Stout Hearted was a bit disappointing in the last few runs last preparation but im happy to forgive them. Goes very well fresh and at $26 he looks a good each way bet in a race worth looking for some value.
Don’t Back Me: Riva De Lago i feel is under the odds and think he will drift out to double figures in this race which is what he should be at. Cant see him beating this field.
Big Danger: Havana Rey has been getting better and better each run and looks to be right in this race with the weights and barrier draw.
Roughie: Voila Ici has won five of nine first up runs and run a further two placings. Hard to go past that for a good galloper at $31 in the market.
$250 Stout Hearted Free Bet
Race Nine: Birthday Card Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Soft Sand is a class above this group of horses and will be the one headed to bigger and better things. Runs very well first up and looks very hard to beat in the race.
Don’t Back Me: Altar has never won first up and against a tough field like she meets in this race im happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Shamal Wind wasn’t disgraced in South Australia when running behind a very good horse in Lonhspresso. Can bounce back to winning form here.
Roughie: I had Gybe as my best bet of the day during the week and despite being up against a tougher field looks good value at the odds.
$250 Australian Star Free Bet
Best Bet: You will have to wait until the last race on the day which isn’t always a bad thing where Soft Sand looks to be the best bet of the day at $5.
Next Best: Fiveandahalfstar continues to race well and i think the drop back to his own age will suit him despite the increase in weights. I have him rated on par with It’s A Dundeel but he is much better value.
Best Roughie: On a day with plenty of value on offer i think Bulbula is the best valued runner on the day with some very good form heading into a race against an easier field and you can still get double figure odds.
