On the face of it, having to meet Geelong in next Friday night’s AFL preliminary final should be Hawthorn’s worst nightmare.
But on form, it’s hard to imagine the Cats beating them.
Sure, Geelong have beaten the Hawks 11 straight times since losing the 2008 grand final, including twice this year and seem to find their best whenever they meet them.
But on the evidence of their finals showings so far this September, the Cats aren’t in the Hawks’ class.
They put in a patchy performance in their shock qualifying final defeat to Fremantle at Simonds Stadium and Friday night’s semi-final escape act against Port Adelaide wasn’t that much of an improvement.
The Cats lacked finals intensity for the first half and at the main break deservedly trailed 3.6 (24) to 7.5 (47).
Having talked after their loss to Fremantle about needing to use the ball more smartly entering their attack, for long periods of the game it was much the same.
The Cats kept bombing the ball long and high.
And a Power defence, which kept getting numbers back, kept winning the ball back and rebounding it.
Tom Hawkins, on return from a back injury which has troubled him throughout the season, again looked a shadow of the dominant forward he is at his best.
Geelong found their spark after halftime, finally attacking the man and the ball with ferocious intensity and when they won possession, moving it fast by hand and foot and starting to hit targets in attack.
It took them just 14 minutes of the third term to draw level and they kicked the first 4.3 of the quarter, including two goals to Hawkins.
After the Cats hit the lead, Port never regained it.
But Geelong won’t be able to rely on one half of high-level football to beat the Hawks next week, given the imperious way the minor premiers dismissed Sydney in their first final.
Not helping Geelong’s cause, veteran Paul Chapman, one of his side’s best with four goals, might perhaps miss the preliminary final through suspension.
He flattened Port’s Robbie Gray with a fierce bump during the Cats’ third-term surge.
Chapman had his feet off the ground when he connected high with Gray, in a very similar incident to that which cost Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin his place in the Hawks’ elimination final team.