Flemington racecourse will host arguably the best day of racing anywhere in the country for the year on Saturday for is known as Derby day. The day boasts a nine race program all of which are group races including the Group 1 Victoria Derby run for three year olds over 2500m as well as the Group 1 Myer Classic, Coolmore Stud Stakes and the Mackinnon Stakes.
The weather in Melbourne has been quite good this week and it is forecast to continue until Saturday so we are likely to be racing on a Dead or Good track come race time which will be perfect conditions for all horses.
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Race One: Carbine Club Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Hucklebuck has stepped up through the grades throughout his four career starts and he continues to get better. He won impressively last start at Caulfield and meets a similar field on Saturday so i am expecting him to show a similar level of class which will make him hard to beat, punters will need to be willing to take the short odds of $2.50 but he should be winning again.
Big Danger: Paximadia was disappointing at Caulfield last start in a race which i thought he had a very good chance in. He won at Flemington the start before and will return to the track on Saturday and is likely to take up the running and with what looks to be a relatively slow tempo race he should get every chance and be tough to run down.
Roughie: Saintly Lad is yet to win a race from three career starts but Shamus Award showed on Saturday that shouldn’t be taken into account. He has excuses in all three starts and from barrier 3 he will get a good run throughout, he will be suited to the straight at Flemington and im expecting him at good odds to run a big race.
$650 Hucklebuck Free Bet
Race Two: Wakeful Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Arabian Gold brought her good Sydney form to Melbourne last start in which she won impressively despite the narrow margin on the line. She has a very good winning record having won five of her nine career starts whilst placing on two other occasions. Much like the favourite she will need a bit of luck from the barrier but i think in this race she is likely to take a forward position in running as there doesn’t look to be much speed, which i think will be a massive advantage and at $7 i think she will be hard to beat.
Big Danger: May’s Dream showed she is a very classy filly in the Thousand Guineas who will continue to get better with more racing under her belt. She gets into the race really well weight with just 54kg on her back, she will need some luck from barrier 9 but Nicholas Hall has been riding exceptionally well and he will give her every chance. She is a $2.50 chance which i think is under the odds here but she is definitely the biggest danger in the race.
Roughie: Wordplay found traffic last start which is why she finished so far back but with some luck i think she would have been right up there in the finish. Her previous two starts before that were very good when again she didn’t have a lot of luck. She has drawn well on Saturday in barrier 4 and will get an easy trip throughout, if she can get a bit of luck coming into the straight i think she is a massive chance at $15 in betting.
$650 Arabian Gold Free Bet
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Race Three: Lexus Stakes 2500m Form Guide
Back Me: Bass Strait has been very good this preparation including perhaps the run of the race in the Toorak Handicap when coming from a mile back. He got back in the David Jones Cup and the tempo of the race basically made it impossible for him to win but he still made good ground in the race. He steps up in distance on Saturday which i think will suit him and i think there should be relatively good speed in the race which will set it him up perfectly. He is currently an $11 chance in betting which i think is tremendous value in what looks to be a very winnable race for the son of Holy Roman Emperor.
Big Danger: Let’s Make Adeal almost fell last start early in the race then was held up in the early stages of the straight and was only beaten just over a length on the line so it was a massive effort. She gets into the weights well with just 54kg on her back. She has drawn wide which is a bit of a concern but from the wide barrier she will go back and if she can sit one off the fence with some cover she will have a relatively good run throughout and it will allow her to come wide in the straight and show her turn of foot. She is $9 chance in betting but come race time i think you may be able to find better value and i think she will be hard to beat on Saturday.
Roughie: My Quest For Peace was very disappointing last start but i think there may have been something wrong which is why he finished so far back. His runs before that were all very good leading into a race like the Lexus Stakes and i am willing to put a line through his last run so he has to be included in selections. He is a $26 chance in betting and i think if he can get a bit of luck from the wide barrier he will be right in the finish.
$650 Bass Strait Free Bet
Race Four: Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Missy Longstocking has won eight of her eleven career starts so she definitely knows how to cross the line first. She drops weight from her last start victory where she sat wide and put the field away quite easily. She continues to get better each run and i think the Coolmore Stud Stakes on Saturday will suit her. She has drawn midfield which will be an advantage and i think she is a massive chance in the race at $12 in betting.
Big Danger: Zoustar has arguably been the stand out three year old this season with wins in the Group 1 Golden Rose and a very impressive four length victory in the Roman Consul Stakes. He is a $1.90 shot in betting at the moment which really doesn’t provide any value although he is definitely the horse to beat in the race and will be tough to hold off.
Roughie: Fast ‘n’ Rocking hasn’t fired in his last two runs but back to the 1200m i think we will see the turn of foot he can produce. He has drawn well in the race and is likely to sit back in what is likely to be a bunched field. There looks to be decent speed in the race which will suit him and i think he could be a blow out in the race at $41 in betting.
$650 Missy Longstocking Free Bet
Race Five: Mackinnon Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Jet Away’s run in the Caulfield Cup was massive after sitting wide throughout and sticking on to be beaten just under two lengths on the line. He has drawn the inside barrier on Saturday so he won’t have to worry about covering extra ground in the race and if he has come through that run well im expecting him to be winning on Saturday where he is a $3 chance in betting.
Big Danger: Mr Moet was well backed in the Caulfield Cup last start at odds and despite not running into the placings he put in a very solid run in the race. He drops back in distance here which i don’t think will be an issue and from barrier 5 he is set to get the run of the race. He is an $11 chance in betting and i think he is ready to win after some solid performances this preparation.
Roughie: Moriarty i thought was very good in the Caulfield Cup last start. He went back to last in the race from the wide barrier and he hit the line strongly late. He has again drawn wide but in the small field he wont be as far off them heading into the straight and i think his turn of foot over the 2000m will be hard to hold off. He is currently a $15 chance in betting which i think is a very good each way price.
$650 Jet Away Free Bet
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Race Six: Aami Victoria Derby 2500m Form Guide
Back Me: Criterion hit the line well last start in the Spring Champion Stakes behind race favourite Complacent. He looked like he would appreciate a further step up in distance which he will get on Saturday. He has drawn wide but will go back in the run which won’t be an issue and there looks to be relatively good speed in the race which will suit. Currently $9 in betting which i think is very good value for a class horse like him.
Big Danger: Savvy Nature was very impressive at Moonee Valley on the weekend when he showed he was a class horse winning impressively albeit in an easier race. Like our on to selection he has drawn wide but again it wont be an issue as he is likely to go back in the race. What looks to be a good tempo race over the 2500m will suit him and i think he will be very hard to beat which is why he is $4.80 in betting.
Roughie: Surging Wave has impressed me in his last few runs hitting the line well on all occasions. He goes into the race with just the one win to his name but that isn’t an issue in the Victoria Derby. He is well bred and looks like he will enjoy the distance which some other runners will be questionable at. He is a $21 chance in betting and is definitely woeth an each way ticket.
$650 Criterion Free Bet
Race Seven: Myer Classic 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Zurella i thought ran a very good race last start and she hit the line well in what is a good form race over 1400m. She will be better with the step up in distance and from barrier 6 she will get a good run throughout the race. She has won twice at the distance before and has also won at Flemington so that makes the $18 on offer look very good value for a talented mare.
Big Danger: Red Tracer has never won at the mile from four attempts but those runs where all in Group 1 company. She has been racing in career best form this year and despite the wide barrier i think she will be very hard to beat on level weights in a race like this. She is at $2.25 in betting and is probably deserving of those short odds.
Roughie: Zonza won well at Caulfield last start over the same distance and i definitely think she can make it back to back wins. She goes up slightly in the weights but that shouldn’t be an issue for her. She has a very good record over the mile which some others in the race don’t and from barrier 2 she won’t have to do any work throughout the run. Currently she is $17 in betting which looks massive overs.
$650 Zurella Free Bet
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Race Eight: Yellowglen Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Lonhspresso was first up after a long break at Caulfield and with 59kg on her back i thought her run was enormous. She has won her only second up attempt which she is on Saturday and the barrier wont be an issue as i think they will group to her side. She is untried at Flemington although i think the running down the straight will suit her and in the weights she will be very hard to hold out so the $8 on offer is great value.
Big Danger: Bennetta raced wide throughout last start which is why she performed poorly. I thought she had a very good chance in Tristarc so i am happy to stick with her on Saturday. She drops 4kg from that run and she has drawn barrier 1 meaning she will be able to take a spot behind what is likely to be two groups of horses. She has a good record at the distance and her form against her own sex is very good. She is currently $8 in betting and im expecting her to put in a big run and go very close.
Roughie: Chiaramonte didn’t have any luck last start at Caulfield when pocketed in the race where he looked to have plenty to give so that run can have a line through it. He has drawn well in barrier 6 and will get to decide where he will sit in running. His record at Flemington and over the distance are both good and at $11 in betting he is a horse you must include in your selections.
$650 Lonhspresso Free Bet
Race Nine: Tab.com.au Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Galah put in a massive run last start where he was posted wide throughout but was able to still be there in the finish being beaten just over a length. He has a good record at Flemington and over the distance and his third up record suggests he will be very hard to beat. He will need a little luck early in the race to find a good running position but if he can i think he is the horse to beat at $6 in betting.
Big Danger: British General has been very gallant this preparation and that paid off with an all the way win last start at Caulfield. He has a very good record over the track and distance having never finished out of the placings from six attempts. At $10 he will go to the front and he has shown it takes a lot to run him down and i think that will be the case on Saturday.
Roughie: Eximius i thought was very good at Caulfield last start where he hit the line well in a pretty good form race. His second up record is much better having won and placed from two tries second up and at Flemington he has won twice from two starts. He has drawn well in barrier 3 and won’t have to spend any energy throughout the run and i think he will be hard to hold out late in the race. He is an $11 chance in betting which looks very good value.
$650 Galah Free Bet
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Best Bet: Galah
Next Best: Jet Away
Best Roughie: Zurella
