A surprise patch late in the AFL season where Gary Ablett showed he is, in fact, mortal might have left the door open for a massive Brownlow Medal upset.
The Gold Coast captain’s four-goal, 33-possession master class in the season-ending win over Greater Western Sydney could make the difference to Ablett winning his second Brownlow.
That typical day out for Ablett, where he will surely pick up three votes, came after a four-game run where the output from the star midfielder temporarily dropped.
Gold Coast only won once from rounds 19-22, against Melbourne, and in that game Ablett was held to a season-low 19 possessions.
So Ablett needs a solid lead once AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou starts reading the votes out a little quicker in the closing stages of the count.
There has been a big betting plunge on Hawthorn midfielder Sam Mitchell, who was the runner-up for the last two Brownlows and should feature prominently again.
Since Friday, 90 per cent of the money taken by Centrebet has been for Mitchell.
The Hawks star’s odds have plummeted from last Monday from $21 to $5.50, making him third-favourite.
In the same time, Ablett has eased from $1.68 to $1.80.
Other big names who could spoil the night for Ablett include Collingwood pair Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan and Geelong captain Joel Selwood.
All are proven vote winners – Swan won two years ago – and all have the advantage over Ablett of playing in teams that made the finals.
While the punters have belatedly decided Mitchell is a big chance, he has had a more varied role this season and was named on a half-back flank in the All-Australian team.
That could go against him, because it is definitely a midfielders’ medal.
Ablett is deservedly the man in Monday night’s count after an astonishing season where he eclipsed even his own lofty standards.
The 29-year-old had 13 games where he had 30 or more disposals, including his mammoth tally of 49 in the round-17 upset of Collingwood.
He only missed one game this season and Gold Coast improved to eight wins.
Before Essendon captain Jobe Watson won last year’s Brownlow, no player from a team which finished outside the top eight had won the award since Hawthorn star Shane Crawford in 1999.
So every win for the Suns this season directly impacts on Ablett’s chances.
Ablett will still need to poll well in losing games, given all five previous winners have had at least 30.
He is a guaranteed vote-winner, having finished in the top 10 every year since 2007.
Ablett won the 2009 Brownlow at Geelong and in his two seasons at Gold Coast he has finished equal-sixth and sixth.