Richmond will look to make it a three-peat in 2021, but The Wolf believes there’s another team that can spoil the party after an impressive 2020 season.
Here are The Wolf’s AFL tips for the 2021 season.
They’ve got the Power to win
Richmond are worthy favourites in the premiership market as they look to win their third flag on the trot and their fourth in five years, but the $7 on offer for Port Adelaide is where The Wolf is keen to bet into given their off-season recruits and promising youth.
Ken Hinkley’s men got within a kick of Richmond in last year’s Preliminary Final and have the personnel to take the next step.
Port have a great balance of veterans and kids, with the likes of Boak, Gray and Dixon complimented nicely by third-year trio Rozee, Butters and Duursma. Aliir Aliir will add some much-needed size down back which was one of their major issues last season.
If Orazio Fantasia can return to his best it will only add to the potent scoring power they displayed in 2020 when they averaged just under 70 points per game (ranked second).
Last season certainly wasn’t a one-off for the Power and The Wolf is expecting further improvement in 2021.
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Port Adelaide Power
Port Adelaide Power
Lions right up there
We’ve seen Richmond finish third at the end of the home and away season in all three of their premiership years – could this be the year where failing to secure a top-two finish will see them come unstuck?
Both Brisbane and Port Adelaide are teams on the rise and if both can finish top-two and secure two home finals, they put themselves in the driver’s seat to meet in the last Saturday of September.
Brisbane’s had consecutive top-two finishes going 16-6 in 2019 followed by 14-3 last year (equating to 18 wins in a 22-game season).
Now they add a healthy (at least currently) Joe Daniher into the mix along with the talented Nakia Cockatoo, but the loss of the dynamic Cam Rayner certainly hurts. If Daniher can play 18 games this season, the Lions are a great chance to finish the home and away season on top of the ladder.
Brisbane/Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Saints still marching
The Saints were brilliant in Brett Ratten’s first full year as coach and look set to continue their build after another aggressive recruiting push which brought Brad Crouch and Jack Higgins to Moorabbin.
If the pre-season competition is anything to go by, the uncongested style generated by the new man on the mark rule will play nicely into the hands of key players like Brad Hill, Zak Jones and rising star Hunter Clark.
And although he’s still only 20 years old, if Max King can live up to the hype and have a 40+ goal season it puts the Saints in the discussion for top-four.
St Kilda Saints Over 11.5 Wins
St Kilda
Pies to plummet
As we all know, it was a horror off-season for Collingwood with Tom Phillips, Adam Treloar and Jaidyn Stephenson all departing with little coming back in return.
On the plus side, the Pies’ defence, which conceded the third-fewest points in 2020, remains intact with Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard and the returning Jeremy Howe a rock solid combo.
Their ability to score looks set to be an issue again, however, after the Pies were ranked 13th for points scored in 2020. It’s clear Nathan Buckley is keen to play Jordan DeGoey in the midfield, which will only amplify the issues up forward, especially with the loss of Stephenson.
A lot will need to go right for Collingwood in 2021 and with both Adams and Sidebottom entering the season under injury clouds, The Wolf is expecting the Pies and the out of contract Nathan Buckley to be heavily under the microscope throughout 2021.
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Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies Under 12.5 Wins
How about Hawthorn?
Speaking of horror off-seasons, a host of key off-season injuries, Jonathon Patton’s off-field issues and Tom Scully’s retirement is hardly the ideal preparation for a Hawthorn side coming off a bottom four finish in 2020.
Seven of the Hawks’ best eight players are 27 or older and outside of former Pick 13 Will Day, inside mid James Worpel and new recruit Tom Phillips, it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from in a side that will be missing star players James Sicily and Jack Gunston for large parts of the year.
The Wolf expects another bottom four year for Hawthorn and he wouldn’t talk you out of a bet on them for the spoon at $10 either. Expect some hard questions to be asked on the long-term direction of the club is and potentially whether Alastair Clarkson is committed to what looks like a long rebuild.
Hawthorn Hawks Under 8.5 Wins
Then there’s North and Adelaide…
Strap yourself in if you’re a fan of either side – it’s going to be a long year.
Similar to what Matthew Nicks endured in his first year at Adelaide, The Wolf expects a rough debut season for David Noble at North.
Fourteen players departed Arden Street at season’s end, including Ben Brown and Shaun Higgins, with the club intent of going to the draft and rebuilding from the bottom.
The Roos have the most players under 23 years of age in the AFL and if the pre-season games are anything to go by, a lot of them will be playing senior football this year.
The Crows, too, are at ground zero and have lost key players in Brad Crouch, Rory Atkins and Kyle Hartigan. There was some cause for optimism at West Lakes late in 2020 after three wins in their last four games, but let’s not forget this was a side that lost 13 straight to start the year.
Expect these two sides to battle it out for the spoon, but at the current quote, the value lies with the Crows.
Adelaide
Jack to Steele the show on Brownlow night
A trend has emerged over the last 12 years on Brownlow night – you need two years of work under your belt to win the Brownlow Medal. Dating back to 2009, 11 of the last 13 Brownlow winners have finished top 6 the year prior in votes per game. The only two not to being Trent Cotchin in 2012 and Matt Priddis in 2014.
Looking at the top-six in votes per game from 2020 the list features 2021 favourite Lachie Neale, Matt Rowell, Travis Boak, Christian Petracca, Jack Steele and Scott Pendlebury.
Working through this list by process of elimination, no one 32 or older has won the Brownlow – we can rule out Boak and Pendlebury. Both Matt Rowell and Lachie Neale will need to do something that hasn’t been done in over 20 years – win under the age of 21 and win back-to-back Brownlows respectively.
We’re therefore left with Petracca and Steele and The Wolf’s siding with the Saint. Steele faced remarkably little competition for votes from teammates in a team that played finals in 2020. Behind his team-best 20 votes were Dan Butler and Rowan Marshall with just eight each.
With The Wolf predicting another big year for St Kilda, the inside mid who is capable of hitting the scoreboard is a huge chance to win this year’s Brownlow.
The value is with Stephen Coniglio at $67. He had a nightmare 2020 in his first year as captain of the Giants, but proved in 2019 that he’s a good poller. If he can get back to that level of play and the Giants can win a few more games, he’ll be in the discussion.
Jack Steele
Stephen Coniglio
Rising Rowell
If he manages to stay fit, Matt Rowell is a certainty for the 2021 Rising Star.
There was talk about him winning the award from five games last season and he is already in the Brownlow conversation.
North Melbourne’s Tom Powell will be another player to keep an eye on who will get plenty of opportunities in 2021. Picked at 13 by the Kangaroos in last year’s draft, Powell is a genuine ball-winner averaging 33.5 disposals last year in the SANFL under 18s competition.
Matt Rowell
Tom Powell
Coleman for Charlie
Geelong’s Tom Hawkins won last year’s Coleman Medal, but with Jeremy Cameron joining the Cats expect the forward duo to share the goals next season.
That’s why The Wolf is taking Charlie Dixon at $9.00 to win his first Coleman Medal. In line with our prediction of Port to win the flag, Dixon will need another big year and although Todd Marshall is a promising key forward alongside him, there’s no genuine danger of him taking many goals away from big Charlie.
Another chance currently priced at $23 that could make a run is Carlton’s Harry McKay. Many expect a big improvement from the Blues this season and McKay has shown he is capable of kicking multiple bags.
While he started slow in 2020, McKay worked his way into the season well kicking 3 or more goals on four occasions from the last ten games. If the Blues are to make a push for finals, it will need to be off big Harry’s boot.
Charlie Dixon
Harry McKay
Harry McKay
Jeremy’s still on top at GWS
Jeremy Cameron is out the door which puts added pressure on the Giants forwards and The Wolf thinks Jeremy Finlayson can step up in front of the sticks.
Expect the number one defender to go to Harry Himmelberg most weeks, while Toby Greene could spend a bit more time up the ground. Jake Riccardi and Jesse Hogan remain unknown properties as well.
Finlayson managed 19 goals from 15 games last season – just five goals behind Cameron – and was remarkably consistent, only failing to slot a major in one game.
He also kicked 44 goals in the 2019 season (second behind Cameron again) and appears overs at the $6.
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Jeremy Finlayson
Bailey top Bulldog
Bailey Dale certainly knows how to hit the scoreboard but he fell out of favour last season. The 24-year-old is yet to put together a full season but could get an opportunity in 2021.
With Tory Dickson and Sam Lloyd retiring, there’s an opportunity to cement a spot as that mid-sized forward for the Bulldogs alongside Mitch Wallis, and if he gets a proper run at it could surprise many this season.
In 2019, Dale made his way back into the team in Round 18 and picked himself for their Elimination Final against the Giants by kicking 20 goals in the last six rounds of the season.
With question marks around Josh Bruce’s role in the team, plus the injury-prone nature of Aaron Naughton, Dale showed in the pre-season game against Melbourne that he’ll be in the mix for Round 1 and looks worth a ticket to lead the Doggies’ goal-kicking at $23.