Crunch matches to decide AFL finals fate

The race for the AFL finals has never been hotter, with 12 sides in genuine contention for eight places.

There are five matches left and while each match is worth four points – every club in the race can circle one clash as being more important than the others.

These are the crunch matches that will define your club’s run-in:

1. ADELAIDE – 52 points, 140 per cent – Collingwood (MCG), Port Adelaide (AO), Essendon (ES), Sydney (AO), West Coast (PS).

BIG GAME: R22 – Sydney (AO)

The Crows could lock in the minor premiership in as soon as the round 20 Showdown. But their biggest game is against the Swans two weeks later – can they bring the heat in a potential grand final preview, especially if they’re already minor premiers?

2. GEELONG – 46, 115 – Carlton (ES), Sydney (SS), Richmond (SS), Collingwood (MCG), GWS (SS).

BIG GAME: R20 – Sydney (SS)

Geelong should lick their wounds and rebound strongly against Carlton, setting up a mouth-watering clash with the red-hot Swans at home. With a tricky run remaining, it will be crucial to maintaining a lock on a top-two position.

3. GWS GIANTS – 44, 114 – Fremantle (Spotless), Melbourne (Canberra), Western Bulldogs (ES), West Coast (Spotless), Geelong (SS).

BIG GAME: R20 – Melbourne (Canberra)

With a returning Jeremy Cameron, surely the Giants will have too much for Fremantle – arriving in Canberra to face a Melbourne side with designs on their top-four place. Lose that and the Giants could keep sliding.

4. RICHMOND – 44, 109 – Gold Coast (MS), Hawthorn (MCG), Geelong (SS), Fremantle (S), St Kilda (MCG).

BIG GAME: R21 – Geelong (SS)

The Tigers have two big tests – against the Hawks and Cats.The Geelong clash is enormous – if they lose to Hawthorn, Richmond will need a heartstarter – and if they win, the hype for the Simonds Stadium match will be incredible.

5. PORT ADELAIDE – 40, 132 – St Kilda (AO), Adelaide (AO), Collingwood (AO), Western Bulldogs (Ballarat), Gold Coast (AO).

BIG GAME: R20 – Adelaide (AO)

With four games at home and one of the gentler runs, Port Adelaide are a genuine top-four chance. The swing match is the Showdown – a win would establish their flag credentials.

6. SYDNEY – 40, 116 – Hawthorn (MCG), Geelong (SS), Fremantle (SCG), Adelaide (AO), Carlton (SCG).

BIG GAME: R22 – Adelaide (AO)

Away trips to Hawthorn and Geelong will test Sydney but it’s clear the Swans are now a premiership threat – so who better to test themselves against but the minor premiers in waiting?

7. MELBOURNE – 40, 108 – North Melbourne (Hobart), GWS (Canberra), St Kilda (MCG), Brisbane (MCG), Collingwood (MCG).

BIG GAME: R19 – North Melbourne (Hobart)

GWS and St Kilda might pose sharper threats on paper but it’s in Tasmania that the Demons most need a win. Melbourne haven’t beaten the Kangaroos since 2006 and ending that hoodoo would allow the Dees to ride the momentum into finals.

8. ESSENDON – 36, 110 – Western Bulldogs (ES), Carlton (MCG), Adelaide (ES), Gold Coast (MS), Fremantle (ES).

BIG GAME: R19 – Western Bulldogs (ES)

Essendon have three games they should win, a trip to Adelaide where they likely won’t, and this clash with the Bulldogs. Success would put the Dons four points and a chunk of percentage clear of the premiers – it’s their biggest match by far.

9. WEST COAST – 36, 101 – Brisbane (SO), St Kilda (ES), Carlton (SO), GWS (Spotless), Adelaide (SO).

BIG GAME: R20 – St Kilda (ES)

After Sunday’s woeful fadeout loss to Collingwood, the Eagles must earn redemption in a fortnight. Adam Simpson’s side should respond against Brisbane this weekend and then put things right at Etihad or it’s curtains for their season.

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS – 36, 98 – Essendon (ES), Brisbane (G), GWS (ES), Port Adelaide (Ballarat), Hawthorn (ES).

BIG GAME: R21 – GWS (ES)

Are the premiers pretenders in 2017? The Giants are the only top-four side on the Bulldogs’ run home and it’s against Leon Cameron’s side that their finals fate could hinge.

11. ST KILDA – 36, 97 – Port Adelaide (AO), West Coast (ES), Melbourne (MCG), North Melbourne (ES), Richmond (MCG).

BIG GAME: R19 – Port Adelaide (AO)

After two poor losses to Essendon and St Kilda, crunch time for the Saints will arrive on Saturday at Adelaide Oval. Another loss and the backwards momentum may be too much.

12. HAWTHORN – 30, 88 – Sydney (MCG), Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Launceston), Carlton (ES), Bulldogs (ES).

BIG GAME: R19 – Sydney (MCG)

If it was any other team – in 12th with five games left – they wouldn’t be listed. But this is Hawthorn, combining strong form with an unrivalled finals pedigree. The dream dies, however, if they can’t get past Sydney on Friday at the MCG.

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