Fresh injuries, the AFL finals draw and poor September form means the odds are stacked against Geelong.
In the wake of Friday night’s 51-point qualifying final belting from Richmond, coach Chris Scott said they have come too far this year and they must stay optimistic.
But they only had 38 inside 50s against the Tigers and simply did not play well.
Cam Guthrie and Jake Kolodjashnij also suffered calf muscle injuries, putting them in doubt for the rest of the season.
They have now won just two of nine finals since their 2011 premiership and Friday night’s loss puts them into the tougher side of the finals draw, featuring Adelaide and Sydney.
They are staring down the barrel of a straight-sets exit.
“When you go into that side of the draw, you can make an argument that Adelaide and Sydney have been the best two teams for a lot of the year,” Scott said.
“But we worked really hard to get ourselves into this position where we could have another crack at it.
“We have no choice but to be optimistic about what we can do.”
Guthrie came off early in the third term and given he was tagging Dustin Martin, his absence was a telling blow for the Cats.
“The logical, obvious thing is it hurt … it wasn’t ideal,” Scott said.
“Guthrie (his injury) is significant I think.
“I’m more optimistic on Kolodjashnij, but not overly optimistic.”
Despite their woes, the Cats were level in the third quarter and they were only 13 points down at the last change.
“Sometimes when you have a big percentage of your players not playing well, and you’re still in the game at three-quarter time, things can change really quickly,” Scott said.
“Unfortunately they just changed for them – the dam wall burst.”
The Cats controversially dropped forward Daniel Menzel and Scott would not go into detail about why, other than to say they were worried their attack looked cumbersome.
Menzel looks a near-certain recall for their Saturday home semi-final.
“He’s a very real option and someone who more than likely, we would bring back,” Scott said.
Captain Joel Selwood did not have much influence, but he should be better for the run after returning from ankle surgery.
Scott said they would put Friday night behind them quickly.
“It would be crazy to spend too much time looking backwards when we still have huge opportunity,” he said.