Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Tips, Odds, Teams & Predictions – AFL Grand Final 2024

MCG will play host to Saturday's AFL game between Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions. The game kicks off at 2:30 pm with Sydney Swans heading into the game as favourites with the bookmakers. Continue reading for our in-depth preview of the Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions game and give you our free tips and bets.

When: Saturday September 28, 2024 at 2:30 pm

Where: MCG

Bet: Bet On This Match HERE

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Odds

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Preview

The Brisbane Lions’ fierce ability to mount comebacks has become a hallmark of their finals journey, but it’s easy to overlook the cracks in their defensive structure. Despite their resilience, the Lions have averaged 85 points conceded per game in the AFL Finals – a worrying statistic as they head into the Grand Final.

In recent history, only one team has lost a Grand Final while scoring 85 points or more: Brisbane, just last year. To avoid a repeat, the Lions must tighten up defensively and find a way to neutralise Sydney’s fast-paced transition through the likes of Nick Blakey, Errol Gulden, and Chad Warner.

While both teams have had their defensive lapses, Sydney’s relentless offensive pressure gives them an edge. The Swans average 14 goals per game to Brisbane’s 13, and the Lions’ often-questionable accuracy in front of goal could be a defining factor. Both sides have similar disposal efficiency, but Sydney averages more clangers, showing their vulnerability under pressure.

A key concern for the Lions is their ability to defend through the corridor and resist repeat inside 50s caused by turnovers. When Brisbane executes this correctly, their rebound play is lethal, but maintaining that consistency over four quarters in a Grand Final environment is no small feat. Sydney, meanwhile, excels at applying sustained offensive pressure and disrupting opposition game plans.

The Swans’ midfield, known for its tenacity, averages more tackles per game than Brisbane, adding to the Lions’ challenge of lifting intensity when it counts most. Fatigue also looms large as a potential decider. Brisbane’s road to the Grand Final has been physically taxing, and in the high-pressure cauldron of a final, they may find themselves running on fumes.

While both teams are no strangers to finals heartbreak, Sydney’s track record of narrow defeats and Grand Final appearances without the ultimate reward – most recently in 2022 – suggests they are primed for redemption. With their proven ability to limit consecutive goals and their speed through the corridor, the Swans might just hold the edge in what promises to be a tightly contested final.

If any team is likely to slip defensively, it could well be the Lions, whose lapses in concentration have proven costly in key moments.