2012 Giro d’Italia, Grand Tour Preview Guide.
First Grand Tour of the season follows an unconventional start with three of the opening stages being held in Denmark, but a conventional three week format over some 3,500 kms and 21 stages in total; with two rest days, two individual time-trials, one team time-trial, seven “fast” stages, four “medium mountain” stages, three “medium mountain with climbing arrival” stages, one “high mountain” stage, and three “high mountain with climbing arrival” stages.
M Scarponi 3.50
Will become the official winner of the 2011 Giro prior to the race start this year, when he’ll be presented with the maglia rosa, since Alberto Contador “was stripped of his title by a CAS ruling” earlier this year, and Scraponi was runner-up. However, he didn’t shown much sharpness in Giro del Trentino earlier, losing large amounts of time in each of the mountain stages, whilst last year he had finished 1st on GC in this same stage race. Similarly, he finished 3rd on GC in Tirreno-Adriatico last year, whilst this year he managed only a 7th place finish on GC. Nevertheless, showed-up well with an 8th place finish at the following Sunday’s, Liege-Bastogne-Liege one day race. Seems to be favourite by default. Odds way too short. No value. Worth the risk.
I Basso 5.50
In 2010 here, he finished 1st on GC and 2nd in the Mountains classification. Recently, he was over two hours behind the winner in 53rd place, at his last start, Tour de Romandie. Old-timer, who is known for his formidable strength in the third week of a Grand Tour. Odds short. Hard to discount lightly. Take on trust.
R Kreuziger 10.00
5th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
3rd on GC in Tirreno-Adriatico.
6th on GC in Giro del Trentino.
6th on GC in Tour de Romandie.
Last start was a good tune-up for this race. Has stripped his weight down, ideally. Excellent prospects for a podium position. One of the main contenders. Fair value for the WIN. Best bet.
F Schleck 10.00
Taking an optimistic view after coming into this as a replacement for injured team-mate Fuglsang. Last time he started here, was in 2005.
This season:
7th on GC in Vuelta a Andalucia.
24th on GC in Paris-Nice.
24th on GC in Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco.
Then; fair results in the Ardennes Classics (12-20-23). Team orders will dictate that he shows aggression and goes for the win overall. Classy rider who can win this quite easily on his best form. Should not be discounted for the win. Warrants respect. Danger. Watch closely.
J Rujano 11.00
Little-known but experienced climber who has proven himself over three weeks of riding in this Italian Grand Tour. In 2011 here, he finished 7th on GC, 3rd in the Mountains classification, and finished 2nd at stage 9, 2nd at stage 20 and 1st at stage 13.
This season:
2nd on GC in Tour de Langkawi.
5th on GC in Giro del Trentino.
Odds are short. Worthy of close consideration for a podium position.
D Cunego 21.00
11th on GC, here, in 2010.
This season:
13th on GC in Paris-Nice.
6th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya
4th on GC in Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco.
2nd on GC in Giro del Trentino.
Fair value for an EACH-WAY result. Warrants respect. Worthy of very close consideration.
J Gadret 21.00
13th on GC, here, in 2010.
3rd on GC, here, last year.
French cyclo-cross expert who has been toughened-up for this year’s season of road racing, with a short cyclo-cross season. Fair EACH-WAY value. Worthy of very consideration for a podium position.
R Kiserlovski 41.00
10th on GC, here, 2010.
42nd on GC, here, last year.
This season:
9th on GC in Paris-Nice.
7th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
11th on GC in Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco.
Then; solid results in the Ardennes Classics (29-5-14). Odds appear reasonable. One to take into calculations. Keep safe.
R Uran 41.00
35th on GC, here, 2010.
This season:
12th on GC in Paris-Nice.
5th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
Colombian climber who will endeavour to sneak a good result in the mountains for his Sky team, and ultimately a top-20 finish on GC. Take on trust.
S Szmyd 41.00
81st on GC, here, last year.
This season:
49th on GC in Paris-Nice.
13th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
3rd on GC in Giro del Trentino.
7th on GC in Tour de Romandie.
Polish old-timer who can climb, but is not noted for his aggression on tough mountain climbs. Cannot win here, at this stage. Ignore.
E Sella 51.00
11th on GC, here, 2007.
6th on GC, here, 2008.
34th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
12th on GC in Giro del Trentino.
Italian climber who appears to have accomplished his best results here, earlier in his career. Odds too short. Ignore.
R Hesjedal 51.00
Will captain the Garmin-Barracuda team for the first time in a Grand Tour, and is confident of a top-10 finish on GC. Consider.
S Henao 51.00
This season:
13th on GC in Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco.
Then; fair results in the Ardennes Classics (21-14-29). Colombian climber who is unlikely to find the consistent top-10 results in the mountains which would find him amongst the main GC contenders for the GC, here, at this stage. Ignore.
M Nieve 67.00
10th on GC, here, last year.
Talented Spanish climber. Odds are reasonable. Take on trust.
H Dupont 81.00
11th on GC, here, last year.
Number two man for AG2R La Mondiale, here, who will be expected to offer assistance when needed for his team-mate Gadret. Recently; a 7th on GC in Giro del Trentino. Overlook.
C Vandevelde 101.00
Will be supporting his team-mate captain, and won’t feature amongst the fancied contenders. Ignore.
B Intxausti 126.00
This season:
24th on GC in Tirreno-Adriatico.
1st on GC in Vuelta Ciclista Asturias.
Spanish climber who has little experience here, and is unlikely to be suited by the obstacles. Odds are reasonable. Ignore.
J Serpa 151.00
13th on GC, here, 2009.
30th on GC, here, 2010.
51st on GC, here, last year.
This season:
6th on GC in Tour de San Luis.
1st on GC in Tour de Langkawi.
8th on GC in Settimana Ciclistica Internazionale Coppi-Bartali.
13th on GC in Giro del Trentino.
Colombian old-timer, climber, who appears to have found some fresh energy in his riding. Not the worst here. Take on trust.
D Moreno 151.00
28th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
17th on GC in Tirreno-Adriatico.
1st in GP Miguel Indurain.
23rd on GC in Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco.
Then; fair results in the Ardennes Classics (17-24-13). Good climber who needs more kms in his legs to figure amongst the fancied contenders. Odds appear reasonable. May surprise with some good stage results. Wait to see.
D Cataldo 151.00
12th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
9th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
Lightly-raced Italian rider (so far this season) with good experience here, and all-rounder claims. Good value. Worthy of some consideration for a podium position.
M Bruseghin 176.00
10th on GC, here, 2009.
Italian old-timer, climber, who won’t contend much here. Ignore.
A Vinokourov 176.00
6th on GC, here, in 2010.
Kazakhstani old-timer, all-rounder, who should be in retirement by now. Warrants some respect, but unlikely to find winning form, at this stage. Discount.
S Pardilla 176.00
47th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
4th on GC in Vuelta Ciclista a Murcia.
10th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
Not the worst here. Ignore.
M Frank 176.00
84th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
22nd on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
10th on GC in Giro del Trentino.
Ignore.
P Tiralongo 176.00
18th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
12th on GC in Tirreno-Adriatico.
18th on GC in Tour de Romandie.
Italian old-timer, climber, who has been aimed at this race. Good odds. Worthy of some consideration for a top-10 result.
M Carrara 201.00
16th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
25th on GC in Tirreno-Adriatico.
8th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
Italian, old-timer, climber. Ignore.
M Pinotti 201.00
9th on GC, here, in 2010.
DNF, here, last year.
This season:
22nd on GC in Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco.
9th on GC in Giro del Trentino.
Italian old-timer, all-rounder, who will be leading his BMC team, and looking for a top-10 finish. Very good value. Consider.
T J Slagter 251.00
Young Dutchman with some climbing ability. 6th on GC in Tour of Oman, earlier this season. Will find this a difficult test. Discount.
K Seeldrayers 251.00
49th on GC, here, last year.
Hard to have. Ignore.
F Kessiakoff 251.00
Recently diagnosed with asthma, and also “some kind of allergy”. Consider as a scratching.
P Niemiec 251.00
39th on GC, here, last year.
Polish rider with some climbing ability who is looking tired on his bike at this stage of his career. Ignore.
A Txurruka 251.00
6th on GC in Vuelta Ciclista Asturias, this season. Fair breakaway rider over steep stages, from Spain, who hasn’t ridden much in Italy throughout his career, and may only surprise with a good showing on a stage or two, here. Discount.
B Samoilau 301.00
Belarusian time-trialist who will look to get himself into an appropriate breakaway move, for the stage victory. Unlikely to figure into calculations on GC. Discount.
G Visconti 301.00
Giovanni was 48th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
7th in Clasica de Almeria.
16th in Milan-SanRemo.
10th in Gent-Wevelgem.
1st in Klasika Primavera.
26th in Amstel Gold Race.
One-day race expert, who will find three weeks in the saddle too much for his style of riding, and age. Maybe a stage surprise. Ignore.
C J Ochoa 301.00
30th on GC, here, 2009.
52nd on GC, here, 2010.
64th on GC, here, last year.
Rider from Venezuela, who is not getting any younger, and whose best riding here was earlier in his career. Ignore.
S Casar 301.00
Cunning Frenchman old-timer, climber, who will look to pilfer a stage or two when the gradient rises. 4th on GC in Tour of Oman, earlier this season. Does not come into calculations for the win overall. Discount.
A Ballan 401.00
First time here, surprisingly. Targeting a stage win, at best, at this stage. Overlook.
M Golas 401.00
All-round performer from Poland. Not the worst here. Take on trust.
T De Gendt 401.00
Belgium all-rounder. Not the worst here. Take on trust.
B Huzarski 401.00
Polish old-timer, who is not noted for his climbing ability. Ignore.
J M Garate 501.00
Rabobank are hoping for a breakaway stage result at best, for him, at this stage. Ignore.
G Thomas 501.00
Not suited by the parcours and has no chance of winning on GC. Ignore.
J Tschopp 501.00
126th on GC, here, 2009.
34th on GC, here, 2010.
15th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
3rd on Mountains Classification in Tour de Romandie.
Fair Swiss climber who is not noted for his attacking when climbs become very steep, and will need to find something special to come into calculations for a podium position. Some value. Take on trust.
Jackson Rodriguez 501.00
Aging rider from Venezuela, with little form to speak about. Take on trust.
M Cavendish 501.00
Ace sprinter with absolutely no chance to win on GC. Would need a motorized scooter to finish in the top-25. Odds could be double that and then some. Ignore.
S Lagutin 501.00
Uzbekistani rider who finished 5th on GC in Vuelta a Andalucia, earlier this season. Top-20 finish here on best form, most unlikely. Ignore.
J Barta 501.00
Jan is not an ideal candidate for this tour. So far this season, 1st on GC in Settimana Ciclistica Internazionale Coppi-Bartali, and a 1st place finish in Rund um Köln. Take on trust.
T Rohregger 501.00
Austraian rider who rarely wins and shouldn’t trouble the fancied contenders, here. A top-30 finish would surprise. Ignore.
D Ulissi 501.00
40th on GC, here, last year.
This season:
3rd on GC in Settimana Ciclistica Internazionale Coppi-Bartali.
Experienced young Italian Climber with some all-rounder credentials, who will have to lift his level of riding to contend for the overall win, here. Some value. Take on trust.
A Spezialetti 501.00
41st on GC, here, 2008.
74th on GC, here, 2009.
118th on GC, here, 2010.
106th on GC, here, last year.
Not even if he’s riding a motorized scooter. Ignore.
T Hushovd 501.00
Has shown evidence that he’s rebranding his style of riding to be more of a contender in Grand Tours, however this will be very difficult. Top-50 finish, most likely. Overlook.
S Denifl 501.00
Little-known Austraian rider with little form to speak about, and little evidence of winning ways. Take on trust.
J A Flecha 501.00
This season:
3rd on GC in Tour of Qatar.
3rd in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
20th in Tour of Flanders.
4th in Paris-Roubaix.
Prolific one-day rider, who won’t be advantaged by the obstacles and format, here. Overlook.
F Felline 501.00
Italian young rider, who has got most of his best results in sprints. Not suited, here. Ignore.
P P De Negri 501.00
No chance. Ignore.
P Stetina 501.00
21st on GC, here, last year.
This season:
15th on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
He’s not an Lance Armstrong, but he’s from the USofA, fairly young, lightly-raced, and can climb. Some Value. Worth some consideration to make his big-name breakthrough, here.
P Kennaugh 501.00
86th on GC, here, last year.
Ignore.
T Dekker 501.00
Scratched. Suffered an injury to his knee in a crash at Liege-Bastogne-Liege one-day race.
A Dyachenko 501.00
110th on GC, here, last year.
Some fair result so far this season, but unlikely to be comfortable in the peloton, here. Ignore.
S Pirazzi 501.00
120th on GC, here, 2010.
60th on GC, here, last year.
Italian rider, who is experienced here, and can climb. Take on trust.
O Zaugg 501.00
Swiss rider, who won’t trouble the main contenders, here. Ignore.
T Phinney 501.00
Talented young rider, born in the USofA. If he were to improve his climbing ability, he could surprise here at juicy odds. Take on trust.
I Stannard 501.00
Has some all-rounder credentials, but targeting a stage win only, at this stage. Overlook.
B De Clercq 501.00
Lines up here for the second year in a row. Last year he won stage 7, and finished 26th overall. Has spent time working on his time-trialing, but Lotto-Belisol will not want to put him under too much pressure. Excellent value for an EACH-WAY result. May offer some surprises. Should not be on the last line of betting. Consider.
My selections:
1.) R Kreuziger.
2.) J Gadret.
3.) D Cunego.
Rhoughie:) B De Clercq.
