2012 Liege-Bastogne-Liege Preview Guide.
La Doyenne or ‘the oldest’ is the final race of the Ardennes Classics. The weather forecast is for cold temps, chance of rain, and perhaps some light winds – all-in-all a tough day in the saddle for the riders over some 257kms in total!
P Gilbert 3.75 1st here, last year. Finally finding some good form with a 6th place finish at Amstel Gold Race, followed by an impressive 3rd in La Fleche Wallone, last start. Is now hungry for a winning result and comes into this as the standout rider. Suitably-priced and deserving of favouritism. Best Bet. WIN only.
F Schleck 8.00 2nd here, last year. 20th place finish last start, was impressive on account of experiencing a puncture at a critical stage. Odds too short. Worth the risk at this stage.
A Schleck 10.00 3rd here last year. Still short of peak physical fitness. Last start; was involved in two selective moves from the chasing pack, but finished in 81st place, 2mins25secs behind. Showing positive signs and must be considered as a dangerous contender. Some EACH-WAY value. Treat warily.
Joaquin Rodriguez 10.00 26th here, last year. Suited by the 1km climb to the finish for his 1st place result in La Fleche Wallone, last start, nevertheless the win held an element of luck. Good value for a podium place. Worthy of close consideration.
V Nibali 12.00 8th here, last year. 8th, last start. Worthy of some consideration for a podium position. Odds too short. Take on trust.
A Valverde 13.00 3rd here, 2010. Won here, in 2006 and 2008. Not finding strong form at present, and it appears as if he’s looking ahead to the Grand Tours. A top-25 place finish most likely. Odds too short. Worth the risk.
D Cunego 15.00 16th here, last year. Rode well at Giro del Trentino to finish in 2nd place on GC, recently, however a top-10 result is most likely, here. Take on trust.
S Sanchez 17.00 10th here, last year. Comes into calculations on account of his positive 7th place finish in Amstel Gold, last start. Worthy of some consideration. Take on trust.
J Vanendert 19.00 17th here, last year. Best recent result is a 2nd at Amstel Gold Race. Should not be discounted for an EACH-WAY result. Take on trust.
T Voeckler 19.00 In excellent form, attacking and riding with confidence. Good prospects for a podium result. One of the main contenders. Consider closely.
E Gasparotto 21.00 44th here, last year. Followed-up his 1st place finish in Amstel Gold Race with a handy 11th in La Fleche Wallone, last start. Take on trust.
Syl Chavanel 23.00 69th here, last year. Is doing enough to suggest that he’ll be in the selective moves. A top-25 result most likely. Take on trust.
D Martin 23.00 Inexperienced over this course, and unlikely to repeat his 6th place finish at La Fleche Wallone, last start. Discount.
M Albasini 26.00 87th here, last year. His 1st place finish on GC in Volta Ciclista a Catalunya was evident in his 2nd place finish in la Fleche Wallone, last start. Take on trust.
J Van Den Broeck 26.00 19th here, in 2010. 10th place finish in La Fleche Wallone, last start. Suited more to stage races. Take on trust.
J Hoogerland 34.00 24th here, last year. Difficult to gauge his form at this stage, but is a tough-as-nails rider who will give an honest account of himself. Take on trust.
M Breschel 34.00 Hit a good run of form throughout the Spring Northern Classics, and the tough Dane should not be discounted for a podium position, here. Consider closely.
S Gerrans 34.00 12th here, last year. Already has a 1st place finish in Milan-SanRemo, and his 20th place result, last start in Amstel Gold Race, suggest he cannot be discounted here for a podium position. Warrants respect. Should not be discounted.
R Uran 34.00 5th here, last year. Take on trust.
G Van Avermaet 41.00 7th here, last year. Has the strength to win this race and has had some good recent results, but if his team-mate Gilbert is feeling strong for the win, he may sacrifice his own chances of winning for him instead. Take on trust.
G Visconti 41.00 May be unsuited by some of the obstacles here, and unlikely to be amongst the main contenders in the run to the finish. Ignore.
L P Nordhaug 41.00 Likely to repeat last year’s 90th place finish, here. Odds too short. Ignore.
M Scarponi 41.00 Unsuited here at this stage. Overlook.
G Meersman 51.00 Not even if he’s riding a motorized scooter. Ignore.
R Nocentini 51.00 51st here, last year. Comes into this with some claims for a competitive finish on account of his good form in his last two starts: A 9th place finish in Amstel Gold Race, and a 12th in La Fleche Wallone. Worthy of some consideration for a podium position.
L Boom 51.00 Excellent, attacking ride in Paris-Roubaix to finish in 6th place, but then a 96th place finish in Amstel Gold Race was disappointing. Take on trust.
R Hesjedal 51.00 29th here, last year. Last two starts: 15th in Amstel Gold Race, 21st in Fleche Wallone. Take on trust. M Marcato 51.00 61st here, last year. Take on trust.
T De Gendt 51.00 91st here, last year. Take on trust. J J Rojas 51.00 56th here, last year. Take on trust. T Lofkvist 51.00 25th here, last year. Take on trust.
P Martens 67.00 13th here, last year. Take on trust.
F Gavazzi 67.00 68th here, last year. Ignore.
C A Sorensen 67.00 6th here, last year. Take on trust.
V Kiryienka 67.00 28th here, last year. Take on trust.
J Simon 67.00 19th in La Fleche Wallone, last start. Take on trust.
D Moreno 67.00 33rd here, last year. Take on trust.
D Cataldo 81.00 92nd here, last year. Ignore.
N Sorensen 81.00 21st here, last year. 16th in Amstel Gold Race, last start. Under the odds. Worthy of some consideration.
S Cummings 101.00 37th here, last year. Take on trust.
D Devenyns 101.00 46th here, last year. Take on trust.
J Pineau 126.00 20th here, last year. Take on trust.
J Voigt 151.00 Highly respected grandad of the sport and a favourite of many fans, is here only to support the Schleck brothers. Overlook.
S Scheirlinckx 151.00 10th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Take on trust.
J Bakelandts 151.00 16th in Brabantse Pijl, last start. Hard to have. Take on trust.
R Costa 151.00 Last two starts: 19th in Amstel Gold Race, 18th in La Fleche Wallone. Likes to get amongst the action, but difficult to see him amongst the main contenders. Take on trust.
A Dyachenko 151.00 Hard to have on current form. Overlook.
D Bellemakers 201.00 55th here, last year. Made an early selective move and kept fighting hard, last start. May perhaps be some EACH-WAY value at juicy odds. Worthy of some consideration.
J Coppel 201.00 80th here, last year. Take on trust.
S Paulinho 251.00 Old-timer, who is unlikely to be mentioned once throughout the race. Ignore.
J Frohlinger 251.00 Not much form to speak about so far this season, and unlikely to find it here. Overlook.
F Canuti 251.00 Ignore.
P Van Hecke 251.00 So far this season, his best results: 1st at Omloop van het Waasland, and a 20th place finish in E3 Harelbeke. Take on trust.
B Traksel 301.00 15th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, earlier. Take on trust.
P Serry 401.00 A young Belgium rider who merits some consideration on account of his 3rd place finish at De Brabantse Pijl, last start. Some EACH-WAY value. Take on trust.
My selections:
1.) P Gilbert
2.) S Gerrans
3.) T Voeckler
Roughie:) D Bellemakers
