2012 Amstel Gold Race preview guide.
Some 257kms over steep and narrow climbs, it’s essentially the Dutch classic, but is known as a race which is part of the Ardennes Classics. It is often seen to be a windy course, and with the current forecast of cold temps, partly cloudy skies, and some wind – this time should be no different, posing a sterner test for the riders.
Joaquin Rodriguez 5.50
Made a selective move which split-up the race some 30kms from the finish with the benefit of his hard-working team and also Omega Pharma-Quickstep. Is suited by his dynamic climbing ability over most of these punchy climbs. 2nd here, last year, however he has had more racing so far this season. Difficult to discount. Firmer in betting. Take on trust.
P Sagan 7.00
98th here, last year, 6mins31secs behind. Won’t be suited by some of the obstacles. Firmer in betting. Worth the risk. Discount.
S Gerrans 9.00
3rd here, last year, and he maintained good strength to find the podium ahead of some handy riders. Going very well so far this season by winning Milan-SanRemo, and will be in this race for a long way. Honest performer. Fair EACH-WAY value. One of the main contenders. Don’t discount.
P Gilbert 11.00
Finished 1st here, last year, but he was the defending champion and standout favourite, riding the race to perfection, and kicking hard up the final climb of the Cauberg to the finish. Struggling to find form, down on confidence, and doubts his ability to go with the favourites when the selective moves are made. Nevertheless, in De Brabantse Pijl, his 12th place finish was his best of the season in difficult conditions, and from a training perspective it points to a small improvement in strength. Under the odds. Must be respected. May show up on an EACH-WAY basis. Watch closely.
A Valverde 8.50
21st here, in 2009. Good 2nd place finish over the 171km Klasika Primavera de Amorebieta, last start. Movistar’s main man to win this highly-targeted race, so should have a comfortable, box-seat-ride, and also should be capable of handling the obstacles. Odds a little under, and has firmed in betting significantly. Difficult to discount. Take on trust.
S Sanchez 17.00
56th here, last year. 14th here, in 2009. A top 10 result would be a good outcome. Difficult to discount. Take on trust.
D Cunego 17.00
At this event; 15th in 2011. 6th in 2010. 5th in 2009. 1st in 2008. Following this logic a top-20 result is most likely. Under the odds and Slightly longer in the betting. Worth the risk.
C Evans 23.00
13th here, in 2010. Not known as a Classics rider. May test himself by forcing his way into selective moves or over selected obstacles, but is not expected to do more than keep out of trouble and have a fair training ride. Would be a major surprise to see him amogst the hopes for the finish as this looks more like a test of fitness and training ride. Take on trust.
O Freire 26.00
Solid results so far, especially amongst the Spring Classics, starting after a 7th place finish in Milan-SanRemo, then a 2nd in E3 Harelbeke, 4th in Gent-Wevelgem, a 12th in the Tour of Flanders, and rode well last start to finish 2nd in Brabantse Pijl. 6th here, last year. 14th here, in 2010. One of the main contenders, and presents as worthy of close consideration for an EACH-WAY result. Good value. Warrants respect.
G Van Avermaet 34.00
24th here, last year. 5th place finish last start in De Brabantse Pijl, over 195kms. Before that, 5th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 5th in Strade Bianche, 26th in E3 Harelbeke, 27th in Gent – Wevelgem, 4th in Tour of Flanders. Coming into it this with excellent prospects for a top EACH-WAY performance. Good value, and longer in the betting. Consider very closely.
J Van Den Broeck 41.00
18th here, last year. 20th here, in 2010. Unremarkable season thus far and difficult to envisage an improvement on last year’s result. Significantly longer in the betting. Ignore.
T Voeckler 23.00
Impressive and commanding performance last start to finish in 1st place at Brabantse Pijl, where he was the solo breakaway who extended his lead on the chasers in tricky conditions. Before that, an 8th place finish in the Tour of Flanders showed he was willing to ride with strength and determination. Appears energized in his riding, and he may give a good sight. Worthy of close consideration. Don’t discount.
R Gesink 26.00
At this event; 9th in 2011. 23rd in 2010. 3rd in 2009. Not setting the roads on fire and unlikely to find a podium position. Overlook.
V Nibali 26.00
21st here, in 2010. Started this season in excellent form by winning Tirreno-Adriatico on GC, and exhibiting determination to get good results for his team. Confirmed this by finishing 3rd in Milan-SanRemo. Will be rested. Take on trust.
D Martin 36.00
Good form, but experiences allergies at this time of the year. May find the route too difficult at this stage. Take on trust.
R Hesjedal 36.00
141st and more than 14mins behind, here, last year. 2nd here, in 2010. Take on trust.
C Horner 36.00
10th here, in 2010. Unlikely to repeat a similar performance this time around. Ignore.
O Gatto 41.00
18th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 3rd in Strade Bianche, 14th in Milan-SanRemo, 20th in Gent-Wevelgem. Coming into this with fair form, and will have his fans. A top-25 result will surprise. Take on trust.
W Poels 34.00
82nd here, last year. May find the obstacles to his liking. Difficult to dismiss. Under the odds and firmer in the betting. Take on trust.
F Schleck 41.00
22nd here, last year. 7th here, in 2010. A test of fitness and training ride performance is most likely at this stage. Hard to have. Take on trust.
G Meersman 41.00
Unlikely to trouble the fancied riders for a top-20 position. Ignore.
B Mollema 41.00
May only hear/see his name mentioned once throughout the proceedings. Ignore.
J Hoogerland 41.00
12th here, last year. 20th place finish in Milan-SanRemo. Will be rested. Tough-as-nails-style rider who will be suited by the obstacles. Warrants respect, but a top-25 result is most likely. Take on trust.
E Boasson Hagen 51.00
25th Milan-SanRemo, 16th E3 Harelbeke, 5th Gent-Wevelgem, 19th Tour of Flanders, 42nd Paris-Roubaix. Will need to recapture some earlier form to trouble the fancied riders here. Not far away from a podium finish, but will need a lot of luck here to do that, and yet again other more fancied riders have better prospects. Worth the risk. Overlook.
Syl Chavanel 51.00
16th here, last year. So far this season, showing up with honest performances and fair form with a, 2nd Dwars door Vlaanderen, 33rd E3 Harelbeke, 10th Tour of Flanders, and 27th Paris-Roubaix. Will find this a little trickier, but warrants consideration for a top-10 performance. Take on trust.
N Nuyens 51.00
At this event; 27th 2011. 26th 2010. 8th 2009. Won’t be suited by the obstacles, and a top-30 place finish is most likely. Ignore.
D Moreno 51.00
14th here, last year. Is suited for this race on paper. However, this may be a test too early in the season for a rider who gets stronger as the season progresses and the heat increases. Take on trust.
J Vanendert 51.00
13th here, last year. 7th in Brabantse Pijl, last start, was a good result. May surprise at nice odds with an EACH-WAY result. Don’t discount lightly.
A Schleck 51.00
Last year; was the lone breakaway rider at around 15kms from the finish, but just got caught inside the flamme rouge, and faded to finish 11th, 28secs behind. Last start; started favourite and crashed about 70kms from the finish. Hard to have at this stage as it appears as more of a training ride and test of fitness. Take on trust.
D Devenyns 61.00
52nd here, last year. 8th place finish, last start, in Brabantse Pijl was a good result. Take on trust.
P Velits 61.00
26th here, in 2009. Take on trust.
S Vanmarcke 61.00
Scratched, due to knee injury stemming from a crash in GP de Denain.
F Wegmann 61.00
20th here, last year. 25th here, in 2010. Take on trust.
P Martens 61.00
10th here, last year. 11th here, in 2010. Take on trust.
M Breschel 61.00
11th in E3 Harelbeke, 3rd in Gent-Wevelgem, 9th in Tour of Flanders. An in-form rider with good prospects for an EACH-WAY result, at juicy odds. Worthy of close consideration.
L Boom 81.00
Showed impressive strength and tenacity in Paris-Roubaix last start, finishing 6th, but more importantly making a solo counter-attack and stoking his group of chasers to bring back the leading winner. Seems to have found another level in his riding, and on Dutch soil he must warrant respect. Good EACH-WAY prospects. No surprise to see him amongst the selective moves. Consider very closely.
J Van Summeren 81.00
DNF here, last year. 27th here, in 2009. May find the obstacles beyond his style of riding. Overlook.
N Terpstra 81.00
1st place in Dwars door Vlaanderen, 25th in E3 Harelbeke, and went on with it by riding strongly for a 6th in the Tour of Flanders, and a 5th in Paris-Roubaix. An honest contender. Watch closely.
P Serry 81.00
76th here, last year. 3rd, last start, in De Brabantse Pijl, where he finished strongly. Take on trust.
G Visconti 81.00
Unlikely to figure in the finish on account of his domestique role in Movistar for this race. 114th here, last year. Ignore.
R Costa 81.00
DNF here, last year. A top-50 result would surprise. Ignore.
C A Sorensen 81.00
Looks suited over this course, and warrants some consideration at big odds for an EACH-WAY result. Don’t discount lightly.
C Riblon 101.00
DNF here, last year. Ignore.
B Tankink 101.00
19th here, last year. 29th here, in 2010. A top-10 result may appeal. Take on trust.
S Turgot 101.00
Excellent ride to finish in 2nd place in Paris-Roubaix. Then 22nd, last start, in De Brabantse Pijl, may have been a nice tune-up for this. Warrants respect, and looks appealing at such nice odds for an EACH-WAY result. Watch very closely.
B Hermans 101.00
8th here, last year. Take on trust.
J J Rojas 126.00
Unlikely to figure in the finish on account of his domestique role in Movistar for this race. 89th here, last year. Ignore.
My selections:
1.) T Voeckler
2.) L Boom
3.) C A Sorensen
Roughie:) S Turgot