The PGA Tour heads north to Minnesota on Friday (AEDT) for the fifth edition of the 3M Open.
After battling wide-open, unforgiving links fairways at Royal Liverpool last week, several will enjoy the cozy, confined comforts the TPC Twin Cities course offers.
Typically a birdie-fest, this course rewards consistent putting, as well as accuracy off the tee with a wide array of water hazards surrounding most holes.
It might be short on talent, but there’s no shortage of value to be found in this week’s field, and we’ve got you covered with our best 2023 3M Open bets below!
3M Open Best Bet
Adam Hadwin – $29.00
TPC Twin Cities has produced some major upsets during its short time on Tour, with Matthew Wolff famously winning in just his fourth appearance back in 2019, and Michael Thompson prevailing at long odds in 2020 after barely making the cut the year prior.
The Minnesota course was designed to produce birdies, favouring those that can find accuracy off the tee, avoid the ever present water hazards, and take full advantage of the fast greens.
With that in mind, I think Bogey Avoidance is a key metric this week, one that has been franked after Brian Harman was ranked top five heading into Royal Liverpool last week.
Further down in 11th, sits Canadian Adam Hadwin, well-rested after missing the cut at the John Deere Classic to start the month. Hadwin has been one of the best on Tour with the flat stick this year, ranked 33rd in Strokes Gained, and also importantly, 33rd in driving accuracy.
Lastly, the Twin Cities course compares quite nicely to PGA National, host of the Honda Classic – largely due to its water hazards. Hadwin fared nicely there back in 2021 finishing Top 10, so I think he rates a serious chance at good odds this week.
3M Open Best Value
Sungjae Im – $13.00
It’s been tough to get a read on Sungjae Im this year.
I thought he was a great bet at the LA Country Club in June where he missed the cut at the US Open, another disappointing major championship result after also missing the cut at Oak Hill.
There have been rumours that he might be nursing an injury after heading back to South Korea earlier in the year, but he seemed back to his very best at Royal Liverpool last week sharing in a tie for 20th.
As mentioned earlier, Twin Cities compares nicely to PGA National, making this a perfect course fit for the previous Honda Classic winner. If he can maintain some of his impressive numbers off the tee (23rd in Strokes Gained) he’ll be a real threat.
3M Open Best Roughie
Taylor Montgomery – $71.00
Ignore the fact he’s missed the cut at the John Deere and the Scottish Open, and instead focus on the fact this is Montgomery’s first look at the Twin Cities course.
Familiarity with the venue hasn’t been as crucial as it is on other PGA destinations throughout the year, and given there are a handful of short par 4’s to play this week, I think the American will feel right at home.
Montgomery currently ranks first in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders, not to mention the fact he’s also been one of the most consistent putters on average throughout the year.
Erik Van Rooyen – $151
If you really want to go long this week, look no further than van Rooyen this week.
The 33-year-old South African was once considered one of the Top 50 best players in the world, although you mightn’t know it considering he’s endured a horrendous two-year stretch that features only a pair of Top 10 finishes.
Fortunately, one of those came last week at the Barracuda Championship, where van Rooyen was seen storming home to finish T6 to claim a share of the prize money.
In the States, van Rooyen attended the University of Minnesota, so this is somewhat of a homecoming for him.
With some confidence (hopefully) on his side, I’ll be taking a flyer on him outright, and to finish anywhere close to the Top 20 ($7.00).
3M Open Best Bets
- 1 Unit Adam Hadwin (Win)
- 1 Unit Sungjae Im (Win)
- 0.5 Unit Taylor Montgomery (Top 20)
- 0.5 Unit Erik Van Rooyen (Top 20)
Same Game Multi
Adam Hadwin, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 Finish @ $13.24
