Brooks Koepka plays his first tournament since The Masters and he presents as the outstanding value on a course that should be perfect for him. Here are The Wolf’s selections for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Byron Nelson Championship Best Bet
Brooks Koepka, Outright Winner – $17.00
After two years at Trinity Forest where the tournament failed to attract big names or please crowds and sponsors, the PGA Tour has moved the nomadic event to TPC Craig Ranch. Designed by Tom Weiskopf, it features the rarely-seen zoysiagrass fairways and bentgrass greens. This could not set up more perfectly for four-time major champion Brooks Koepka.
Koepka won the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive and the 2019 St Jude at TPC Southwind, two courses that feature zoysiagrass fairways. He also won the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, a course designed by Tom Weiskopf.
His game is also the perfect fit for here, with TPC Craig Ranch long but expected to be an easy setup with plenty of scoring and a number around -20 set to win.
Koepka ranks Top 20 on Tour in Putting Average, Birdie or Better, One Putts, Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
He is recovering from surgery and that is the risk but this is a perfect look for the outstanding Kopeka.
Byron Nelson Championship Next Best
Sam Burns, Top 5 – $6.50
Sam Burns enjoyed a breakthrough win at the Valspar two weeks back, a significant breakthrough for a player who has been around the mark plenty over the last 12 months.
It would not surprise if he parlayed this into some more Top 5s and Top 10s in the coming months.
This course should be a nice fit. Burns performed well at both the Farmers Insurance and the Phoenix Open this year, two Weiskopf designed tracks. He is a long hitter who putts very well and that is the kind of profile that will thrive here. He ranks eighth in Birdie or Better, 16th in Putting Average and 20th in Driving Distance.
Burns also ranks Top 20 for rounds in the 60s and finding those that can go really low is a good angle to play here.
Byron Nelson Championship Value Bet
Anibarn Lahiri, Top 20 – $9.00
Going really wide here to find some value on $301 shot Anibarn Lahiri.
The world No.333 from India is yet to win on the PGA Tour but ranks among one of the best putters on Tour. He ranks second in One Putts while he is third in Putting Average. He ranks Top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting on bentgrass.
Lahiri has sound Texas form with a fifth at the Valero Texas Open earlier this year. He is a live runner at a big price.