Rosehill is where Sydney racing takes place this Saturday with a strong eight race card. The weather is overcast, the track is slow and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit. With the wet weather about, the track should play fair despite the fact the rail is out.
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Race One: Freshwood Plate 1500m
Back Me: Sticking with Exalted Warrior. I was quite keen on him when he resumed here a fortnight back, but he was tardy away and the eventual winner, Sniper Fire, had a picnic in front and pinched. There appears to be much more speed here, so I’m steering clear of Sniper Fire and going with the horse with fresh legs.
Big Danger: Mumbai Rock was a battling sixth to subsequent Group l winner Almalad first up at Randwick, then dropped back to the provincials and proved much too good for her rivals at Kembla Grange. The extra distance suits and should get the cart over courtesy of the top tip.
Roughie: Brazen Moss ran second to Sniper Fire in that race here, and I thought he was quite good considering he was out the back in a leader dominated race. 1500m looks ideal and the stable has had a wonderful run with their youngsters.
Race Two: Eric Kime Handicap (75) 1200m
Back Me: Ball Of Muscle has been quite impressive in two runs back from a break, each resulting in victories. He toughed it out strongly to win at Gosford last month after copping pressure in front. Been just under a month between breaks, so being on the fresh side should be ideal given how impressive he was first up at Newcastle.
Big Danger: Amovatio had the dream run on the back of a hot speed and charged clear late to score a dominant first up win. The way in which he did it may have been flattered by the hot speed, but he had promised to do something like that for a while, so that may have been the confidence boost he needed.
Roughie: Encostanati was crunched in betting last start at Warwick Farm and the son of Encosta De Lago didn’t let his supporters down with a strong all the way win, aided by a plum steer from Nash. Should roll forward again and take some beating.
Race Three: Sydney Markets Foundation Handicap (75) 1500m
Back Me: I’m pretty keen here on Dowdstown Charlie. Had good support when resuming last week at Randwick, and if you did jump on the bandwagon, it would have been a nightmare to watch given he got badly held up in the early part of the straight and only got warm when the race was all over. Should have won, but he gets a chance to redeem himself here on the quick back up, and should get conditions to suit again.
Big Danger: Amazon strung together three quality wins before going to Randwick and just getting pipped on the line by Sense And Reason. Has had three weeks to get over that now, drawn well and the stable is flying.
Roughie: Sabino Speed was left flat footed at Randwick but picked up and was quite solid late when second to Abbasso. Bolted in on the wet ground four back at Warwick Farm in a stronger race than this, so he looks well placed.
Race Four: Ardrossan Batlow Apples Handicap (84) 1400m
Back Me: First Class Ticket hasn’t been seen in five weeks when racing here over the 1500m where he finished a narrow second to promising galloper As Needed. I think coming back to 1400m suits, and along with the claim for Taylor Marshall, combined with a wet track, he looks the way to go.
Big Danger: Arrowette is racing quite well at the moment and culminated some good form with a tough win at Canterbury. Bred to swim, and I think that will give her a serious chance here because generally she struggles away from Canterbury.
Roughie: Forever Crazy doesn’t have an overly great first up record, but gee she has trialled very well leading up to her return to racing. Handles wet ground and does race very well on her home track, so I’d definitely include her in exotics.
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Race Five: Sydney Markets Limited Handicap 1400m
Back Me: First of my two best bets here in the shape of Scream Machine. He just looks the clear horse to beat based on his outstanding sixth to Spirit Of Boom in the Doomben 10,000. He was great there considering he was out the back and the front few dominated the tempo. He was an emergency for the Stradbroke last week and wouldn’t have disgraced himself there, so coming back to this level, 0.5kg over the minimum, loves Rosehill and has placed on slow ground. Should win with normal luck.
Big Danger: Tougher Than Ever hasn’t been seen since resuming at Hawkesbury and running a game fifth to Hurrara. He was caught wide there on a hot speed and slogged it out nicely, so I think with normal luck here from the gate, he should be in the mix.
Roughie: Taxmeifyoucan has been okay in two runs back from a break. Worked home evenly first up in the Wagga Town Plate, then did much the same at Randwick behind Eigelstein, who came out and won again last Saturday. The horse doesn’t mind the cut in the ground and won’t know himself with the weight.
Race Six: Gaypark United Fruit Handicap (85) 1350m
Back Me: Very hard race to sort out, so I’m going for some value in Wild And Proud. He has had his injury problems for a while, but on his best form he is very good, as we saw as a three year old where he beat Manawanui in the Hobartville in 2012 before losing it on protest. He hasn’t quite gone on with it since, but the key to him is getting on to a wet track, where he improves many lengths. Drawn the paint…I’ll have something on him each way.
Big Danger: Burbero hadn’t been all that great in two runs back from a break, but bounced back to his best when going to Canterbury and being lifted over the line by Nash. As we have seen in the past, once he greets the judge once, he usually holds his form, and with Nash sticking, there is no reason why he can’t win again.
Roughie: You’ll Never is starting to become a real milk drinker and a nightmare for punters, but he is racing quite well without winning. I think the key is the wide barrier, where he’ll be forced to go back to near last and be saved for one run, which has produced his best from earlier on in the prep.
Race Seven: The Million Dollar Mango Handicap (85) 1100m
Back Me: Earnest Ernest can be not genuine at times, but he has really raced well this preparation. Worked to the line gamely last start when fourth to Cradle Me, who is low flying at the moment, so that form reads well for this. Should get a nice spot behind the tempo and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Beckon had every chance in front when racing at Randwick a few weeks back but couldn’t quite kick clear and whacked away for second to Breakfast In Bed. Can handle a wet track and will be out of trouble in front. If he gets another soft lead, he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: Texan Lad is a speed demon from Scone who only knows one way to run and that is flat out fast. Went at a fast tempo at Hawkesbury last time out and was nabbed late by Biloxi, but she drops 5kg on that run here, and has gate one, rail out…great value chance.
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Race Eight: Freshmark Handicap 2000m
Back Me: Find a betting agency, back Excess Knowledge, watch him win and collect. Clear best bet on the program off the back of an outstanding trial win and a huge first up run at Randwick whens second to Eigelstein. That was over 1400m…2000m is a big, big tick, as is the wet track and a pretty thin race. Should be winning.
Big Danger: Forget I’m Imposing went around at Rosehill last time out given he did far too much work from the wide gate and was forced to sit on the speed, which isn’t his go. He prefers to sit off them and chase them do. Should get that from the barrier, but I doubt he’ll beat the top tip.
Roughie: Also forget Hoylonny and his first up run here given he was out the back and four wide with no cover. Trialled very well prior to that, up to 2000m and loves the sting out of the ground.
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Best Bet: Race Eight Number 5 Excess Knowledge
Next Best: Race Three Number 12 Dowdstown Charlie
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 3 Wild And Proud
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 10, 12
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 8, 15
Leg Three: 5, 6, 12, 15
Leg Four: 5
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.