A capacity field of three-year-olds has accepted for the Group 1 Australian Guineas at Flemington on Saturday in what is shaping up to be another memorable race over the mile.
Brilliant last start winner Tagaloa has been installed as the early favourite following his all-the-way win in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes, but he’ll need to produce another special performance with Caulfield Guineas winner Ole Kirk, Aysar, and the airborne Zou Dancer all lining up.
With several names still looking to punch their ticket to the All-Star Mile on March 13, this year’s Guineas shapes up to be one of the most important races of the Autumn.
Below, you can find our thoughts on each runner in our 2021 Australian Guineas Preview.
Ole Kirk
Star three-year-old Ole Kirk remains a question mark heading into the Guineas following a less-than convincing performance in last week’s Futurity Stakes at Caulfield.
The son of Written Tycoon began awkwardly from the barriers and failed to make up ground from the rear of the field to finish second-last.
Although he won the Caulfield Guineas over the mile last year, he clearly hasn’t returned the same horse this time in work and resembles nothing more than an each-way chance from the awkward draw.
Tagaloa
Last year’s Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa was sensational two weeks ago at Caulfield winning the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) in a brilliant front-running performance.
Luke Currie has retained the ride and is likely to employ similar tactics once again from the wide gate.
The three-year-old pulled up lame over this trip in the Caulfield Guineas last year, but based on what we saw two weeks ago, there’s no question he’ll see out the extra 200m just fine.
Providing Currie can run the race on his own terms up front, Tagaloa is the horse to beat.
Tagaloa can follow in Alligator Blood’s footsteps by becoming the seventh horse to complete the CS Hayes Stakes-Australian Guineas double.
Aysar
Aysar is looking to break a run of recent placings that dates all the way back to his superb runner-up performance in the Caulfield Guineas last year behind Ole Kirk.
The colt out of Deep Field has become famous for his near-misses, but he does rate strongly to finally breakthrough for another win based on recent form.
Aside from the fact the three-year-old finished second to Ole Kirk and Crosshaven during the Spring, he also finished runner-up to last week’s Oakleigh Plate dead heat winner Portland Sky two runs back in the Manfred Stakes.
With runs on the board over this trip and fitness on his side, he’s one of the major players.
Cherry Tortoni
Proven miler Cherry Tortoni was far from disgraced first-up in the CS Hayes Stakes when three lengths fourth to Tagaloa.
The three-year-old tends to go even better second-up from a spell and absolutely loves racing at Flemington where he’s found the money on three occasions.
Billy Egan rode him to a win over the track and trip in Listed company earlier in his career, and if he can offset the awkward draw nice and early, a place wouldn’t surprise.
Dom To Shoot
Dom To Shoot has made only the one start over the mile for third in last year’s Group 2 W.A Guineas at Ascot.
The son of Shooting To Win made an impression in his Flemington debut when resuming for fifth in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes, and is certainly capable of running a race now over further.
His second-up record reads well for this and champion jockey William Pike has plenty to work with from barrier 7.
Lunar Fox
Lunar Fox gets the blinkers on and the winkers off looking to improve on a disappointing first-up display in the CS Hayes Stakes.
The Foxwedge colt finished 12th in the field of 14 and would need to produce something very special to win a race of this quality.
Grandslam
Ciaron Maher and David Eustace’s lightly-raced colt Grandslam failed to let down from a three-wide position in the CS Hayes Stakes, but he was a surprise placegetter behind Ole Kirk and Aysar in last year’s Caulfield Guineas.
He’s capable of much better, but is tough to entertain after drawing the carpark.
Poland
Poland was no match at this level two runs back in the Caulfield Guineas over the mile, but he did bounce-back nicely with a bursting run to win the Group 2 Autumn Stakes by a length.
In what was a fast-run race, Jordan Childs stalked the speed patiently in third, a tactic Craig Williams will look to employ in his first ride back from a suspension.
The three-year-old son of So You Think seemed to have plenty left to give when he hit the line and no doubt has plenty of improvement yet to come.
Poland is looking to become the fifth horse since Light Fantastic (2008) to complete the Autumn Stakes – Australian Guineas double.
Beltoro
Beltoro won well at Bendigo on debut back in November before going one better at Flemington two weeks later with a two-length win in a Benchmark 70.
He’s progressed through the grades nicely up until this point and was far from disgraced when sixth in the CS Hayes Stakes last start.
The three-year-old stuck on well amongst a wall of horses hitting the line and there is definite improvement to come.
Embolism
Embolism bolted in to win by three lengths in a Benchmark 70 over the mile at Caulfield during the Spring before holding ground for fifth over the mile at Flemington in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes behind Crosshaven and Aysar.
His first-up effort was below par in the CS Hayes Stakes, but it’s safe to say he’ll appreciate the rise to the mile now.
The wide draw does make life tough for Damien Oliver, though.
Damien Oliver leads all current jockey’s with three wins in the Australian Guineas.
It’sourtime
It’sourtime hasn’t put a foot wrong finding the money in all four of his starts.
Danny O’Brien’s three-year-old was the clear winner on debut at Sale last month before making it a double two weeks later at Sandown over further in a Benchmark 64.
He showed some real speed before fading late for third two runs back in the Autumn Stakes behind Poland, followed by a similar runner-up performance back to the 1200m in the Zeditave Stakes last weekend.
The quick turnaround suggests he’s pulled up just fine and another top five performance would not surprise.
Jet Propulsion
Jet Propulsion scored his maiden second-up at Newcastle last August and looks ready for the step up to the mile now.
He was on heels over the closing stages when in the Autumn Stakes, but looks likely to settle closer to the speed this time around from the awkward draw.
Cambourne
Cambourne was well-supported first-up in the CS Hayes Stakes but failed to make up any ground from a wide position.
The tempo wasn’t to his liking that day, but he does look capable of improving back out to the mile.
Trainers Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr have a big opinion of this horse, and with a win to his name second-up in the past, he’s worth a look each-way.
Ironedge
This is a serious rise in class for Ironedge after winning his maiden two weeks ago at Ballarat.
The son of Shamus Award was competitive in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley last year, but would need to produce something special to beat some of these home.
Here To Shock
Here To Shock is out to the mile for the first time and is expected to find this tough after fading late for 10th in the CS Hayes Stakes.
Can’t have.
Zou Dancer
Zou Dancer can make it a hat-trick on Saturday with the red-hot Jamie Kah on board.
The pair were simply sensational last time out winning The Vanity (1400m) by close to five lengths, a run that suggests the Zoustar filly will appreciate the rise to the mile for the first time.
She’s two-from-two at Flemington so far, and with the track likely in the good range, a top three performance is again to be expected.
Lofty Star
Lofty Star remains the first emergency in the 2021 Australian Guineas field.
Australian Guineas Tip
Aysar at $8.50
