The Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival heats up this Saturday at Flemington with some of the country’s best sprinters on full display in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
The $1 million feature is headlined by Mark Walker’s multiple Group 1 winning mare Imperatriz, the five-year-old hoping to pick up where she left off last November when winning down the Flemington straight on Champions Day.
Joe Pride’s veteran six-year-old Private Eye looks the main danger to the short-priced favourite, while there’s always a case to be made for Bella Nipotina, and a couple of up-and-coming three-year-olds.
Group 1 racing is back, and you can find our thoughts on this year’s Lightning Stakes below!
2024 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Suggested Betting Strategy
- 3 Units Imperatriz
- 1 Unit I Am Unstoppable (Each Way)
2024 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes – Winner
It’s no surprise to find Mark Walker’s star Kiwi mare Imperatriz at a very short price on return.
The eight-time Group 1 winner was far from her best during a recent trial at Cranbourne last week, raising a few eyebrows in regards to how she’s handled her first Australian summer.
All reports out of the stable suggest she was in terrific order during a recent piece of track work at The Valley though, and as we saw last week with Mr Brightside, it’s fair to say trials can mean very little come race day.
The daughter of I Am Invincible was arguably the star of the spring last year, cementing her status as Australia’s best sprinter with a gutsy win in the Group 1 Champions Sprint – her first start at Flemington.
Five wins from six starts first-up makes for pleasant reading, and with Opie Bosson on board as usual, the pair look to have a range of options from the gate.
Suggested Bet: No. 4 Imperatriz
2024 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes – 2nd
Private Eye continues to age like a fine wine for trainer Joe Pride.
A multiple Group 1 winner in his own right, the son of Al Maher hasn’t had the best of luck at Flemington during his lengthy career, but he’s no stranger to winning down the famous straight, as we saw a couple of years ago when he stormed home to win the Gilgai Stakes by a clear two-length margin.
The six-year-old has typically been a better horse in the spring than the autumn, but there was still plenty to like about his run in the Newmarket Handicap around this time last year when only two lengths off In Secret.
His runs during the spring last year were just as impressive, notably running third in The Everest and a very narrow runner-up to Bella Nipotina Giga Kick Stakes to wrap up his prep.
How the tempo plays out will be key to his chances, but if a couple go forward early, he should be fighting out the finish with an equally likable first-up record to his name.
Suggested Bet: No. 1 Private Eye
2024 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes – 3rd
I Am Unstoppable is one of the more intriguing three-year-olds lining up in this year’s Lightning Stakes.
The Kennewell-trained colt has a bit of history on his side coming off a last-start runner-up performance in the Coolmore, a race that has produced the two most recent winners, Home Affairs and Coolangatta.
He’s winless in three starts at Flemington, but was unlucky not to finally break through in the Coolmore when held up badly down the centre of the track approaching the final 200m.
Where he wins up in the run is the big question, but after showing real potential last time in work, and off the back of an impressive Cranbourne trial, a place wouldn’t come as a surprise.
Suggested Bet: No. 8 I Am Unstoppable
2024 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes – 4th
Bella Nipotina is another proven Group 1 winner that has genuine claims against this small field.
Ciaron Maher’s mare has held her own at the very top level for the better part of two years, most recently winning the Giga Kick Stakes on Golden Eagle Day where she fell in by a lip after charging down the inside to deny Private Eye on the line.
I’m mindful of her record here at Headquarters (8:0-1-3) but she does warrant big respect with some of her best runs coming first-up off a spell.
With good form around the likes of Coolangatta and I Wish I Win last year, as well as a handy trial leading in, she should give this a good shake.
Suggested Bet: No. 3 Bella Nipotina
