The Autumn carnival is not too far away and this Saturday at Caulfield, things just start to warm up a touch with the running of the two Blue Diamond preview races, with a notable intriguing runner being the Team Hawkes first starter London Lolly in the fillies race given she is out of Charge Forward and former top mare Lovely Jubly.
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Race One: Carlton Draught Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: The pull in the weights inclines me to put Lonhtime on top. Great come from behind win first up at Yarra Valley, then looked the winner on the turn here last start, but just couldn’t quite finish it off over the final 100m. Gets down to 52kg after the claim for in form apprentice Katelyn Mallyon, drawn well, and being third up now, she should be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Big Danger: Balaclava Lady has found a new lease of life with different riding tactics at her last two outings, which have seen her sit on the pace and setting a strong tempo, seeing her win at Geelong and a game second at Flemington. Should lead here and take some beating.
Roughie: Kiss Me Ketut is a very genuine filly who always tries her heart out every time she steps out onto the race track, like she did last start at the Valley in a race dominated by the on pace runners. She was one of only a few to make up ground. On level weights with the older mares is a concern, but she is racing too well to dismiss.
$250 Lonhtime Free Bet
Race Two: City Of Glen Eira Handicap (84) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Very thin race, and the only class horse here is Iconic, so if he is anywhere near right, he really should be putting these away. Was last seen on Cup Day when second to Bernabeau, who is being aimed towards the Lightning next month, so that sort of form surely is good enough to win this.
Big Danger: Cavallo Nero is a gutsy sprinter resuming here after a handy Spring carnival, with the highlight being a close third in the Aurie’s Star to Broken and Temple Of Boom. Yet to place in four outings at Caulfield, but admittedly they were in much tougher races than this. With the pace on, he’ll get his to run on.
Roughie: If there is going to be a knockout horse at odds, I reckon it could be Paaratte Pat. He wasn’t too bad I thought here a couple of weeks back behind Lahou after covering ground. He won’t know himself with only 53kg on his back and boom Adelaide apprentice Jamie Kah takes the ride.
$250 Iconic Free Bet
Race Three: Blue Diamond Preview (Fillies) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Early market moves is a good guide to these early feature two year old races, and the market suggests that Eloping is the one, firming from $4.60 into $4. Looked very smart in winning on debut at Bendigo, and ran very good time. Drawn well here, should sit in the first couple and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Fontein Ruby was a late scratching here last week, but probably it was for the best given how pathetic the track played. Ran a really good race here on debut, and although drawn awkwardly, she has the services of Olly and is kept very safe in betting.
Roughie: Avanti was a most impressive debut winner at Seymour, sitting just off the pace before taking a little while to wind, but once she did, her last 150m was excellent and on the line she had her ears pricked, suggesting she had plenty left in the locker. Barrier makes it tough, but I like her.
$250 Eloping Free Bet
Race Four: Blue Diamond Preview (C & G) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: I think one of the top two will salute here. Going with Mohave because I think his run behind Law in the Breeders Plate was very good, and that race has stood up to be one of the better form references for two year olds in recent years, so happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: Cornrow did a stack of work to kick up and hold a spot in that Inglis race on Cox Plate Day, and he looked the winner 100m out, only to be bloused in the last couple of strides. With that tough run under his belt, and on his home track now, he should prove tough to beat.
Roughie: Berlutti must have shown something in trackwork, because he has been $11 into $7 without a public appearance and nothing special in the breeding. Where there is smoke, there is fire.
$250 Mohave Free Bet
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Race Five: Vaughan Webb Handicap 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Not keen on the favourite Orvieto, due to the fact his two career wins have been handed to him on a platter. Can’t have him at $3. Romancingthestone was very good to us last start, aided by a peach ride from young Cartwright, who maintains the ride. Had the dream sit one out and one back, peeled out on the turn, waited and waited, then kicked and won effortlessly. Has to step it up a notch here, but gets in well at the weights.
Big Danger: Bit surprised to see $8 on offer for Minaj given she is a stakes winner. Was last seen over the 1400m here in November when a close second in the Dandenong Stakes. Flies fresh, and should ping over from the wide barrier.
Roughie: Paddy’s Gem lowered the colours of Black Caviars younger sibling Belle Couture on debut ay Bendigo in impressive fashion, then was game in defeat when third to Spirits Dance, whom she meets here much better off at the weights.
$250 Orvieto Free Bet
Race Six: John Dillon Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Anlon again for me. Strung together two very good wins at Flemington, with the latter being in the Chester Manifold, where he just got the better of Limes in a deceptive finish. Meets Limes worse off at the weights, but Brad Rawiller is back on, and he is at Caulfield, where I think he’ll be better suited with the shorter straight, which suits his racing style.
Big Danger: Limes did all the work of dragging the field up to the two tearaway leaders, hit the lead 200m out, and nearly held off the challenge of Anlon. He does get the weight pull, but is drawn poorly, so he may have to do some work, but is the class runner. Also worth noting Star Rolling, who could be a star his racing manners have improved since spelling.
Roughie: Chase The Rainbow went into everyones blackbook with his fast finishing fourth in the Chester Manifold, coming from near last on the turn. For mine, I’d want to see him do it again here before declaring he is back to his best. I’ll be watching him, but if you are a fan of the horse, then certainly have something on him.
$250 Anlon Free Bet
Race Seven: Roy Higgins/Wylie Dalziel Handicap (84) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: He was our best bet at Flemington a couple of weeks ago, and we’ll declare Nesbo our best bet again here. He was superb at Flemington. He sat three or four pairs back on the rail before getting shuffled back to near last on the turn, but some Rawiller magic unfolded. He saved all the ground by hugging the fence, angled into the clear 300m, dashed to the front and held on for a very good win. For mine, he is much better suited when he has a bunny, and from the wide barrier, Williams will have to go back and follow something into the race, which is ideal for his racing style.
Big Danger: Punters are sticking solid with Quick Snitzel despite his pretty ordinary third over the mile here last start to our roughie. Fair enough, he did make ground late, but for a $1.55 favourite, he was disappointing. This is D-Day for his supporters, and if he fails again, might be time to sack him.
Roughie: The Wingman won that race, and was pretty much lifted to the winning post by Olly, who sticks with the horse. Up in weight and distance, but take away the top tip, and maybe the danger, and it’s a pretty ordinary race. He can run well again with a conservative ride.
$250 Nesbo Free Bet
Race Eight: Tile Importer Handicap (96) 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Tough race to end the afternoon. Going with the Team Cummings runner Reigning, who was good in defeat over the 2500m at Flemington when third to Angola. He sat back, cut the corner and hit the lead 300m out, but just got tired late, and probably bogged down by the inferior part of the track. Back 100m in trip and a good barrier ensures him as one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Instrumentalist is a very tough, one paced type for Chris Waller. Was given a gem ride from Olly to win two back, then worked home okay in that Angola race without really threatening. Olly back on, drawn well and is rock hard fit, along the fact he’ll eat up the 2400m.
Roughie: Angelology was ridden far too close to the tempo in that Angola race, and was a beaten horse on the home turn. Jamie Kah rides, and she rode the horse well in his last run from the previous prep. With a quiet ride, and clear room, he can turn his form around.
$250 Reigning Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 10 Nesbo (Best Odds: $5.50)
Next Best: Race Six Number 4 Anlon (Best Odds: $3.80)
Best Roughie: Romancingthestone (Best Odds: $8.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 10
$50 Investment = 8.68% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.