The Brisbane Carnival kicks off this Saturday at Doomben with the $400,000 Group l BTC Cup (1200m). Champion sprinter Buffering has won three majors already during his career, but is yet to get one on his home soil in Brisbane. He’ll have plenty of pressure to break the duck up north, with the likes of Temple Of Boom, Spirit Of Boom and Knoydart all set to take their place.
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Race One: Grinders Coffee Handicap 1400m
Back Me: No reason why Elusive Storm can’t get the job done here. She has been a bit of a surprise packet this time in, winning three races from as many runs, all in impressive fashion. Should ping over to the lead, do as she pleases speed wise and prove very hard to get past.
Big Danger: Magic In Motion finished second to Elusive Storm last start, and seemingly had her chance. What gives her a serious chance here is the weight pull in her favour and the gun draw. If the top tip is going to get beat, it will come at the hands of this mare.
Roughie: Miss Bradbury has finished behind Elusive Storm at her past couple and hasn’t had a great deal of luck in each. Two back she got badly held up in the straight when travelling like a danger, then was caught wide last start and couldn’t go on with it. She’ll do no work from the rails gate here and is a must for exotics.
Race Two: XXXX Gold Handicap (90) 1600m
Back Me: Getting close to D-Day for Lady Echelon now. All four runs this time in have been very good yet hasn’t gone on to win. Steps away from open company now, and despite the weight rise, she looks beautifully placed here and maps very well. No excuses today if she gets rolled.
Big Danger: Cracco is a most consistent galloper for Brian Smith who has placed in eight of his past ten outings. Set the speed last time out and was just caught near the line by Carmora. Leading isn’t his go, so from the good barrier here, I expect him to be ridden with cover. Form isn’t as strong as the top tips, but can still threaten with the right run.
Roughie: Interesting runner is the kiwi stayer King Kamada, who is no doubt being aimed at races like the Brisbane Cup and Caloundra Cup. Finished a solid fifth at Ellerslie to boom stayer Who Shot Thebarman, then was freshened up and resumed the other day at Awapuni where he ran a slashing second. He is the class horse and appears good enough to win over the mile despite being better over further.
Race Three: Channel Seven Mick Dittman Plate 1110m
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for Havana to bounce back in the winners list. Came back this time in as a gelding and bolted in first up at Cabterbury, then worked to the line strongly late in the Royal Sovereign behind Sidestep, who would have been a leading contender in the BTC Cup had he not succumbed to injury, so Havana looks beautifully placed here against the locals and should be too good.
Big Danger: Agitate is the quickest horse out of the barriers in Brisbane, and possibly even Australia. He jumps, runs and tries his heart out, as he did last start when attempting to lead all the way but couldn’t quite go on with late and was grabbed close to home. 1110m is a test for him, so perhaps look for Browne to ride with a trail if circumstances allow. Still, a great chance to fill a drum.
Roughie: Keep an eye on this kiwi youngster, Rough Copy. Best form will be over further, and his main aim will be the QLD Guineas, but he has plenty of talent and does have some good form back home to suggest he’ll be a force at this level during the Carnival.
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Race Four: Bollinger Champagne Classic 1200m
Back Me: Pace galore in this event and the winner should come from behind it. Been really impressed with the two wins of Furbish. Won like a star on debut when coming from the tail and spanking them, then stepped up to 1300m and was very powerful through the line. Coming back to 1200m looks ideal as the speed should be hot, plus he has been in Brisbane a little bit longer than his Sydney counterparts, so I’ll be in his corner here.
Big Danger: Shaumari sat back in a farcical run edition of the Royal Randwick Stakes during the Championships, where Eloping crawled them in front and sprinted in the straight to win. Pace will be more genuine here, which will suit this daughter of rising superstar sire Medaglia D’Oro and she should prove very hard to hold out.
Roughie: Mohave had a mixed Autumn, winning impressively first up in the Blue Diamond Preview, then running terribly in the Prelude before a good sixth to stablemate Earthquake in the big one. Sent to the paddock since, has come back and trialled really nicely a couple of weeks back at Randwick. Don’t leave him out.
Race Five: Landfills Logistics Chairman’s Handicap 2000m
Back Me: Tough race to sort out, but once again, Chris Waller comes to the fore with another import, this time with Danchai, who worked home very strongly in the straight behind Spillway in the JRA Plate. He has opened up quite short in the betting, but if he holds his form, he should just about win.
Big Danger: Really interested to see how Eight’s A Party goes here. He has only had the seven career starts to date, but gee he has shown great promise. He has been desperately unlucky in both runs this prep, getting a long way back first up then got held up last time out and really savaged the line. 2000m is a big tick. The only query I have is the fact he is at Doomben. Eagle Farm will suit him much better, so even though I think he is a massive chance here, I wouldn’t sack him if he gets beat here because there is a good race in him.
Roughie: Zennista had reasonable success during the Carnival last year, racing consistently at this level and picking up the Caloundra Cup. She has had runs this time back in New Zealand and has been quite good over unsuitable trips. Would love some rain to come, but she can handle a firm surface and be competitive.
Race Six: Mittys Rough Habit Plate 2000m
Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of Arki. He has looked highly impressive in two runs this time in, winning on both occasions at the Gold Coast and Ipswich respectively. He should have plenty left in the tank and meets a bunch of horses where a majority of them have had a very tough Autumn carnival, whereas this bloke is bursting onto the scene.
Big Danger: Pheidon tried his guts out in the Frank Packer last time out, but was beaten by an Olly special on Arabian Gold. He has done everything on one prep with a couple of freshen ups here and there, so that’s the concern, but he seems to still enjoy his racing. Nash should take full advantage of the good draw and prove a tough nut to crack.
Roughie: Bodega Negra wohome nicely late in the Gunsynd Classic when sixth to Hopfgarten. He has Derby written all over him, so look for him to again hit the line late as he heads towards the 2400m race in a few weeks.
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Race Seven: Bundaberg Distilling BTC Cup 1200m
Back Me: Buffering is the best bet across Australia this weekend. He just looks so well placed in this, and is in great form. First up run in the Challenge was just fair, then was outstanding in defeat when beaten by the worlds best sprinter in Lankan Rupee. There appears to be no speed whatsoever in the race apart from him, although it’ll be interesting to see what Temple Of Boom does, whether he serves it up and puts the race on a platter for Spirit Of Boom. Whatever the case, he is the Bulldog of Australian racing and his class and toughness should get him home.
Big Danger: Tiger Tees was ridden a touch too close to the tempo in the All Aged and didn’t have anything left for the finish but still ran a credible third to Hana’s Goal. He should get a dream sit off a good tempo, and if the rain comes, he is right in the mix and his odds of $13 will tumble.
Roughie: Knockout chance for me at massive odds is Peron. Forget she went around in the Sapphire because she was near the rear in a race that was run at a laughable tempo set by Cosmic Endeavour. This is the first time she will race in Brisbane since this time last year where she was near unbeatable and her only blemish was behind Red Tracer in the Tatt’s Tiara. Strong speed, small field, weight pull…if she is anywhere near right, she can storm home and win.
Race Eight: Yellowglen Bribie Handicap 1110m
Back Me: Taking on the North Queensland star Our Boy Malachi given there is abundance of speed surrounding him and I am putting Excellantes on top. He is a bit of a hit and miss galloper, but when he is right, he is very good, like he was last start in the Hinkler when getting the split in the straight and savaging the line late to win. The nails will be hammered into the coffin if they go forward from the gate, so I am tipping Browne will try and get three wide cover, perhaps midfield or slightly worse, peel wide on the turn and unleash late.
Big Danger: Cape Kidnappers is a beauty for Kelly Schweida, winning seven and runner up on three occasions in a ten start career. Brought up to fitness with a very slick trial win a couple of weeks back and he is another who should lap up a fast run race.
Roughie: Doubtfilly promised so much early on in her career, highlighted by her unlucky fourth to Pierro in the 2012 Golden Slipper, but she really hasn’t set the world on fire to that extent ever since. I didn’t mind the way she trialled the other day behind Enquare, who ran really well last weekend. On her old form, she’d be a chance, and she is at good odds.
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 1 Buffering
Next Best: Race Three Number 6 Havana
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 11 Arki
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 11, 14
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6
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