Impressive last start victories by Kirramosa and Zanbagh in the past fortnight, has seen the VRC Oaks betting market undergo some significant changes in the past week. Kirramaso could not have been more impressive in winning Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes, generally the best form reference to the VRC Oaks and whilst Zanbagh’s win came in a restricted race at Ballart, she was impressive and bred to be more than handy – especially over the longer trips. They head the market – Kirramosa ($3.80), Zanbagh ($4.20) – with May’s Dream ($4.80), Gypsy Diamond ($8.00) and Solicit ($9.00) the three other filly under double figures.
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1. MAY’S DREAM – N Hall (5)
After winning a Caulfield Open (1400m) race as the 6/4 favourite, the Darren Weir trained mare was seen as the only legitimate danger to Guelph in the 1000 Guineas (1600m). Punters were right as she chased home the star filly in the 1000 Guineas running second, 1 ¾ lengths away. With no Guelph in the Wakeful, plus the step up to 2000m seen as an advantage, May’s Dream was sent out the short 5/4 favourite on Saturday. She was given her chance in the run but was no match for Kirramosa over the final 100m and finished second, 1 ¼ lengths away. Will be in the box seat from gate five but was beaten fair and square by the winner on Saturday.
2. ARABIAN GOLD – J Bowman (1)
After chasing home Guelph in the G2 Tea Rose and G1 Flight Stakes, where she finished second and fourth respectively, the Dubawi filly headed south for the Listed Ethereal Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield. A lovely run throughout had her in the box seat and she recorded a half length win as the 9/4 favourite over Solicit. She again had a nice run in Saturday’s Wakeful (2000m) and boxed on evenly late to run fourth (beaten 1.9 lengths) behind Kirramosa. Probably has had enough on the line in last two starts but will need to travel an extra 500m here.
3. KIRRAMOSA – N Rawiller (10)
Was only warming up late three starts back in the Listed Reginald Allen (1400m) and again, took her time to wind up when hitting the line in good style only to be out-bobbed by Best Case in a BM 75 at Randwick. It was a good effort against males at Randwick and she was shipped south for the Wakeful Stakes on Saturday. As she has done at each of her starts, she settled well back in the field, last in fact, before being taken to the centre of the track as the field straightened for the run home. She appreciated the chance up the long Flemington straight to wind up and relished the 2000m trip. It’s hard to make a case for any of those she accounted for on Saturday, being able to turn the tables on her here.
4. GYPSY DIAMOND – J McDonald (8)
Plain efforts in the Listed Reginald Allen (seventh of eleven) and the G1 1000 Guineas (sixth of ninth), saw this John O’Shea trained filly start a 14/1 shot in the G2 Fillies Classic at Moonee Valley two starts back. From the inside gate she sat on the leader and favourite’s back, Gregers, throughout the run before peeling out at the top of the straight and finished too well, recording a long neck win. She then drew wide in Saturday’s Wakeful (2000m) and closed well without threatening from the tail of the field to run fifth (beaten 2.1 lengths). Honest effort last start but, not good enough to be winning the VRC Oaks.
5. SOLICIT – G Boss (4)
Nothing if not honest is this daughter of Street Cry. She won her first two starts this preparation and has since been placed in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes, Listed Ethereal Stakes and last start, the G2 Wakeful Stakes. She, unlike many of the others who took up a forward position in the Wakeful, stuck on well in the run home and finished third behind Kirramosa and May’s Dream – both whom came with swooping runs. She is in rock solid form and from gate four; Boss will have her positioned to advantage throughout. Should one of the favourites have a chink in their armour, she could be the one to find it out.
6. QUAYSIDE – B Avdulla (7)
Improving mare from David Payne’s Randwick stables who lines up here after registering a strong 1 ¾ length win in a BM 64 (1900m) at Rosehill last start. The win was the first of her career and also, her first attempt past a mile. She was stepping up from 1400m at her previous start so would expect her to have derived plenty of benefit for having had that run. Her dam Quays, ran fifth in the VRC Oaks of 2001 before placing in both the AJC Oaks and QLD Oaks later in the season. Certainly bred to get the trip and whilst this race may be a touch soon in her career, would expect her to run better than her current quote of $21 would suggest.
7. EVERY FAITH – M Zahra (9)
Not A Single Doubt filly who won a Seymour Maiden when resuming from a spell in September. She backed that up with another solid effort when second in a BM 64 at her following start but since stepping up to the Group races in three subsequent runs, has found herself to be a little of the pace. She started a 60/1 chance in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes and only plugged home from the tail of the field running eighth (beaten 3.7 lengths). Too much improvement to be made.
8. ZANBAGH – B Shinn (2)
Trainer and Jockey have combined with great success in the past 12 months, Skeyrush, Streama, Toydini etc, and the pair has a great chance to build on their record with the promising Zanbagh. It’s been an unusual preparation for an Oaks campaign but the filly continues to improve significantly with every start and her timing could be perfect come Thursday. She won a Ballarat Maiden two starts back before retuning to the same track and claiming the RST 64 (on a heavy track) race by five lengths over thirteen competitors. The race was over 2000m and the further they went, the bigger the margin. She takes a big step up in class and be giving most of her competitors a start but not prepared to right her off.
9. MELALEUCA – B Prebble (3)
After winning a Ballarat Maiden three starts ago by six lengths and, backing that up with a pleasing effort when fourth (beaten 1.9 lengths) behind Arabian Gold in the Listed Ethereal Stakes, expected a bit more from her than what she produced in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes. Admittedly, from a wide draw, she didn’t have a great deal of luck finding a spot in the run but was quickly under pressure upon straightening and finished tenth of twelve. She may be ridden a little closer to the speed here from a better draw and whilst a better performance would not surprise, doubt it would be enough for her to be winning here.
10. TEAR GAS – C Williams (6)
Won a Kyneton Maiden two starts back in good style, winning by 2 ¾ lengths before lining up in the Wakeful Stakes. Found a nice spot in the run but also a bit of traffic in the straight. Given that she was coming off a maiden win, her effort wasn’t too bad (ninth of twelve) but still not good enough to suggest that she’ll be the 2013 VRC Oaks winner.
OVERVIEW
Solicit will go forward and would expect Arabian Gold, Melaleuca and May’s Dream to be handy. Pace should be only fair given the small number of runner and the fact that a few of them, including the top two selections, Kirramosa and Zanbagh, like time to find their feet. Kirramosa could not have been more in impressive winning the Wakeful on Saturday 2500m will pose little problem. Zanbagh is highly promising but just some concern that this race may be a couple of months too soon for her. Solicit is honest and if Boss is able to dictate terms in front, she will give them something to catch. May’s Dream and Quayside to round out the placings.
- KIRRAMOSA
- ZANBAGH
- MAY’S DREAM
- SOLICIT
