With Melbourne Cup entries now closed, David Hegan can get to work on finalising how much weight each horse will carry in this year’s $8.5 million Group 1 at Flemington.

And Racing Victoria’s chief handicapper said competition for spots could be harder than any other of the post-Covid years.

Total entries of 123 might be down nine on last year, but international nominations are up from 15 to 20, including Grosvenor Square, Illinois, Jan Brueghel, Harbour Wind, Delius and Magical Zoe, which makes Hegan think those on the limit weight might struggle to gain a start.

“If we do get one or two more of those internationals, it may just mean that the bar (is raised) and you might have to be off the minimum this year to get a run,” Hegan said.

“That means The Archer and The Bart Cummings become essential and then, after The Bart Cummings, the Moonee Valley Cup, Geelong Cup and even the Bendigo Cup are almost going to become win-and-you’re-in races.

“They’re going to be full of horses trying to get that last spot without The Archer being there on Derby Day.”

Also among the international entries for the November 5 event is Vauban, who ran 14th as $5.50 favourite last year.

The Willie Mullins-trained gelding carried 55kg last year, off a biggest win in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes, and he was last seen winning the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York but Hegan said his form and the strength of the nominations means his 2024 weight won’t vary greatly.

“On ratings now, he’s running basically where we had him last year, so we just have to make the assessment of how much weight do we put in for his run last year compared to his last start win in the Lonsdale Cup,” Hegan said.

“But that was a Group 2 win, compared to last year his best was Group 3, so you can say maybe he’s improved half-a-kilo.

“You can probably expect him to be around a similar mark running to similar ratings.”

The topweight is likely to be Without A Fight, who won last year’s edition with 56.5kg, and Hegan said he would be drawing on the horse who preceded him as a guide for his weight.

“Gold Trip carried 57.5 to win, but the weights were raised 1kg that year, so I assessed that as carrying 56.5kg to win for the purpose of historical look-back,” Hegan said.

“He progressed 2kg in the weights – he went from 56.5kg off a true scale to 58.5kg – so you can probably expect something similar with Without A Fight.”

Hegan will announce the weights for this year’s Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, September 17.