Victorian racing on Saturday will be headlined at Caulfield racecourse where it will host an eight race program which will be headlined by the Easter Cup which looks a terrific edition of the race this year. Overall the day includes some very competitive large fields which provides value for punters and with the current weather it looks a good betting day.
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Race One: Jack Elliott Handicap 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Goldoni’s first race in Australia last start was very impressive in which he went back to last and made up a stack of ground. Looks a type that can progress from that run and should be winning this if he is to go onto better races.
Don’t Back Me: Cosmic Causeway’s run last start was pretty good against a decent field although he is yet to win this preparation and from the outside barrier may be posted wide so im happy to risk him here.
Big Danger: Prizum has been racing in the better races compared to the other runners here and the step back in class will suit him.
Roughie: King Diamond is a very good horse and despite his poor first up record he looks the horse at big odds who could run into the placings.
$250 Goldoni Free Bet
Race Two: Geoff Murphy Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Australia Day was luckless last start in the Cinderella Stakes at Moprhettville which was a good quality field. Goes up against some runners coming out of country races, so the $5 on offer looks good value whilst it lasts.
Don’t Back Me: Trust In A Gust is coming out of the same race as Hard Stride but had a much better run in transit i think he is the worse of the runners out of that race so im happy to leave him out.
Big Danger: Weinholt led a good field out last start before tiring late. That was a good field and he finds easier company here and will likely start favourite.
Roughie: Fantome Gris was held up last start at Sandown and hit the line very strongly late. She will start in double figure odds and looks like a good horse in the making.
$250 Australia Day Free Bet
Race Three: Bill Collins Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Aneto gets a slight weight drop heading into the race and i thought her run last start was very good when hitting the line strongly to finish behind Minnie Downs.
Don’t Back Me: Sweet Ella is coming out of relatively strong mid week Sandown race but from barrier 12 and no weight advantage i think she is a risk at her current odds.
Big Danger: Minnie Downs has been very gallant in her last few runs where she has been posted wide. From barrier five she will get a good run during transit and be hard to keep out.
Roughie: Biancon Rose has a very good third up record as well as liking the Caulfield track and distance. At $31 looks a horse that could get up at big odds.
$250 Aneto Free Bet
Race Four: Noel Rundle Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Last Day was disappointing last start in South Australia but he is a very good horse when he can put it together which i think he can on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Bradman won the Bendigo Guineas last start but there was a lot of unlucky horses in that race which he faces again here.
Big Danger: Pronto Pronto had no luck last start when running behind Bradman. Will have to carry 60kg on Saturday which is a little bit of a worry but looks the main danger.
Roughie: Churchill Express is coming out of the Bendigo Guineas as well and had no luck during the run. Drops weight from that run and has drawn out wide so should get every hope this time around at $31.
$250 Last Day Free Bet
Race Five: Bert Bryant Handicap 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Winter King ran very well last preparation and will be making his return on Saturday. He drops weight from his last run and from barrier four should get a good run during the race and is currently $8.50 in betting.
Don’t Back Me: Rescue Mission has been up for a long time. Ran well in the Oakleigh Plate but that hasn’t been a good form race. Drawn wide and at $3.60 looks well under the odds.
Big Danger: African Pulse is a very lightly raced galloper and looks the main danger to Winter King in the race.
Roughie: General Truce’s run last start in the Bob Hoysted was very good i thought and with the 2kg claim will get a weight relief from that run on Saturday where he is a $21 chance.
$250 Winter King Free Bet
Race Six: Victoria Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Budriguez is a very underrated horse. His run in the Blamey was huge and that form is well above the other runners in the race and he hasn’t been lumped too much weight. Get the $6.50 on offer now before it goes.
Don’t Back Me: Under The Eiffel has won his last two races although he meets a tougher field here and i very much doubt he can make it three victories in a row and at $5 he looks very poor value.
Big Danger: Sertorius is very well weighted in this race and has been backed in the market.
Roughie: Parthian hit the line well first up and he is much better in his second run in a preparation. Will get back and hit the line well which makes me think the $21 on offer is good value.
$250 Budriguez Free Bet
Race Seven: Easter Cup 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Callanish should be able get a relatively easy lead in this race and will give a good kick and be very hard to run down from the back where the rest of the horses in the market will be coming from.
Don’t Back Me: Jet Away won impressively at his first Australian start. Things went his way in that race and he goes up weight, will get back in a race with not much speed and with the backing he looks too short in the market.
Big Danger: If you have a look at Folding Gear’s third up record you will see why i think he is a very good chance in this race. He has won three from three at his third start and it looks to be his best run in a preparation.
Roughie: Wall Street wasn’t disgraced in Bendigo last start and his run before that in the Blamey Stakes was very good. Looks good value at $17.
$250 Callanish Free Bet
Race Eight: Adams Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Bass Strait’s form compared to his rivals here looks far better if he can have a clear run throughout you couldn’t see him getting beaten the only query is that he goes back and in a big field might find trouble.
Don’t Back Me: He’snotthemessiah won last start but this is a much tougher task and at the odds i dont think he is very good value. But its a tough race to rule a horse out.
Big Danger: White Sambuca looks to be coming out of the best form race outside of the favourite and if he can get a decent run from barrier fourteen he looks the danger to the top tip.
Roughie: Chicharito flew home to win last start and in a big field the pace should be on allowing him the opportunity to do the same thing here and he is currently at $17.
$250 Bass Strait Free Bet
Best Bet: Bass Strait’s form is just much better than the field he is facing on Saturday and class goes along way in racing which is why i have him as my best bet of the day.
Next Best: The next best bet of the day is in Race 2 with Australia Day who i think has a very good chance at $5 in a winnable race.
Best Roughie: Not a double figure roughie this week but it looks a skinny program where favourites should dominate but Winter King looks great value at $8.50.
