The first of two Group 1 races on the final day of Flemington’s Melbourne Cup carnival is the Emirates Stakes, formerly the Mackinnon Stakes which was held on Derby Day. The re-scheduling has seen an increased number of acceptances compared to recent years, with thirteen lining up in the 2000m WFA event. The team that secured this year’s Melbourne Cup are back together again with The United States – the early favourite. UK Charlie Appleby is also well positioned add to his impressive results this spring with Scottish, second in this year’s Caulfield Cup behind Jameka, on the second line of betting. In early markets, they are they only two runners under double figure odds. Not surprising that six of the last seven winners of this race have backed up from the Cox Plate. In this year’s field, only Hauraki, Happy Clapper, Vadamos and Happy Trails contested the Cox Plate this year.
Odds: View the Emirates Stakes Odds
1.HAPPY TRAILS – D Dunn (8)
The now 9yo has struggled to capture his best form this spring, with his three starts this campaign resulting in him finishing well down the track. He finished fifth (7.8 lengths) in the Turnbull Stakes before crossing the line last in the Cox Plate, almost fifteen lengths from Winx. Does have a good record this track/trip – he finished close-up (1.9 lengths) behind Preferment in the Australian Cup earlier this year, but in his current form, hard to see him replicating that performance.
2. HAURAKI – J McDonald (1)
Sensational win in the Epsom Handicap where he came from last to register a narrow margin over Dibayni and Mackintosh. Running fifth in the Epsom was Le Romain, Saturday’s winner of the Group 1 Cantala Stakes – a race where The United States finished fourth. Hauraki was well beaten in the Cox Plate at his most recent start, but the form out o that race has been outstanding and his previous effort in a 2000m Group 1 WFA, saw him finish a narrow second Our Ivanhowe in the Doomben Cup. Will get every chance to run the 2000m right out from the inside draw, and can’t be ignored in his current form.
3. THE UNITED STATES – K McEvoy (11)
Lining up for his third start in as many weeks, he was too good for them in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago as expected. Got back in the Cantala Stakes last weekend and missed getting a run at the top of the straight, forcing him to wait, ease of the heels of the eventual third place-getting Tivaci, and make his run late. Hit the line strongly and with a clearly run, would’ve placed and finished closer to the winner, in-form Le Romain. Should be right in the finish.
4. HAPPY CLAPPER – B Avdulla (13)
Heavily involved in the blanket finish of the Epsom Handicap where, beaten just over a half a length, he finished fourth. Lined up then as a 50/1 shot in the Cox Plate, running sixth (11.1 lengths) where he kept battling away in the straight to finish 3.5 – 4 lengths behind Hartnell and Yankee Rose. Rounded out last campaign with a third placing in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) and better suited to a firmer surface at Flemington. Will be giving most a decent start though from his wide draw.
5. VADAMOS – D Oliver (7)
Good Australian debut for this European galloper when fourth in the Cox Plate. The 6yo stallion sat on a genuine place and only missed out on filling a spot by tiring the inside of the 75m where Hartnell and Yankee Rose got the better of him. Improves with that run under his belt and although he has missed a place his last three attempts at this trip, they’ve each been in quality races and he’s right in this.
6. AWESOME ROCK – S Baster (9)
Finished fifth in both the G1 Underwood Stakes and Toorak Handicap, not far of the winner in each event, before producing a solid effort in the Cox Plate and crossing the line in fifth spot. Crossed the line first in the autumn’s Australian Cup this track and distance but had the race taken away from him on protest with Preferment promoted to winner. Going well, and can run a cheeky races at this level but happy to suggest he’ll find at least a few too good for him here.
7. SCOTTISH – W Buick (6)
European visitor who lost no admirers with his second placing in the Caulfield Cup behind Jameka after having to do a bit of work in the early stages to find the front. His Trainer Charlie Appleby is enjoying his time in Australia, winning the Lexus Stakes with Oceanographer, and also the Geelong Cup with Qewy – who finished fourth in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Has a great record over this trip – will be able to set or camp on the speed – and give his challengers plenty to run down.
8. ENDLESS DRAMA – C Williams (4)
Lightly raced European galloper stepping out for the first time for Trainer Chris Waller. Hasn’t races since finishing fifth of seven in the G3 Royal Whip Stakes (2012m) but his seven career starts prior to that, have been very good and include a G1 placing in the Thousand Guineas behind Gleneagles. Bolted in at a recent barrier trial at Cranbourne, winning by 8 when ridden by Craig Williams and he has obviously pleased both Jock and Trainer to be kicking off in a quality event. Best to treat him with caution and respect any moves in betting.
9. PALENTINO – M Zahra (5)
Winner of three of his five starts at Flemington but last week’s outing in the Cantala Stakes wasn’t one of them. He finished eleventh (4.4 lengths) behind Le Romain after settling in a nice spot just behind the leader in transit. The run come for him just inside of the 400m but he was able to accelerate and only battled away for the remainder of the race. That was his first run for a month – it was a hot field and he can only be better for it. Has the record to be given some hope, but doubt he’ll find this any easier.
10. VANBRUGH – B Melham (10)
Sharp improvement as expected by this 4yo stepping up from the mile to 2000m last start, where he finished well and took out the G3 Goongy Cup. Ran fourth last season in the G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and this seems to be the trip where he has produced his best results. Will want a solid tempo on to be allowed his opportunity to run home, but will have to give a start, and run past, some very smart and proven WFA performers here.
11. TIVACI – P Moloney (12)
Finished close up sixth in the G1 Rupert Clarke and then placed (beaten less a length) in the G1 Toorak Handicap behind He’s Our Rokkii, so a bit surprised to see him start 40/1 in last weekend’s Cantala Stakes. He kept The United Stated in a pocket at the top of the straight and then ran home well to narrowly keep the same horse out of third place. Keeps stepping up to the challengers set before him this campaign, and WFA is another one however, on the quick back-up, from a wide gate, would be happy to see how he measures up this week.
12. GOOD STANDING – C Schofield (3)
Led, controlled the race, and proved too good for Rockette and Inference – who was desperately unlucky in the G1 VRC Derby last Saturday, at his most recent start in the G3 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m). Trainer James Cummings opted to by-pass the Derby and come here – which should be good lead that the horse has trained on well. Gets in with a feather-weight and good draw – no surprise to see him kept safe in markets.
13. SEABURGE – D Yendall (2)
Looked all over the winner in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and was only nosed out late by a perfect ride by Dwayne Dunn aboard Divine Prophet. Lined up in last week’s Cantala Stakes where, from the same gate as he has drawn Saturday, found a lovely spot in running. Went for a run inside of Mackintosh at the top of the straight and came off second best. Took him a whilst to re-balance after that and he finished eighth (2.9 lengths) behind Le Romain. Gets a similar run here but stepping up to 2000m for the first time, along with this being his WFA, enough question marks there to leave him out this time.
RACE SUMMARY –
Late on the fourth day of the Carnival, it’ll be interesting to see how the track is playing. If there’s a bias to those up front – more than happy to stick with Scottish. Took a very good mare with sensation form to better him in the Caulfield Cup and the three weeks between runs for the return to 2000m is ideal. If those running home getting an advantage, The United States is surely hard to beat. Would normally steer clear of horses lining up for three runs in as many weeks, but thought with a touch of luck at the top of the straight last weekend, he may have given it a nudge. The 2000m suits and there’s no better jockey at the moment than K McEvoy. Endless Drama the big query – solid overseas form, right stable, good draw and jockey. Probably best to take the insurance option and have something small on it at the double-figures. Place chances to Good Standing and Vadamos.