Chris Waller spent a long time deliberating on the best race for Espiona this weekend before making the call to bring her back to Sydney for a clash with Everest winner Think About It in the Canterbury Stakes.
While Waller expects the Joe Pride-trained sprinter to extend his unbeaten record at Randwick, he says the smaller seven-horse field gives his mare a chance to at least notch another Group 1 placing.
He felt that would have been a tougher ask in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), which attracted a deep field of 14, led by star sprinting mare Imperatriz.
“It was a tough decision,” Waller said.
“I think she could win the Newmarket and I also think she could run eighth – there are eight good chances and it’s a genuine handicap.
“If she runs up to her best form, I think she is a top-two chance in Sydney.
“Can we beat the favourite? Probably not. Can we beat the favourite in Melbourne? Probably not.
“But I think barrier two, a little bit more of a straightforward run, whereas barrier eight in a big field, you’d need a bit more luck.”
Espiona had remained in Melbourne since her eye-catching third behind Imperatriz and Private Eye in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) last month and travelled to Sydney overnight on Wednesday.
While there was a theory earlier in her career that she performed better in Melbourne, Espiona has put that to bed, her seven starts at Randwick yielding two wins and as many placings, including a victory in The Invitation (1400m) last spring and a seventh to Think About It in The Everest when she had little luck in the straight.
However, Waller isn’t anticipating she will turn the tables on that gelding in Saturday’s Canterbury Stakes (1300m).
“We can only beat Think About It if he’s not at his best or misses luck in running, which can happen,” Waller said.
“Joe (Pride) is astute, he will have him ready. I’m not second guessing that or hoping he doesn’t run up to his best. He is the horse to beat, but there is another Group One placing on the line.
“She didn’t get much luck in the Everest and she’s a good horse. She will get her chance on Saturday.”
Think About It dominates Canterbury Stakes markets as a $1.90 favourite with Espiona on the second line of betting at $3.80 with popular betting apps.