Flemington will host Saturday’s feature Victorian meeting and it is jam packed with quality despite the spotlight being on South Australia and Queensland with group 1’s being run in both of those states. There looks to be good value throughout the card and the Spotless Plate looks to be the highlight with Black Caviar’s relation Belle Couture running.
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Race One (12:35) : Taj Rossi Series Heat 1100m
Back Me: Picking Time was heavily backed on debut in what was a decent two year old race at Morphettville. She hit the line strongly on that occasion and she will improve from the run and this looks to be a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Where It Began is a well bred filly trained by Peter Moody, she is yet to trial or race but based on breeding and the strong stable you have to keep her safe in this race.
Roughie: Red Casino has had four career starts in which he has won once and placed once. He was strong in defeat at Warrnambool last start which is usually a decent form race for 2yo despite being run midweek at a country meeting. Currently at big odds and i think he must be included at the price.
Race Two (13:10) : Reduce Reuse Recycle Hcp (84) 2000m
Back Me: Baluch has been disappointing of late but i am happy to give her one last chance on Saturday where she steps up to the right distance and she is in a winnable class of race against her own sex. She gets into the weights well and there should be ample speed for her to settle back from the wide barrier and will be able to utilise the long straight at Flemington to run over the top of them.
Big Danger: Miss Outshine was a moral beaten horse last start where she found a ton of trouble in the straight and would have won the race with an ounce of luck. Because of that she must be included here and she will be very hard to beat with any luck this time out.
Roughie: Azzaden won well on debut and hasn’t been too bad at her last two starts against good opposition. She is lightly raced so she will improve from those runs and she faces a field that doesn’t boast the best winning strike rates and i think she is a big chance at double figure odds in this company.
Race Three (13:45) : Spotless Plate (78) 1200m
Back Me: Belle Couture was super impressive last start at Caulfield after disappointing on debut. She looks to be a filly who will continue to get better and better with each runner and i think with the improvement from her last start she will be winning again against a quality field.
Big Danger: Nicamorae has won both her starts this preparation and both in very impressive style. She jumped out of the ground last start over the 1000m and looked as if the step up in distance will suit her. She looks the biggest danger to our on top selection and they look like the will be fighting out the finish on last start performances.
Roughie: Good Music has a very good record and she has been solid at every one of her four career starts so i was surprised at the odds she opened at. She will be dropping in distance which isn’t ideal but she will certainly be rock hard fit and will get a good run from the barrier.
Race Four (14:22) : Cleanevent Hcp 1800m
Back Me: Backstedt over raced last start and was entitled to full away late. He finds another winnable race here and if he can settle this time which i think he will i think he will have the class advantage over the rest of the field and be too good.
Big Danger: Garud is on his ninth life with me. He continues to disappoint despite knowing he has a ton of ability. This is an easier race for him and i think he could bounce back on Saturday.
Roughie: Voila Ici isn’t the horse that he use to be but at the odds and looking at his first up record he should be included. He faces an easier task here and could bounce back to winning form.
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Race Five (14:57) : Secondbite Fresh Food Rescue 1400m
Back Me: By The Grace has had excuses for his two defeats this preparation and he looks very well placed on Saturday where he has drawn a good barrier and drops in weight. He was very good last preparation in decent races and at the weights i think he can win this race on Saturday.
Big Danger: Written Up has been very good this preparation and hasn’t done anything to suggest he shouldn’t be included again on Saturday. His win at Warrnambool was very good and that was on the back of a good win in the Bendigo Guineas which is good form for a race like this. If he can carry the big weight he will be in the finish.
Roughie: Ilgattino i don’t think handled the heavy going at Warrnambool and back on what is likely to be a firmer surface i am happy to have him in my selections. His previous two runs before the Bool would see him go close in this race and at the odds he must be included.
Race Six (15:32) : All Victorian Sprint Series Ht 1100m
Back Me: Lonhspresso is by far the class runner in this race and he first up record is very good despite not having a win. She has black type form all around her and against this class she should be far too good but will need a little luck with her running pattern of going back.
Big Danger: Danger Close has won his last three races all of which in good style. Any horse who has won three on the trop has to be included and he can definitely win again if our on top selection finds trouble in the run.
Roughie: Rich Jack went to the front at Sandown last start and had a lot of pressure put on him so he was entitled to weaken in the final stages and was very gallant only being beaten a length. He will likely go forward again and the main dangers are likely to come from the back so he may be able to steal the race if the rest are caught napping.
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Race Seven (16:10) : Momentum Energy Smilepower Hcp 2800m
Back Me: Unchain My Heart finished off very well last start at Flemington with the winner Gotta Take Care. The start before that he hit the line well over an unsuitable distance in a decent form race. That looks to be a good guide looking at this field and i think he will go one better this time out.
Big Danger: Shoreham at his best would be winning this but he has been a bit below par this preparation. Back on a likely improving surface i am happy to include him in what looks to be a very winnable race for him on Saturday.
Roughie: Jelly Baby continues to lose the race after jumping missing the jump at her last two starts. If she can get away with the field on Saturday i think she is weighted well and has enough ability to finish in the mix and at the huge odds she is one to add to multiples for some value.
Race Eight (16:45) : Flemington Green Fields Hcp-96 1400m
Back Me: Henwood got a long way back at Sandown last start and hit the line well late. He will improve with the slight increase in distance as well as back at Flemington where he appreciates the long straight to wind up. There looks to be ample speed in the race to set it up for him and he looks hard to beat in this race at good each way odds.
Big Danger: Tried And Tired has won his last two starts and the form from those two races has stacked up since so he looks a big chance to make it a hat trick of wins on Saturday. He goes up slightly in weight and has drawn a widish barrier which looks to be the only negatives against his name.
Roughie: Lord Durante looks to be massive value in this race. Something went wrong last start so i am happy to put a line through that run and if you do he probably more than halves his odds in this race. He always puts in a solid run and i think that will continue on Saturday where he looks to be the best value runner in the race and has to be included.
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Best Bet: Race Six Number 4 Lonhspresso
Next Best: Race Seven Number 7 Unchain My Heart
Best Roughie: Race Two Number 7 Baluch