Geelong will host a strong eight race card this Wednesday, with our best bet coming in race four in the shape of Happy Highway for Dean Yendall and Darren Weir.
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Race One: GRC Function/Event Centre Maiden 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Ordinary race to kick off the day. The horse who has the best formlines in the race is Great Delight, so she goes on top. Had three runs during the Winter. First up, she ran behind a Group 1 placegetter in May’s Dream at Swan Hill, then ran behind A Saucy Snitzel at her next two runs on the Geelong Synthetic. Looks the one on form.
Big Danger: Princess Of Faith showed really good speed in her lone run back in June on the Geelong Synthetic, copping severe pressure in front and finding plenty until she got tired over the final 200m and then got hampered 100m from home. She should ping over from the wide barrier here and take some beating.
Roughie: Muscat is the query runner. Had three runs during the Winter, all of which were on bog tracks. Gets a firmer surface here first up and with natural improvement, he could surprise.
$250 Great Delight Free Bet
Race Two: Urban Stalker Maiden Plate 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Been a little while since we’ve seen a Lloyd Williams runner on the race track, so I’m tipping Barlow to be tuned right up for a forward first up performance. Ran some really good races during his first prep, which culminated with a four at Sandown behind former stablemate Seen, who has since gone on to win a couple of races in Queensland impressively. I like the fact he is first up at 1400m, backing up my theory that he is wound up.
Big Danger: Arctic Song finished fourth in a strong maiden race at Kilmore, then sat outside the pace and looked the winner down the straight only to be gunned down late. He has the race fitness on his side and it will be an advantage to be near the speed here.
Roughie: Kaliq ran over the 1212m here on debut and was very ordinary out of the gates, settling near last. He was picking up ground and was going to be in the finish but got held up behind a wall of horses. He was the real eye catcher, and stepping up to 1400m looks ideal.
$250 Barlow Free Bet
Race Three: Connect Tel Maiden Plate 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Cumani for me. I thought he was okay against the bias first up at the Valley behind Rebuild, then he went to Cranbourne and was most unlucky in the straight as Yendall was probing for a run near the fence but couldn’t get it until the race was all over. He has had a few chances to breakthrough now, but looks well placed here third up.
Big Danger: If Malabar Man is anywhere near fit, he’d beat these with a blindfold on. Looked the winner of the Geelong Classic in 2012, but was overhauled late by Solemn, then was near the back of the pack and couldn’t get into the race, like a majority of the backmarkers, when unplaced in the Derby behind Fiveandahalfstar. Wouldn’t put it beyond Mick Kent to get this bloke up to win here. Betting will be the guide.
Roughie: Port Hercule looked quite big and burly in the yard first up at Seymour, but gee he raced well, looming to win on the turn, but the fitness gave way late. Should be much fitter now, drawn well and is a definite chance.
$250 Cumani Free Bet
Race Four: Jim’s Mowing Handicap (64) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card for me in Happy Highway (Best Odds: $2.30). Stormed home from well back to run third at Swan Hill first up, then was luckless at the Valley behind Tronador, who has won again since. She couldn’t get a clear crack at them in the straight, and went to the line pretty much untested. Drawn to be in the clear now, up to 1700m and Yendall takes over, and he has been aboard in her two career wins.
Big Danger: The lack of any gate speed here gives Ruby Road (Best Odds: $16.00) a chance here. Yendall was aboard a fortnight back at the Bool where he let the mare roll along in front, kept it at a strong tempo, booted on the turn and never looked like getting beat. That might be her go, and she now has the services of Damian Lane, who is in career best form.
Roughie: Madam Archer (Best Odds: $21.00) was well tried at Benalla last time out, and after missing the kick, she just couldn’t get into the race as a winning prospect, but she did make up some ground late. She draws to get a soft trip on the fence, and with the pace expected not to be too hot, that gives her a chance.
$250 Happy Highway Free Bet
Race Five: Geelong Milk Pura Handicap (64) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Good three year old race to kick off the quaddie. Going for Stone In His Shoe (Best Odds: $11.00). Attacked the line quite strongly to win on debut at Bairnsdale back in August, then resumed at Flemington a couple of weeks back, and sat back in a race dominated by the leader, Gracious Prospect, a Stakes class performer. He did make up ground late, so a more genuine tempo and up in distance will suit.
Big Danger: Whistle Stop (Best Odds: $10.00) teased punters for a little while, but broke his maiden status well enough last time out at Bendigo, leading all the way after being well supported in betting. Should lead here comfortably and take some beating if he can pinch a cheap furlong.
Roughie: Her Notebook (Best Odds: $9.00) has had two runs back from a spell and has been solid in each. First up she ran second to Petrova at Traralgon, then ran third at Sale to Nesbo, who is city placed. The key to her will be to ride her a bit more quiet, because she was used up at Sale and didn’t find much in the straight when asked.
$250 Stone In His Shoe Free Bet
Race Six: APCO Service Stations Handicap (70) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The snip snip job Mandla (Best Odds: $2.25) received last year has really done the trick with this horse. Early on his career, he loomed to win but had his mind on other things and threw races away. He resumed from a break in May and blitzed them at Seymour, beating home subsequent city winner Pillar Of Creation, then had another break and resumed a couple of weeks ago at the same track and did much the same, winning most impressively. Expecting him to be short, but he should win.
Big Danger: Glow Torch (Best Odds: $17.00) ran second to Mandla in that Seymour race two weeks back, and was quite good there. He then went to Cranbourne and had little luck behind Rayhan, getting held up near the fence for most of the straight before eventually getting clear late. With normal luck, he can figure here.
Roughie: With the claim, Union Gap (Best Odds: $9.00) is definitely the best placed horse based on weights. Has been freshened up since her close up fifth at Bendigo behind Laohu, who went on to win last Saturday at Caulfield. Drawn the pain for an in form rider, hard to beat.
$250 Mandla Free Bet
Race Seven: The Sporting Globe Handicap (64) 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Interesting to note that Team Cummings has sent the promising stayer Prospector (Best Odds: $5.00) south. His last two starts at Newcastle have been excellent, with the latter of those resulting in a win over the 2300m, aided by a gem ride from Hannah Martin. Comes to Victoria now, and does strike a handy race, but Rawiller takes the ride now, and he does appear to have plenty of upside.
Big Danger: Duplicity Jones looked the winner last start at the Valley, but he just couldn’t get past Settler’s Way in a thrilling finish. That is the concern stepping up to 2400m, but I’ll bank on the theory that he was only third up there, so maybe there is improvement.
Roughie: Shattered Dreams (Best Odds: $10.00) bolted in his maiden in a very weak race at Pakenham, then was held up and unlucky not to finish close when fifth over this track/distance before running a game third at Bendigo over this distance. He is doing all of this in his first prep, and he has been up since early September, so that’s the concern, but he seemingly is enjoying his racing.
$250 Prospector Free Bet
Race Eight: Sportingbet Handicap (64) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Waving (Best Odds: $9.00) for me to finish off the day on the right note. Hasn’t been seen since April where he finished last over the 1900m on the Geelong Synthetic. He was later found to have pulled up sore, so forgive and forget. Prior to that he was a most impressive winner over 1600m at Werribee. He is sure to be wound up for a first up performance.
Big Danger: Had she not drawn wider, I would have put Berrichon (Best Odds: $9.00) on top. I still think she will be really competitive here, because she did a stack of work early on last start at Bendigo, but still found plenty in the straight to win. That was only her second run back from a break, so expect improvement from this filly from Darley.
Roughie: Chappell (Best Odds: $26.00) has good overall records at this track, distance, ground, and second up. Didn’t mind his first up run here and any rain will boost his chances.
$250 Waving Free Bet
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Best Bet: Happy Highway
Next Best: Mandla
Best Roughie: Prospector
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, 10
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16
$50 Investment = 13.88% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.