Feature racing in Sydney on Saturday will be at Rosehill racecourse for what looks to be a decent eight race card featured by Lord Mayors Cup. Throughout the days racing there looks to be a ton of value for punters and we should be able to steer you into some of it.
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Race One (12:20) : Sportingbet Juvenile Stayer 1800m
Back Me: Charming Lad has shown me enough in his two career starts to have him on top in this race which doesn’t look to have much depth to it. He should appreciate the step up in distance and he should be right in the finish and with the two favourites short in betting he is at a good each way price.
Big Danger: Standoubt is coming out of the Fernhill Quality where he met a much tougher field so the step back in class here will certainly see him be very competitive. Under the odds for mine which is why he isn’t on top but he does look the main danger in the race.
Roughie: There doesn’t look to be a runner at value who can figure in the finish but the best of a bad lot would be Steel Wool (Best Odds: $1.00) who ran on okay at his last outing so the increase in distance will suit.
Race Two (12:55) : Power Access (bm95) 1350m
Back Me: Frozen Rope has had two starts over the distance for two wins. Last start i thought he was very good when hitting the line well behind a good galloper in the way of Junoob. Put a line through his ran at Randwick as it was run to suit the leaders and at the big odds i am happy to have him on top as a very good each way bet.
Big Danger: Said Com has been out of the winners stall for a long time but he finds a very winnable race on Saturday and he is weighted well in this class. Blake Shinn takes the ride and he has been in great form of late and from barrier 5 he will have every chance, he looks the biggest danger in the race.
Roughie: Tromso will carry the top weight but probably deservingly so as he has raced competitively in good races. He will get a good run from the inside barrier and he races well fresh which he is on Saturday and i expect him to run a big race at double figure odds.
Race Three (13:30) : Rexel (bm75) 1900m
Back Me: Pinstripe Lane was scratched on the weekend in Melbourne to make the journey north. I had him on top in the race he came out of which was probably a similar class race to this one. He should get a good run from the barrier and with just 54kg on his back i think he will go very close at big odds.
Big Danger: Surge Ahead drops way back in class on Saturday and against this field he must be respected despite his form showing he was well beaten in those races. Showed a lot of promise early in his career and the stable will be hoping for a win to turn around his form.
Roughie: Any Peter Moody trained galloper going around at big odds in a Benchmark 75 against a weak field i will be including in my tips and Stellarized is no exception. He was luckless at Wangaratta last start and the drop back in distance will suit him. He will be fit and ready to go and this race doesn’t look a tough race to win.
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Race Four (14:05) : Ken Callander Fellowship-bm80 1200m
Back Me: Havana is coming out of some very good form races and he meets a much easier field of runners on Saturday and drops in weights from those races. He has drawn an awkward barrier but his style of racing of going back will prevent this being an issue. There looks to be decent speed in the race and he looks very hard to beat in this class.
Big Danger: Papillon Rouge has a good placing strike race having run in the top three on five of her seven starts and i think that will continue on Saturday. Happy to put a line through her last start in the South Pacific Classic due to the slow track condition and being back on a firmer surface should see her improve and she looks the biggest danger in the race.
Roughie: Kraftwerk went close in a good form race at Flemington last start which was run in a decent time. He steps up in distance on Saturday which i think will suit and from barrier 4 he will get the run of the race just behind the speed and will be right in the finish at a good price.
Race Five (14:40) : Wilson Asset Management (bm79) 1100m
Back Me: Single Melody i don’t think handled the heavy going last time out with the heavy weight so i am happy to overlook that run. Before that she put in two very good runs includeding one at Canterbury which really caught my eye. She will be very hard to beat if she can put in a run like that on Saturday and at the odds she looks very good each way value.
Big Danger: Kristy Lee put in some very good runs at the end of her last preparation but a bit of bad luck and some behavioural issues she displayed cost her a few wins. She goes well fresh over the sprint distance and from barrier 3 she will get a good run in transit and will be hitting the line hard late.
Roughie: Walk With Attitude has shown plenty of ability in some of her races but she is relatively inconsistent when it comes to form. If she can race close to her best she will be super competitive against a field like this but there is a gamble whether she will be near her best or not but i will be adding her into my selections just incase she is.
Race Six (15:15) : Fujitsu Air Lord Mayors Cup 2000m
Back Me: Sacred Flyer was very good last start at Warwick Farm where he should have finished closer to the winner. He was first up in that start and he will improve from the run and with the extra distance. He has had three starts over the track and distance from three wins and five starts for three wins and two placing over the distance. Currently at double figure odds and i think he will be well supported so punter should get on early.
Big Danger: I am sticking with the Warwick Farm form which Secessio as well as our on top selection came through. He did a bit wrong in the race and probably should have finished closer at the finish, he drops 4kg from that run and draws well in barrier 3 so he should get every chance on Saturday at good odds.
Roughie: I can’t believe im doing it but i will be including Maluckyday here, his run two starts ago in the Neville Sellwood was very good but disappointed punters once again in the JRA Plate. This looks an easier race and he is weighted well and will be running on into a placing.
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Race Seven (15:50) : Candana Bathrooms (bm85) 1200m
Back Me: King Cobia races well fresh having won two of his three tries first up. Last preparation he ran Terravista to within a length which would certainly be good enough to win this race and at the double figure quote he currently is he can be backed each way with confidence.
Big Danger: You’ll Never attacked the line really well last start where he was first up. He has a good record at the distance having run two seconds from two starts and from the inside barrier he will get a good run throughout the race and will be running on well late, he will be hard to hold out.
Roughie: Reunite hasn’t won first up before but has placed on one occasion and the other run was on the heavy so i am happy to put a line through that. He was very good last preparation despite having only won the one race, he went close on numerous occasions and you know he will put in his best efforts on race day which i think will see him go close in this field.
Race Eight (16:30) : Blackwoods New Catalogue-bm75 1500m
Back Me: The Alfonso ran tenth in his first up run this preparation but he wasn’t beaten far on the line and will drop 3kg from that run. He will strip fitter from that run and the step up in distance will definitely increase his chances. He will jump from the inside barrier and go back giving him a good run throughout and with a bit of luck in the straight i expect him to be right in the finish.
Big Danger: Paederos was very good at Canterbury last start where he went forward and stuck on well in a race which he would have had excuses if he tired late. If he can get a soft run in front he will stick on very well late and will take a ton of running down.
Roughie: Dream Folk has a much better win percentage then many of the other runners in this race so the big odds is a bit of a surprise. He had excuses first up when a bad jump cost him a fair race so i will put a line through that run and last start he hit interference in the run so again had excuses. He will go back from the wide gate and if there is good speed he will be running on well late at very good odds.
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Best Bet: Race Five Number 11 Single Melody
Next Best: Race Four Number 4 Havana
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 7 Sacred Flyer
In the news:
A restricted-class Sydney race will masquerade as a virtual Queensland Derby trial at Rosehill on Saturday.
Eleven of the 14 three-year-olds down to run in the Rexel Handicap are nominated for the $500,000 Derby at Eagle Farm on June 7.
And for the early favourite Surge Ahead, the 1900-metre race represents his only chance to head north after a wet track forced his scratching from last week’s South Australian Derby.
“It looks like he will get a decent track on Saturday and if he runs up to expectations he’ll go to Brisbane for the Derby,” trainer Anthony Cummings said.
“This is the lead-up run for him. If he needs another run there are options but he’s a fairly lightly framed horse so I would doubt it.”
Surge Ahead ran in the ATC Australian Derby last month but was beaten almost 50 lengths, confirming once and for all he was a duffer in rain-affected going.
“He’s had two goes on wet tracks and hasn’t been any good on them,” Cummings said.
Surge Ahead ($4.60) holds a slight call on favouritism over fellow Queensland Derby entries Darci Magic and ($5) and Marmelo ($5.50).
Darci Magic returns to Sydney racing after finishing just behind the placings in the Gunsynd Classic at Eagle Farm last month.
The Chris Waller-trained filly Marmelo is the most prominent of Saturday’s runners in Derby betting as a $21 chance with Surge Ahead and Takewing at $31.