Ciaron Maher’s trio of ATC Australian Derby runners will head to the three-year-old classic on relatively fresh legs, but the leading trainer isn’t sure if that will be an advantage.
Maher will saddle up favourite Hitotsu, along with progressive duo Can’t Go Wong and Elzamee, the latter pair having done their lead-up racing on good surfaces in Melbourne, while Hitotsu will be second-up after claiming the Australian Guineas on a soft 6.
In contrast, the locals have been slogging through the wet conditions that have plagued Sydney this autumn, including the six horses backing up from the Tulloch Stakes (1850m) at Newcastle on Monday.
While a five-day turnaround would usually be a tough ask for those runners, Maher is wary of the fitness edge it will provide in what are unique circumstances.
“As we’ve seen, a lot of horses on the back-up have the advantage because these aren’t conditions you strike very often and it’s all stamina,” Maher said.
“It’s a bit like American racing actually, so the horses on the back-up, a lot of times have that match-hardened fitness that you need in these conditions.”
Despite his caution, Maher is confident his three runners are worthy contenders in the blue riband.
Victoria Derby winner Hitotsu is the class runner and coming off a gutsy performance in the Australian Guineas when he fought on doggedly to win.
The colt is bidding to become the first horse since the famously versatile Mahogany almost 30 years ago to capture the elite Derby double, but the heavy conditions are the query.
“He is an unknown in the wet, but his fitness is very good and he’s a proper, good horse,” Maher said.
“Hopefully he does handle it.”
Explosive Jack won the Derby for the trainer 12 months ago but Maher says Hitotsu is a different style of horse to his stablemate.
“Jack was bigger, stronger, more furnished, whereas Hitotsu has made really good improvement from the spring,” Maher said.
“He is a more athletic type, more scopey, where Jack was a very strong horse.”
Can’t Go Wong and Elzamee both made ground from back in the field to finish second and fourth respectively in the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley in their final Derby lead-up.
Maher says both horses have done well and will be competitive if they handle the ground.