Year after year, the royal blue colours of Godolphin have been a regular fixture of the Melbourne Spring Carnival as the world-wide breeding operation spared no expense in trying to win one of the world’s greatest thoroughbred races that has always remained frustratingly, just out of their reach.
They’ve filled places in the cup with the likes of Central Park, Mahler and Crime Scene but in 2016, they may just finally get their hands on the Melbourne Cup.
Godolphin has five runners in this year’s Cup including Hartnell and Oceanographer who sit first and secondly respectively, in current betting markets.
Out to win his fourth Melbourne Cup is Melbourne owner Lloyd Williams who will have an interest in four runners.
Just A Dash, Efficient and Green Moon have been successful for Williams in the past and most of his horses are specifically set for the Melbourne Cup, year round.
Bondi Beach and Almandin are his best hopes according to the market, with Bondi Beach have been aimed at this race since unsuccessfully competing in last year’s edition.
He’ll be spot on for his return despite not having competed for 48 days with all his racing this year, having been planned around his return attempt.
International visitors include Big Orange – who carries top weight of 57kgs – the only horse to carry more than 56.5kgs to victory in the past thirty-three years, has been Makybe Diva – when she won her third consecutive Melbourne Cup carrying 58kgs.
Big Orange has solid form behind him though, a good draw and jockey aboard – he’ll get his chance.
Hartnell failed in last year’s Cup, and in the Sydney Cup when a short-priced favourite, but twelve months on, he appears a much more mature animal.
Odds: View the 2016 Melbourne Cup Odds
1. BIG ORANGE – J Spencer (7) 57kgs
UK galloper who belied his starting price of $61 in last year’s Melbourne Cup, by finishing fifth (2.5 lengths) behind Prince Of Penzance – when jumping from gate 23! The 6yo isn’t anywhere near that price this year ($16) given that his form over the past twelve months has been faultless. He has won the Princess Of Wales (2414m) and Goodwood Cup (3219m) each by good margins under 58 and 61kgs respectively, and for good measure, produced a neck second in the Dubai World Cup (3200m) in March. He hasn’t raced since the end of July, but he is an experienced international campaigner with arguably the strongest record at 3200m of any runner in this year’s race. Drawn well and no reason why he shouldn’t give a good account of himself.
2. OUR IVANHOWE – D Dunn (6) 57kgs
Finished 3rd in last year’s Caulfield Cup before, as $21 chance, having little luck along the fence in the run home in the Melbourne Cup, where he finished tenth (4 lengths). Contested the Caulfield Cup this year as well, and was steady at best in the run home when finishing sixth (5.4 lengths) behind Jameka. The 7yo trained by Cup winning trainers Lee and Anthony Freedman, has proven hard to catch for most punters since arriving from Europe two years ago and although competitive at the top level, his only win from twelve starts on Australian soil, has been in the Doomben Cup (2000m) when quoted a 16/1 chance. Has been assigned the same weight as last year’s Melbourne Cup, but not so sure he is going as well this time around.
3. CURREN MIROTIC – T Berry (18) 56.5kgs
GIven the performances of previous Japanese visitors in the Melbourne Cup, it’s best to treat this 9yo with respect, despite his record showing that it’s one month shy of three years, since he last won a race. Since that time, he has continued to race at the highest level in Japan and although his form has been a bit inconsistent, at his best he has produced some very good results including a narrow second in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring (3200m) back in May, and in the previous year’s edition of the same race, finished third behind Gold Ship and Fame Game, the latter staring favourite in last year’s Cup. Tommy Berry rode this galloper as recently as June – when unplaced in a G1 over 2200m, and has stuck with him here, but the barrier and those inconsistencies in his form, have placed some question marks over him.
4. BONDI BEACH – Ryan Moore (5) 56kgs
The Aidan O’Brien trained galloper has been aimed at a return to Melbourne since finishing sixteenth in last year’s edition as a $21 chance. He’s only had the four runs since, winning the first two earlier in the year, and finishing 3rd in each of his two most recent outings in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes (2414m) and G3 Enterprise Stakes (2414m) in fields of only and six five runners respectively. Whilst the form may no look as solid as others, he has lugged 62.5kgs in each of his past two runs and drops to a luxury 56kgs here (he carried 52.5kgs last year). He has drawn barrier 5 (which two of the past four winners of the Cup have started from), and with the entire past twelve months geared at this race, rest assured he’ll be at the very top of his game, hence this year’s price of $10.00.
5. EXOSPHERIC – Damien Oliver (13) 56kgs
European galloper who joined the Anthony and Lee Freedman stable in September, with his first local resulting in a very encouraging third in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) three weeks ago. That was his first start for two months and you can only think that the lightly raced 5yo stallion will be fitter for the run – add to the mix that Damien Oliver (three time winner of the Melbourne Cup) is onboard, and there’s enough to build an each-way case for this galloper. Untried beyond 2414m, but going on the results his produced at that distance and his Caulfield Cup effort, would think chances are he’ll see it out. Represents good value for those looking to shop outside of the leading contenders.
6. HARTNELL – James McDonald (12) 56kgs
After a disappointing autumn, the Godolphin galloper returned to racing this spring and has taken – almost all – before him. Ridiculously easy wins in the Hill Stakes and then the Turnbull Stakes – where he defeated subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Jameka by three and a quarter lengths, saw him head to the Cox Plate as the only serious challenger for wonder mare Winx. Winx produced a freakish performance to win her second Cox Plate with Hartnell finishing second – seven lengths in arrears. There’s no harm running a seven length second to a horse like Winx, and the Cox Plate has produced recent winners Fiorente (2013), Green Moon (2012) and almost, So You Think in 2010, when eclipsed by Americain. By competing in the Cox Plate, Hartnell avoided any type of weight penalty and only has to carry 1.5kgs more than Jameka – he carried 3kgs more than her in his Turnbull victory. The two mile journey is the question. He finished fifteenth in last year’s Cup and as a $1.45 favourite, fourth in last year’s Sydney Cup seven months earlier at his only two attempts at the two miles in Australia – but as mentioned above, he’s appears to be a different beast this campaign right in mix.
7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN – Hugh Bowman (20)
Another agonising placing in a feature race for this 8yo a fortnight ago, when claimed late by stable-mate Grand Marshal in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). That was his fourth placing in eight starts since his last victory – the Zipping Classic (2500m) just shy of a year ago. He finished a magnificent third in the 2014 Melbourne Cup Protectionist and Red Cadeaux, and was relegated to eleventh in last year’s edition after suffering significant interference when challenging the leaders. He carries 55kgs in this year’s cup, 0.5kg more than last year but a nice drop on what the weights he’s been assigned over the past twelve months – the lowest being 57kgs. He has a good record the trip but would think he needs the sting out and a miracle run in transit from barrier 20, to win the Cup at his third crack at it.
8. WICKLOW BRAVE – Frankie Dettori (24) 56kgs
UK galloper trained by Willie Mullins, who prepared Max Dynamite for second placing in last year’s Cup, that brings good form to Australia. Three starts back he closed steadily to finish third behind Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup (3219m) and at his most recent outing, won the Irish St. Leger (2816m) defeating Order Of St George – who himself sat near the top of Melbourne Cup markets for a period of time in pre-post betting, by half a length. Third in the race was Trip To Paris – who finished fourth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. There’s plenty of good form lines to draw for Wicklow Brave but they may have all been brought undone at Saturday evening’s barrier draw where he drew the outside gate – 24. He’s priced immediately eased from $18 out to $21. Only one horse in the past fifteen years has won from a barrier wider than 14 (Shocking 2009).
9. ALMOONQITH – M Walker (19) 54.5kgs
Got right out to $51 in Melbourne Cup betting after plain performances in the G3 Naturalism Stakes and G3 Bart Cummings – behind Jameka and Almandin respectively, but tightened right up ($26) after a strong fourth placing in the Caulfield Cup Finished a well-beaten eighteenth in last year’s Melbourne Cup but either-side of that run, he won the Geelong (2400m) and Sandown Cups (3200m), both in strong fashion. Won’t have a problem with the distance, and the Caulfield Cup was as good as a trial connections could’ve hoped for heading into the cup but as the two wins above indicate, just wonder if he’s a couple of lengths of the top stayers. Hard to find those extra few lengths from barrier 19.
10. GALLANTE – B Shinn (2) 54.5kgs
The winner of this year’s Sydney Cup (3200m), the 6yo gelding has only had the two starts since in readiness for Tuesday’s Cup. The first was an excellent second to Jameka, whom he gave away three kilos to, in the G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) before a disappointing seventh in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) just over week ago. He was $3.80 shot in the MV Cup where he led the field and admittedly, he was only second up and didn’t get much peace in front, but he was under pressure 400m from home and beaten over a dozen lengths. Drawn perfectly in 2, winner over 3200m previously but would have to completely ignore last start to give him a hope and was beaten too far to do that for mine.
11. GRAND MARSHAL – Ben Melham (9)
Specked at longer odds last start in the Moonee Valley Cup ($31 into $19) where he enjoyed the solid tempo of the race to finish strongly from a mid-field position and defeat stable-mate Who Shot Thebarman. Had poor form leading into last year’s Melbourne Cup where he eventual finished 21st however, his first over the past twelve months has been rock solid – especially at or beyond 2400m aside from his last start victory, includes a third placing in The BMW and Sydney Cup. Well-weighted for mine then with only 1kg more than last year’s Cup and if there’s any rain about Tuesday – his chances increase and his current price of $26 will surely trim up. Think he’ll be a few tipsters “best long-shot” in the race.
12. JAMEKA – Nick Hall (3) 54.5kgs
Aiming to become the first horse to win the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double since Ethereal in 2001 and join the selected group that includes Might And Power, Let’s Elope, Galilee and Rising Fast who have won the Cups double in the same year. She hasn’t put a foot wrong this campaign – or in her career to date for that matter, having only twice in her nineteen starts, finish outside of the top four. Her dominant Caulfield Cup win earned her a 1.5kgs penalty, meaning she’ll carry 53.5kgs and 2.5kgs more than previous Cup winning mares Let’s Elope and Makybe Diva (in her first Cup victory of 2003), who were both assigned 51kgs, but she’s low-flying at the moment and could not be in better shape. Gets a lovely run from gate three from the jump and only needs a touch of luck rounding the turn/top of the straight, to challenge.
13. HEARTBREAK CITY – J Moreira (23) 54kgs
Another UK visitor that didn’t fair well at the barrier draw on Saturday evening, coming up with gate 23. He’s the winner of his past three starts – two of those victories over the jumps, but showed he was no slouch on the flat with his most recent outing resulting in strong 4 length win in the Ebor Handicap (2816m). Previous winners of the Ebor Handicap include Purple Moon (second in 2007 Melbourne Cup) and All The Good (winner of the 2008 Caulfield Cup), so it’s proven path. Despite the draw, his price ($14.00) has remained solid and that’s good indication of his chances.
14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD – B Spriggs (14) 54kgs
Going very well this time with his first up run seeing him run second to McCreery (a strong second in Cantala Stakes on Saturday), before winning the G1 Metropolitan Stakes in Sydney where both Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal – the subsequent quinella in the Moonee Valley Cup, finished well behind him. His only other start came in the Caulfield Cup where not much when right and he found plenty of traffic and restricted room early. Best to forgive him that run, where he finished tenth (7.5 lengths) behind Jameka. Going better than that run and whilst he may not be winning – he is capable of running a race much better than his current quote of $81 would suggest.
15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE – V Duric (21) 53.5kgs
The son of Monsun (sire of Cup winners Fiorente and Protectionist), has been game at his past two runs which have seen him run third to Almandin in the Bart Cummings and fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup. Strong effort in the Moonee Valley Cup when hitting joining the leaders at the 400m in a solidly run race and sticking on well. Ran a very good seventh (3.2 lengths) in last year’s Cup after winning the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day and does get down to 53kgs, a drop of 5kgs on his last start, but doubt that will be enough to overcome the wide draw and stronger field.
16. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE – D Lane (1) 52.5kgs
The 5yo mare has only had the one start since running last of five runners in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes (2000m) in July of this year, and that saw her finish third in the Nayef Stakes over 2414m. That run was in September, so it’s been six weeks since and she’s arrived where a few of her stable-mates have exceptional form. Drawn well in gate one but just haven’t seen enough from her to suggest she could be winning the Cup on Tuesday.
17. ALMANDIN – K McEvoy (17) 52.5kgs
Improved with each start this time in has the son of Monsun with his most recent outing seeing him record a win in the G3 Bart Cummings Stakes (2500m). He didn’t beat much in that race – second horse Zanteca’s best win was the Listed Port Adelaide Cup – but he did it in an easy manner that backed his two length win at his previous start in the Listed Harry White (2400m). Connections may have wanted an extra month or two with this galloper however, there’s no doubting he is going well and the services of Jockey Kerrin McEvoy – who is riding in fine form at present – is a huge bonus. Sure to find his way into a few trifecta and first fours.
18. ASSIGN – K Mallyon (22) 52kgs
Like stable-mate Almandin, seemingly improving with each run and comes of a victory in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m). Led his five competitors throughout last start and staved off the late challenge from Big Memory, who was looking for his first win in two years. Not the strongest form for a Melbourne Cup and the draw only appears to make his task harder.
19. GREY LION – G Boss (16) 52kgs
Well accounted for in good races in Europe before joining trainer Matt Cumani’s Ballarat Stable where he first local was in last fortnight’s Geelong Cup (2400m). He was a notable drifter in betting before the race ($3.90 out to $6.50), but belied that trend to run second to Qewy. That was his first run in two months so could only have taken benefit from that outing and the third placing from that race, Oceanography, won Saturday’s Lexus Stakes in fine style. Taking a line through that form, the $41 on offer would seem overs but there’s not much in his previous eleven runs to support the Geelong effort.
20. OCEANOGRAPHER – C Schofield (11)
Trainer Charlie Appleby is really enjoying his spring in Melbourne. He produced Scottish to run second in the Caulfield Cup, won the Geelong Cup with Qewy and on Saturday, took out the Lexus Stakes with Oceanographer – who had ran an eye-catching run in the Geelong Cup behind his stable-mate. Oceanographer’s above two efforts have seen him rocket up the Melbourne Cup betting, to sit on the second line behind Hartnell. It was a real strong stayer effort in the Lexus and there does seem to be a real sense of timing to this 5yo’s Cup bid, but just not sure I can come into him at the current quote of $5.50.
21. SECRET NUMBER – S Baster (10) 52kgs
Quite remarkable is the record of this 7yo gelding who has only had five well-spaced starts since October 2013 however, when he is produced, inevitably puts in a good performance. He finished second to Dandino in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes behind Dandino on the final day of last year’s Carnival and his only run since, was in September just gone where he took out the Listed Doonside Cup (2012m). Been her before and raced well – tougher this will be – but has drawn and lightly weighted.
22. PENTATHLON – Mark du Plessis (4) 51kgs
Plugged away when third (as a $61 chance) behind Gran Marshal in the Moonee Valley Cup two starts back, before again a dour effort late when seventh behind Oceanographer in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes. Between near on a dozen length on Saturday and find it impossible to see how he turns that kind margin around to be a legitimate chance here.
23. QEWY – C Williams (15) 51kgs
From the very much in-form visiting team of Charlie Appleby who was well supported in betting ($4.80 into $4.00) when leading throughout to win the Geelong Cup. Form from that race has been franked with third-placed Oceanographer winning Saturday’s Lexus Stakes. Has contested hurdle racing back in the UK over 4000+m, so no sweat about this 7yo seeing out the trip but, unlike the Geelong Cup, he won’t get his own way out in front this time and can’t see him holding off the challengers of some better performed gallopers late.
24. ROSE OF VIRGINIA – Ben E Thompson (8)
Only have to look at her quote of $301 to get a good idea of her chances – but, the connections can forever boast they had a Cup runner!
- BONDI BEACH
- HARTNELL
- BIG ORANGE
- JAMEKA
