While some of the nation’s best three-year-olds return this Saturday under clear skies at Rosehill in Sydney, the weight-for-age and potential staying stars begin locking horns at Caulfield in Melbourne ahead of the Spring riches!
It’s almost like lighting the fuse under a punting bonfire as strong black-type betting races take centre stage, and competitive finishes are almost guaranteed.
Certainly, in the features I’m pretty keen to bet around one or two favourites, while others still look a sound wager at the price. WA star and controversial Group 1 Railway winner Luckygray has his first start in the east in the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield, but he’s never seen a slow or heavy track, and around the $3.00 mark, must be some sort of risk. So too Satin Shoes at Rosehill. She’s terrific first-up, looked good i n a recent trial and has a soft draw, but I’m keen on one right alongside her.
Here’s a snap-shot of how I see the day playing out:
MY P.B. Lawrence Stakes Tip: READY TO RIP: Shooting for three straight wins, and while not well treated at the weights, again looks beautifully placed. Drawn to sit a little further off the speed over the longer trip, with cover, and mow them down in the straight.
Consider most of the weight-for-age class here is resuming and may take one run, while there must be a wet track query on Luckygray!
MY BEST BET: STOUT HEARTED (Rosehill R1): Punters can get it early here. A lightly raced improver, by the same sire as Americain, and bolted in last start at Canterbury. Only a slight class rise here, and the small field suits so don’t hold back!
MY BEST VALUE: MON SOLEIL (Rosehill R4): Has hit the line hard in his last two wi th little luck in similar class races. Drawn to get lovely run with cover back in the field, and only wants a fair crack at them on a uniform track to be in the finish at ridiculously big odds!
BEST LAY: SATIN SHOES (Rosehill R6): I concede she has terrific first-up form, drawn the inside, and will no doubt jump favourite. But up against some tough older sprinters, and I love See The World coming back from 1400m to 1100m off a five-week break!
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: SAMAREADY (Caulfield R4): Star three-year-old resuming, trained on the track, and could even win the Golden Rose. Punters have wasted no time, backing her from $2.40 into $2.25, and the money will keep coming!
Market Action:
In early Rosehill moves on Luxbet, resuming three-year-old Snitzerland has firmed from $3.10 into $2.90, including one bet of $1K, although there’s no doubt the boom All Too Hard will go into the Group 3 San Domenico Stakes as favourite. Also first-up, Driefontein remains seemingly big “paper” value at $6.00, although that price has hardly been attacked! Snitzerland is the one I like, but you will need the price against such a powerful and exciting favourite.
Satin Shoes has been well tried early ($3.00 into $2.90) to win the Listed Starlight Stakes, although watch for a continual shortening of Melbourne raider Eagle Falls. Sent to Sydney searching for firmer tracks, the seven-year-old is already $14.00 into $13.00, and will start shorter.
And early punters have gone wide with real intention in the last race, Al’s Magic Miss firming from $12.00 into $11.00, including one bet of $1K, while La Douce is $13.00 into $11.00, also with a stand-out wager of $1K at $12.00!
At Caulfield on Luxbet, Total Attraction has been very well supported in Race 2, tightening from $3.50 into $3.30, while in the third race, Free Of Do ubt has attracted a rush of bets and is $9.50 into $8.00!
But the best-backed runner is the returning Blue Diamond winner Samaready in the Listed Quezette Stakes (1200m). She has a stranglehold on the early money, with scores of bets including $1K @ $2.30, $1K twice at $2.25, $600.00 at $2.40 and $500.00 at $2.30! Samaready is $2.40 into $2.25!
The very classy Moment of Change has been well tried at $2.10 to win the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (120m) but there must still be a doubt on whether the four-year-old runs on an expected heavy track. And in the feature, the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m), one of my favourites Ready To Rip is again fancied to make it three straight despite the jump in class. He’s been well tried from $5.00 into $4.80!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLERS:
R6: No. 4 SEE THE WORLD: Tough fit sprinter who is suited coming back from 1400m to 1100m Listed class off a five-week break. Can st alk the speed from an inside gate, and be produced over the final furlong. Over the odds, despite the classy opposition!
R8: No 4. URGENT BELLS: Has come back well, and had no luck last start at Canterbury when slow out and then held up badly in the straight. Middle gate suits beautifully over this trip late in the day, and senior rider Hugh Bowman goes on. Sensational value in open market!
Place a Fixed Odds or LuxDiv WIN bet on Race 3 at Rosehill and if your selection comes second and the SP favourite wins, Luxbet will give you a Bonus Bet equal to your stake, up to $100.
NEIL’S CAULFIELD CRACKER:
R2: No. 4 TOTAL ATTRACTION: Put the writing on the wall resuming in good quality race at Moonee Valley over 1200m when he found the line well. Placed nicely on the limit over here over more suitable trip, and will round them up in the run home.
NEIL’S DOOMBEN DASHERS:
R3: No. 5 CATASHEE: Two runs back from a spell have been good, and just missed last start when finishing hard. Steps up now to more suitable 1350m trip, and drawn to get a lovely smoother. Will get a price with favourite Hidden Kisses in the field, so launch in!
R4: No. 5 STARTSMEUP: Will go around a hot odds-on favourite, but only rotten luck can bring him undone. Smaller field suits drawn in, and should win on his ear! Recommended Catashee into Startsmeup All-Up!
MY BEST IN THE WEST (Belmont)
R1: No. 5 NAVARDA LAD: Consistent performer who is beautifully placed here over the right trip with top jockey on board!