The Doomben part of the Winter Carnival concluded last Saturday with a thrilling edition of the Carlton Mid Doomben 10,000, which was taken out by boom filly Sea Siren. The focus now shifts across the road to Eagle Farm this weekend for Treasury Casino Queensland Oaks Day. The $400,000 Group One, run over 2400m, promises to be a cracking affair given how strong the field is.
The support card is superb. Mental is looking to gain a start in the Aami Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) with a win in the $350,000 Group Two Queensland Guineas (1400m). Given he was very impressive in his Queensland debut last start, it’s hard seeing him losing this weekend.
One of the highlights of the afternoon will be the clash of Academus and Sizzling in the $250,000 Group Two Brc Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m). Sizzling will start favourite, but rider Chris Munce came out this week and stated that he had reservations about the colt running a strong 1400m.
And with a host of other feature races, it promises to be a beauty of an afternoon.
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Race One: Mittys Plate (C6) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: There is plenty to like about Rhetoric. I think he is a really nice up-and-comer. Resumed three weeks ago on the Cushion track at the Sunshine Coast and was run off his legs, but still ran a credible fourth, before stepping up to 1800m on the grass track there and producing his usual barnstorming finish to record a top win. His biggest test to date here, but he has upside, Scriven jumps on which is no loss and the $12 on offer is juicy.
Don’t Back Me: Happy to stay away from On Face Value. I felt he had every chance last week behind Raise Up. He needs to improve in order to win.
Big Danger: If it wasn’t for the lightweight, I’d suggest that Scriven would be aboard Equissential. In saying that, Jeff Lloyd is a world class rider and he’ll give this son of Jet Spur a soft run and if you back through his form, his best runs have been at Eagle Farm.
Roughie: Sweet Little Filly won very easily last start in the wet at the Sunshine Coast in a much easier race. She drops 4.5kg, drawn well and if the rain comes, then she is right in the mix.
$250 Rhetoric Free Bet
Race Two: Treasury Casino Spear Chief Handicap 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Huge watch on the former European stayer Miss Crissy. Has some very good form overseas and is now making her Australian debut for Darren Weir. Her lone public apperance here was on May 22 where she trialled at Doomben. It was solid without being spectacular, but she didn’t have her compass with her so she’ll be better off with that experience under her belt. 1500m is well short of her ideal distance, but how can you say no to these imports?
Don’t Back Me: Firebolt is the best horse in the race, but the weight, barrier and weather just completely turns me off him as a chance.
Big Danger: How can Neriani be $16? She is in form, drawn well, handles all conditions and is on the limit. She should get the ideal trip and Dwayne Dunn is riding in solid form of late.
Roughie: The trainer could have easily found a maiden for Torin, a close relation to Makybe Diva, but instead he is asking the gelding to debut in a Listed race over 1500m. From all reports he is flying in trackwork, so the ability is there. He won’t win here, but keep an eye on him.
$250 Miss Crissy Free Bet
Race Three: Al Basti Equiworld Brc Sires’ Produce Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a cracking race. I like Sizzling, but the 1400m is a slight query. Sure, he runs as if he’ll get it with no concerns, but there is that unknown factor. He is the best horse in the race and if he handles the distance, he’ll win.
Don’t Back Me: Noogoora Burr has found some cracking form in his last two starts. In saying that, he can’t win here because he had his chance last start behind Sizzling.
Big Danger: Academus has to go in as the danger. Was unlucky at Hawkesbury (winner has since run second in a hot race at Scone) before running in the Champagne and was hailed the winner until the top tip nailed him right on the line. He has upside, drawn a touch awkwardly, but he has a touch of class about him.
Roughie: Midnight Fury looks the smokey. She was very good last week in the Phoenix after settling well back and being held up for a few strides before getting home well. Extra distance looks good, as does the return to Eagle Farm.
$250 Sizzling Free Bet
Race Four: Al Basti Equiworld Eagle Farm Cup 2200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to declare Scenic Shot a special. His run in the Doomben Cup was outstanding against a superb field. He seems to race best at Eagle Farm (7:4-0-2) and he should be cherry ripe for this. Very hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Bit surprised that the early money came for Shez Sinsational. She has been in work for six months plus and the signs were there that she needs a break in the Doomben Cup where she was very one-paced.
Big Danger: A 12/10 ride by Olly just wasn’t quite good enough to beat Marwingo in the Doomben Cup. She has fresh legs, handles all conditions and is a deserved favourite. But at $2? No thanks. Not a betting proposition for me, but I still rate her as the main danger.
Roughie: Ginga Dude has had two runs this prep for a win in the Member’s Quality and a strong third in the Lord Mayor’s Cup. Drawn the rails, he should be put to sleep and the rise in journey looks very good.
$250 Scenic Shot Free Bet
Race Five: Patinack Farm Dane Ripper Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen to see what Bonnie Mac does here. The wraps were huge on her before she made her Australian debut at Ballarat. She was ridden upside down but still won. She then had the perfect sit off the pace and won at Caulfield before stepping up in grade to Listed company at Morphettville and in the end, she made them look ordinary. I think for the first time since arriving in Oz, we will see her right off the pace given she has an awkward barrier. We will finally get to see how good she really is.
Don’t Back Me: I have my reservations about Red Tracer. Without doubt the best horse in the race and is thrown in at the weights, but she is first up on foreign soil and has a wide barrier.
Big Danger: Wealth Princess won with utter authority in the Glenlogan Park. It has been the most impressive win of the Winter Carnival so far. She’ll get the dream sit here, she handles weight imposts and is another that can perform to her best on dry and wet ground.
Roughie: I can’t see much speed here, so I’d include Upon This Rock and Sophie’s Spirit. They may control the tempo and prove hard to run down. Throw them in the exotics.
$250 Bonnie Mac Free Bet
Race Six: Sky Racing Queensland Guineas 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Mental needs to win to have any chance of qualifying for the Stradbroke and I think he will. He was very impressive when resuming at Hawkesbury, but gee he just oozed class at Doomben. Got held up, forced clear and sprinted away like a star. If it wasn’t for his stablemate, he’d be the best bet of the Carnival.
Don’t Back Me: You’d be mad backing anything other than the Snowden duo.
Big Danger: With luck, Free Wheeling wins the Brc Sprint, but he got pocketed at a vital stage. He is a big, robust type that needs clear galloping space, as we saw in the Hawkesbury Guineas where he gave them a spanking. He is the only danger to Mental.
Roughie: Biggles was just fair at the Gold Coast in his fresh run, but he improved dramatically in the race Mental won where he sat back from the wide barrier and made up good ground late. He has drawn much better here hence he’ll be able to sit a touch closer. $11.90 for the place is appealing.
$250 Mental Free Bet
Race Seven: Treasury Casino Queenslad Oaks 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: How on earth can you be confident here? Fair dinkum lottery this is. I’ve gone with Red Typhoon. She was very unlucky in the Oaks behind Invest in Adelaide. By unlucky I mean that she was given a very bad ride. She made amends with a dominant display over 2500m in the Fillies Classic. Distance is no issue and she has the in-form hoop. Only query is the rain. If it comes, then she is a risk.
Don’t Back Me: I was all over Invest until the barrier draw. It’ll be a special ride from Mertens if she is to win. I wouldn’t touch Dowager Queen either because she has been terrible since her Oaks placing last year behind Mosheen.
Big Danger: Quintessential got home very hard in The Roses behind Invest after settling near last from her bad gate. She has barrier one here, Browne sticks and her form in New Zealand prior to coming to Queensland was excellent.
Roughie: Gee where to look!? I could name 10-15 horses here it is that open. Play very wide.
$250 Red Typhoon Free Bet
Race Eight: Qtc Cup 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Belltone should have won the Brc Sprint when resuming. He sat three and four wide throughout and was only beaten a half length on the line. Barrier five for him here, goes better second up (3:1-1-1) and has a strong record at the track (11:2-3-2).
Don’t Back Me: Torio’s Quest is classy, and deserves to be favourite. But the wide barrier at the 1300m start is not ideal. He’ll need a Bowman special to win.
Big Danger: From all reports, Riva De Lago has worked superbly leading up to this. I had sacked him three starts back because he had just been terrible. But his two runs since have got me back on board, in particular his win at Scone. It was impressive. Big threat given the stable has an exceptional record in Queensland.
Roughie: Celtic Dancer is the first four hope. Surprised everyone when winning the Prime Minister’s Cup at the Gold Coast, but he proved that was no fluke with a close up sixth in the Brc Sprint behind Tiger Tees. He has the paint here, he’ll get the perfect sit and be hard to beat.