Group 1 racing continues in South Australia this Saturday with the stayers taking centre stage in the time-honoured South Australian Derby (2500m).
The $1 million feature has attracted a capacity field of three-year-olds, with the current market favouring last week’s Australasian Oaks place-getter Coco Sun, and Port Adelaide Cup runner-up, Warmonger.
On the back of a boilover Robert Sangster Stakes Day last week, we’ve analysed every race on the South Australian Derby Day program below!
RACE 1 12.22 GRAND SYNDICATES HANDICAP (2004 METRES)
He has been very consistent his last couple of runs, last time out he was stretched out to the 2400 metres at Caulfield behind Gold wolf who is no slouch.
I liked the way he used his tactical speed early to take a position and he stuck on very well considering he was entitled to tire late.
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He gets the right set up here to lead this field, it’s a quite even bunch these staying horses in SA, they all seem to spin around together every week.
I like him dropping back in trip to 2004m from the 2400m I expect a bold front running performance and being hard to run down bringing in somce fresh form lines.
Suggested Bet: No. 6. Zakouma
RACE 2 12.57 SPORTSBET BET WITH MATES HANDICAP (1050 METRES)
She was very well supported last start and saluted, it was a great performance, the market support suggested that she had improved off her last run and into this preparation and it was great to see her do it.
Last start she sat just in behind the speed, darted up the fence and was to sharp for them, she gets a very similar set up here which I like, looks to be good speed from Miss Sunshine who I expect to lead, we should get the gun run just in behind the speed and be hard to hold out.
Suggested Bet: No. 3 Foxy Femme
RACE 3 1.32 HAHN HANDICAP (1050 METRES)
This son of Written Tycoon was sharp winning first up this preparation, his second up from was just ok, the favourite for this race Sunzou has come out of that race and won impressively since, we get a nice weight swing on him here and I believe that brings us right into this race.
Sunzou looks the likely leader, looks to be some pressure from a couple that will kick up inside of him, that should set us up to get the perfect run just in behind the speed, with the weight swing on the favourite and a little freshen up between runs we look very well placed.
Suggested Bet: No. 6 Storyteller
RACE 4 2.07 SPORTSBET ADELAIDE IN AUTUMN FINAL (1504 METRES)
The 6yo Son of Kingman bounced back into the winners circle last start with an impressive win all be it in weaker company, I loved the way he did it, sometimes for a horse like him who hasn’t won for some time they just need to get that out of the way to get their confidence back up and they can really go on with it.
He was a horse early on I had a lot of time for, he was firstly trained by Mark Pegus then went to Team Hayes now finds himself at the Clarken and Oshea yard who seem to have got him back firing. He looks great value for the Each way punters in this race.
Suggested Bet: No. 4 Komachi
RACE 5 2.42 WINNING EDGE PROVINCIAL PATHWAYS (1800 METRES)
Impressive win last start at Balaklava, I loved the way he put the race away on this occasion sitting just in behind a good tempo and charging away late, the 1800m looks ideal.
The favourite was very good winning last start, but I think was aided by a leaders bias track which I don’t think we will get here on Saturday. His win didn’t rate as good as it looked on my data.
At the price Nullify looks a great play each way from the good draw and rise in trip.
Suggested Bet: No. 9 Nullify
RACE 6 3.17 ADELAIDE GUINEAS (1600M)
I have always had plenty of time for this filly, I thought he win at Ballarat two starts ago had plenty of merit, the stable thought the same throwing her straight in the deep end in the Nitchke Stakes last start. She simply should of won the Nitchke no questions, she just could not get clear galloping room late, once she finally eased over heels the last 100m she got with in a long neck of the winner and should never of got that close. It was an outstanding effort.
She is a group class filly in my opinion and I have her marked clear favourite here, Jamie Kah goes back on board and from the good draw with a good run in transit she should be too good.
Suggested Bet: No. 10 Spirit Of Camelot
RACE 7 3.55 SPORTSBET QUEEN ELIZABETH LI CUP (2500 METRES)
Clearly the best local stayer in SA and finds a very winnable race, her main danger is First Immortal who just isn’t going anywhere near his best.
Jamie Kah rides and she has a great record on the mare, I love the draw for her in barrier (1), which some people may be against, the reason I like it is because she can settle closer in the run and save all the ground on the bends, Jamie Kah will get her off just before the bend and she should be the strongest stayer late.
Suggested Bet: No. 2 The Map
RACE 8 4.35 THOMAS FARMS SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2500 METRES)
I was very keen on him last start after his strong run behind Air Assault two starts back, but he simply did not get into the race, D.Lane grabbed a hold of him early and snicked him back to last in the run which then he got keen and didn’t settle, I feel if Lane had of went back up the inside instead of scouting wide he would have been in the finish.
In hindsight it was a great run leading into a Derby, he will run the trip out no problems which most of this field wont. He is drawn wide again but I don’t mind that here as long as he can get some clean galloping room into the straight he should be too strong late.
Suggested Bet: No. 7 Warmonger
RACE 9 5.10 DAVID DT THOMAS FARMS SA SPRINT
Very impressive win first up from this bloke, he went straight passed the likes of Sunzou and Storyteller who I give good chances to earlier in the day, he looks a very progressive galloper that can handle the rise in grade.
Looks to be a good amount of tempo in this race, he is drawn wide and will go back from the draw which will be okay with the tempo that will be set in this race and I expect him to get over the top of them late
He looks a great play to get the punters out in the last after a great days racing at Morphettville.
Suggested Bet: No. 11 Losesomewinmore
