The Randwick track has come under heavy scrutiny in recent times due to its lack of ability in holding rain, and with the forecast of more showers leading up Saturday, it’ll be interesting to see how it holds up. A couple of $100,000 Listed races highlight the card, those being the Stayers Cup (3200m) and the June Stakes (1100m).
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Race One (11:50) : Golden Rose Noms Close June 10 Plate 1200m
Back Me: Berimbau had been knocking on the door to breakthrough and she did exactly that in fine style last start at Kembla Grange as a raging $1.60 favourite. Drops 3kg from that run here thanks to the claim for Clipperton, and of the raced brigade, I feel she has them covered. The debutantes are the unknown.
Big Danger: Statton had two runs at the start of the year. On debut at Rosehill he sat three wide on the speed and was beaten less than three lengths by Fighting Sun, who would have gone very close to winning the Slipper had he stayed sound. Statton then went under the lights at Canterbury and saluted narrowly. He has had a couple of solid barrier trials to prepare for his return to raceday, and if he brings that Fighting Sun form here, he’ll go close.
Roughie: Bayrock was backed off the map on debut at Newcastle a couple of weeks back and pinged over from the wide gate to lead, but was found wanting badly over the last 100m and finished a disappointing fourth. Trialled very well prior to that value, so I’d give him another chance here on his home track.
Race Two (12:25) : TAB Rewards Handicap (80) 2000m
Back Me: Saigon Tea looks the way to go here. She was badly held up last week at Canterbury, then when she saw daylight, she really savaged the line, so I really like the fact that Waller is stepping her up to 2000m from the mile there. Drops to the minimum, Cassidy takes over, and in all honesty, take her and one or two others out, this is a very ordinary race.
Big Danger: I think through process of elimination, Casino Dancer has to go in as the danger. She was seemingly battling in the early part of the straight last week at Rosehill, but found late and ran Transonic to a short neck. Generally saves her best for Randwick and will love any rain that hits.
Roughie: German mare Oriental Lady made her Australian debut for Kris Lees over the 1400m here a fortnight back where she got back and worked home okay late behind Sense And Reason. As I said, this is a pretty thin race, and if she brought her German form here, she’d give it a shake.
Race Three (13:00) : Schweppes Handicap (90) 1400m
Back Me: I’m pretty keen here on Rugged Cross. I think you have to put a line through his past two outings, both of which have been at Rosehill. First time he pulled his head off in a race dominated by the leader and eventual winner, Tromso, who came out and won on the weekend. Rugged Cross also raced last weekend and looked to travel well in his respective race, then as he was going for a split, he got badly checked and was eased out of the race. Why I like him here is because Waller is happy enough to back him up seven days later, which is a positive lead for mine, and his best efforts this prep have been in a trial on a wet track and then on another wet track at Caufield where he charged home.
Big Danger: Said Com should have won the Randwick Guineas back in 2012 when narrowly pipped by Mosheen. He has never truly realised his potential ever since and has been a nightmare for punters to follow, but he finds a really good race here I think. Gets some weight relief after the claim, wet track, good gate and back up to 1400m.
Roughie: Taxmeifyoucan was okay first up in the Town Plate at Wagga, then worked home solidly late a fortnight back over this track/distance behind Eigelstein, who is a leading player later on in the program. He strikes a wet track here, and earlier on his career, he was quite effective on it, so that may be the key to see him bounce back to his best.
Race Four (13:35) : Cellarbrations Handicap (75) 1400m
Back Me: Abbasso was sent out at massive odds when causing a minor boilover over this track/distance a fortnight back, aided by a gun ride from Jason Collett, who retains the ride. I think 1400m on a wet Randwick surface will see a few of these out, where as this horse has performed well over the mile, so he’ll have no worries running a tough 1400m here.
Big Danger: Black Revolver hasn’t raced for nearly a month, where he ran a close third to Oxford Poet at Rosehill where he was a touch unlucky late. Black Revolver meets that horse 3.5kg better off for a two length defeat, so I feel he has that horse covered here. Bred to handle the wet and has the right trainer/jockey combination.
Roughie: Vashka was enormous during the Scone Carnival, sitting three wide on a hot speed and only got caught in the last few strides by Tail Risk, who ran well last week at Rosehill. Prior to that he won at Canterbury, and the second and third placegetters have since won, so the form around her is excellent and gets down to the minimum after the claim for Clipperton.
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Race Five (14:12) : Stayers Cup 3200m
Back Me: Very tricky race. Leaning towards Destiny’s Kiss despite the 59kg impost. He was a very impressive winner at Warwick Farm, then worked home well in the Scone Cup before chasing a real up and comer in the shape of La Amistad. Like most of these, there is a question mark at 3200m, but I feel he has the talent and turn of foot to beat these provided they don’t go at an above average tempo.
Big Danger: Secessio tried his guts out in that race won by La Amistad, but one thing to note is that he was well held by Destiny’s Kiss for that second spot, and there is no differential in weight from there to here, as well as the fact that Destiny’s Kiss has the extra run in the legs. In saying that, he has the Waller polish and nothing is beyond that man at the moment.
Roughie: Vatuvei bounced back to some sort of form last start with a gritty second over this distance at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden. Prior to that he did bolt in a jumps trial, so that may have sparked him up and with the rain expected, he comes right into contention.
Race Six (14:50) : June Stakes 1100m
Back Me: She may have to carry the 59kg here, but Avoid Lightning is low flying at the moment and has to go on top. Les Bridge has done a remarkable job with this mare, similar to that of what Waller did with Arinosa 18 months back. She was a dominant winner over this track/distance a fortnight back off the back of a hot speed, and she should get a similar scenario with the likes of Zaratone and Hurrara carving out hot early sectionals. Clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: Recoinage worked home well to run second to Avoid Lightning in that race mentioned above. Her wet track credentials are a touch suspect, but she does get a weight pull here on Avoid Lightning and gets on the minimum, so she can cause an upset with luck.
Roughie: Hidden Warrior is the interesting runner here. Formerly with Paul Perry and is now with Gordon Yorke at Coffs Harbour. He was competitive at this level when last in work, so no doubt the ability is there to win this, and he goes well fresh, plus he has looked stunning in two barrier trial wins, so I’d keep an eye on betting with this horse.
Race Seven (15:30) : TAB iPhone App Handicap (80) 1200m
Back Me: Zin Zan Eddie put out a remarkable performance when resuming over this track/distance two weeks ago, sitting midfield, wide with no cover in a race dominated from the front yet he loomed to win before condition gave out late. That was his first run in 14 months, so it was a great training effort by Matthew Smith. Provided there is no “second up syndrome”, this horse will take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Specific Choice did it again to his followers first up, getting no luck at all (again) and going to the line under a hold (again). He’ll eventually put it together and win again soon, and I guarantee there will be radios and tv’s right across Australia severely damaged when he does greet the judge. That could easily happen here, but you can pretty trust him as much as you can trust Barry Hall on the footy field.
Roughie: Fancy Dress really caught the eye first up at Canterbury, poking up near the inside to run a 1.8L seventh to Burbero. Had trialled very well prior, so that run was no fluke. Yet to place in two second up runs, but she is with a new stable now, so I’d be prepared to give her a good chance here.
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Race Eight (16:10) : Theraces.com.au Handicap (94) 1600m
Back Me: Eigelstein on top for me. Should be noted he is also an acceptor at Eagle Farm. Caught the eye first up at Rosehill behind last Saturday’s winner Tromso, then raced here over the 1400m and got the job done in the last couple of strides to beat a future star in Excess Knowledge. Can handle the wet and loves Randwick.
Big Danger: Frozen Rope was quite poor last prep, but he has turned it right around in two Rosehill runs this time in. Worked home well behind Tromso, then was narrowly beaten by Timeless Prince last week in a bunched finish. I’d put a line through his record at Randwick, because he raced twice here last prep and wasn’t 100% right. Up in distance here and more importantly, he gets a wet track, where he improves many, many lengths.
Roughie: Fulgur worked home very strongly last week behind Tromso after settling near last. That was his first run in five months, and prior to that, he generally doesn’t perform first up, so that tells me he is in for a very good campaign.
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Best Bet: Race Two Number 7 Saigon Tea
Next Best: Race Three Number 9 Rugged Cross
Value Bet: Race Seven Number 2 Zin Zan Eddie
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 10
Leg Four: 1, 4, 11
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