The feature event of the day is the time-honoured VRC Derby. A full field of sixteen runners will face the starter and, with a number of the leading chances having arrived at this race via different lead-up races, punters have their work cut out for them here. Savvy Nature holds the call at $4.60 just in advance of Complacent $5.00 with Polanski and San Diego at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively. It hasn’t been a kind race to punters in the past with the most recent three winners, Fiveandahalfstar, Sangster and Lion Tamer all starting at double figure odds.

Victoria Derby 2013 Field

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Victoria Derby Form Guide

1. CRITERION – C Williams (14)

Given his performances as a 2yo, much more was expected of him than what he produced in the G2 Run To The Roses and G1 Golden Rose, his first two runs back as a 3yo. It was until his third run in and stepping up to 1500m of the G2 Stan Fox Stakes that the David Payne trained runner showed signs of improvement. In the small field, he closed well to run a head second to Eurozone before lining up in the G1 Champion Stakes (2000m) where he settled worse than midfield but was hitting the line as well as anything to run second, 1 ¼ lengths behind Complacent. It was an impressive trial for this race and he appears to be enjoying very much, the longer trips.

Odds: $9.00

2. COMPLACENT – K McEvoy (16)

The Darley runner has strung three wins together since a brief six week let-up with his most recent outing resulting in a 1 ¼ length victory in the G1 Champion Stakes (2000m). As was the case in his previous start when he won the G3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m), he was afforded the run of the race and proved too strong late for Criterion and Savvy Nature (won G2 Valley Vase since). Drawn much wider here however, cannot knock winning form and Darley have enjoyed a remarkable run with their three year olds this spring. To add the VRC Derby to the list would be the cherry on top.

Odds: $5.50

3. SAVVY NATURE – J McDonald (13)

After winning the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle in good style four starts back, the Savabeel gelding chased home Complacent in both the G3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) and G1 Champion Stakes (2000m) finishing second and third respectively. In both races he drew wide and got back in the run whilst Complacent box-seated through-out. In solid form and without Complacent in the field to worry about, he started the short priced favourite in last week’s G2 The Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley. The field was light in terms of depth but he did win comfortably all the same, scoring by three lengths. Again he hasn’t drawn well but his form has been rock solid and the distance well within his reach.

Odds: $4.60

4. POLANSKI – J Bowman (1)

Got back in the run at his first two runs this preparation – the G2 Danehill Stakes and G2 Bill Stutt Stakes – and finished well behind the winner in each event. It wasn’t until he reached the 1800 of the Listed Uci Stakes at Caulfield and being ridden much closer to the speed that the Ratki colt started to display his staying potential. After a sweet run in the Uci Stakes where he accounted for Epic Saga by half a length, he lined up in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield. Again, he gained a lovely run throughout and was afforded every chance in the run and in the final stages, was able wear down San Diego by a head. He should get the run of the race again here from a good draw and gives every indication that he’ll stay the trip comfortably. Bowman has won this race twice in the past three years.

Odds: $7.00

5. DRAGO – D Oliver (18)

This Danehill Dancer colt has always promised a lot but as yet, we’re still waiting for him to deliver. After running third in the Gloaming Stakes (1800m) behind Complacent and Savvy Nature, more was expected from him at his next start, the G1 Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick, where he finished seventh and 3 ½ lengths behind Complacent. His final hit-out for this race was last week’s G2 The Vase at Moonee Valley where, in an attempt to help him find his form, they rode him from the front. Unfortunately for connections it didn’t do the trick and he finished a well beaten and disappointing fifth. Trainer and Jockey combined to win this race last year with Fiveandahalfstar but have their work cut out for them with this galloper.

Odds: $34.00

6. SAN DIEGO – S Arnold (6)

Ran home well when resuming from a spell in the Listed Henry Bucks (1400m) three starts back, finishing third behind subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner Long John. He then drew the inside gate in the Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) – which has proven to be “the” form race for the 3yo’s – at Moonee Valley and, being a big horse, didn’t appear to appreciate the tight Valley circuit or limited room he had on the fence and finished sixth (4.2 lengths) behind Divine Calling and Shamus Award. The son of Exceed and Excel than drew the extreme opposite in the G3 Norman Robinson and started from the widest gate in a field of thirteen. He was taken forward early to lead and held all bar Polanski off, who had a sweet run and last shot at him. That was his first run for three weeks and he has drawn the ideal gate in six here which should see him get a lovely run off pace. Has to be rated a legitimate chance.

Odds: $7.50

7. HONEY’S STEEL GOLD – L Nolen (2)

The Keep The Faith gelding finished a disappointing second to last and fifteen lengths of Divine Calling in the Bill Stutt Stakes two starts back. He had a three weeks break before his next and most recent start in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m). From the inside draw, he gained a lovely run on the leader’s (San Diego, ran 2^nd) back but couldn’t go with the leader’s in the straight and finished fourth, 4 ¾ lengths away. He’ll get his chance again from another good draw but needs to improve considerably on last start to be winning this.

Odds: $51.00

8. TIPS AND BEERS – B Prebble (11)

Made it three straight wins with an impressive length win over 1600m at Caulfield in a BM 78 two starts back, finishing well from the tail of the field to account for Mantener Le Fe. Off of that run, he was considered one of the legitimate challenges to Savvy Nature in last week’s G2 The Vase at Moonee Valley. The David Hayes trained runner landed in a nice spot on the fence midfield during the run but when the tempo of the race picked up leaving the 600m, he found himself behind some horses that were unable to quicken. Once in the clear, after the winner had made his move wider out, he finished only fairly for fourth, just over five lengths behind the winner. Excuses last start and did show some good signs at his previous win. Maybe best to judge him on those efforts.

Odds: $34.00

9. EPIC SAGA – C Symons (17)

Continues to fill a place in the right lead-up races but the son of Real Saga also continues to find at least one better than him on the day. He looked to have the Listed Uci Stakes in his grasp heading into the final furlong before Tips and Beers swooped late two starts back when second, beaten ½ length. At his most recent start he stuck on well from an on-pace position but found Polanski and San Diego a shade too strong when third in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m). Has had every chance in both of his last starts but drawn poorly here and hard to see him overcoming that obstacle plus, being able to find the extra lengths needed to win.

Odds: $34.00

10. TUPAC AMARU – C Newitt (8)

The third of Darley’s representatives (Complacent and San Diego the others) this Street Cry colt will no doubt stay the trip judging by his grinding effort in the Geelong Classic last start when second to Gamblin’ Guru. That followed a strong finish, in a race dominated by the leaders, in the Listed Uci Stakes at his previous start. Newitt is a strong rider and will compliment this galloper well. Don’t think he’ll wait for things to happen in the race. If he can be in a mid-field or better position approaching the turn, he may force the issue and make this a true test of staying capabilities.

Odds: $15.00

11. PINSTRIPE LACE – N Rawiller (3)

Cracked his maiden status two starts back (his fourth career start) with victory in a Cranbourne Maiden (2060m). The John Sadler galloper than handled the significant rise in class and belied his quote of 40/1 in the Listed Uci Stakes, finishing fourth and within two lengths of the winner Polanski As he did in the Uci Stakes, he again was doing his best work last in last week’s G2 The Vase when third behind Savvy Nature (beaten 4 ¼ lengths). He has been nothing if not honest in his past two starts but still needs to find a few extra lengths to account for some of his more fancied rivals here.

Odds: $17.00

12. THROW THE KING – T Sadler

Stable-mate to Pinstripe Lane, this son of former Derby winner Elvstroem is certainly bred to get the trip being by a Zabeel mare. His efforts thus far though suggest he is likely to struggle. He won a Bendigo Maiden two starts back over 1600m as the 11/4 favourite before jumping up in distance and grade when finishing third in the field of five behind Gamblin’ Guru in the Geelong Classic (2200m). That was his first look at a heavy track and he’ll be fitter again for having had the run over the trip however, he is entitled to be big odds.

Odds: $101.00

13. THUNDER FANTASY – P Robl (7)

Commenced this campaign four starts ago with a comfortably two length victory in a Hawkesbury Maiden and immediately backed that up with an even better performance in a Class 1 at Newcastle, winning by five. Trainer Anthony Cummings then entered the Lucky Owners colt in the listed Dulcify Quality and given the significant rise in grade, he did well to finish fifth, 2 ½ lengths behind Rock Hero. From a wide gate he then got a long way back in his most recent start, the G1 Champion Stakes and ran home evenly to finish ninth of fourteen, 4.6 lengths behind Complacent. Better draw here should see him take up a forward positions but still unproven at the top level.

Odds: $41.00

14. SURGING WAVE – N Hall (15)

Caught the eye finishing well behind Polanski in the Listed Uci Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield two starts back, when fifth (beaten 1.9 lengths.) After that performance and on face value, his last start seventh (beaten 7.2 lengths) behind Polanski and San Diego in the G3 Norman Robinson was disappointing. However, he did settle at the tail of the field whilst the race was dominated by those up on the speed. Think he is a better horse than that and no jockey riding in finer form at present than Nick Hall. He could be the value runner of the race.

Odds: $21.00

15. FAMECHON – D Dunn (4)

The Mike Moroney trained runner closed very well two starts back to run third behind Polanski in the Listed Uci Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield. He then started 13/2 in the G3 Norman Robinson and was given every chance by Dunn who settled him fifth on the fence in the run. He got onto the eventual winner’s back on the home turn and simply wasn’t good enough in the end, finishing sixth (beaten 6.4 lengths). Will get a good run again but can’t see him improving off of his last start enough to figure in the selections here.

Odds: $21.00

16. BRING SOMETHING – G Boss (12)

A Sebring gelding who was doing his best work over the final stages of the 1600m G2 Bill Stutt Stakes when fourth (beaten 2.9 lengths) behind Divine Calling and Shamus Award, two starts back. He then got too far back and finished fifth (beaten 3.1 lengths) behind Polanski and San Diego, who dominated the race from up front, in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) Last start wasn’t run to suit and a more genuine tempo here will be much more in his favour.

Odds: $21.00

17. CADILLAC MOUNTAIN – D Stackhouse (9) (1^st Em)

Won a Seymour Maiden two starts back, his third career start but then found the substantial rise in grade well beyond him, finishing a well beaten ninth in the G3 Norman Robinson (20000m) a fortnight ago. Off of that run, impossible to see him winning the VRC Derby.

Odds: $51.00

18. EMPIRE ROCK – D Moor (10) (2^nd Em)

The fact the he was beaten in a Yarra Glen maiden last start by 3 ½ lengths sums up his chances.

Odds: $301.00

RACE OVERVIEW

With all bar two runners venturing past 2000m for the first time, securing a good run in transit and saving petrol for the final run home is vital. Polanski and San Diego, the quinella from the Norman Robinson, have both drawn ideally and should secure such runs. Others at the top end of the market Criterion, Complacent and Savvy Nature have all drawn wide and will need to rely on luck early in running, commit to go forward or, give the leader’s a start heading for home but, each of these runners do have a touch of class on their rivals and have been in rock solid form. A couple who could keep the recent trend of decent priced winners saluting in this race are Surging Wave ($21.00) and Bring Something ($21.00) who both got back in the Norman Robinson and can improve with a more genuine tempo here.

1. SAN DIEGO
2. CRITERION
3. POLANSKI
4. BRING SOMETHING

In the news:

The sight of Complacent bounding off the turf at Flemington on Tuesday morning did nothing to boost the confidence of trainer John O’Shea who is preparing Victoria Derby rival Savvy Nature.

The Peter Snowden-trained Complacent has defeated Savvy Nature in the Gloaming Stakes and Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney and looms as the horse to beat in Saturday’s $1.5 million race.

“One of the first things I saw this morning was him (Complacent) coming off the track bouncing,” O’Shea said.

“He’s obviously feeling very good. Peter will have him trained to the minute. He’ll be well ridden and well prepared, so we’re going to have to really step up to the plate if we want to win.”

O’Shea is hoping Savvy Nature can turn the tables on Complacent in the race he’s been aimed at all preparation.

“He’s been set for one race and right at the moment it seems to be right on track,” he said.

Savvy Nature joined Complacent as Derby favourite with victory in last Saturday’s Group Two Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley, a race Snowden decided he didn’t need to run Complacent in to have him at his best for Saturday.

O’Shea insists the barrier draw will play a big part in Savvy Nature’s chances.

“I think that if we are going to win, the barriers are going to be vital,” O’Shea said.

“The two times we’ve met him (Complacent), we’ve had to give him a big start. We just need to draw a gate where we can sort of get within striking distance in the run so that we are not setting ourself too great a task.”

The Randwick-based trainer hopes to draw inside barrier eight.

He expects the seven-day back-up, a bigger track and the experience Savvy Nature gained from his first Melbourne start to help.

And O’Shea is also confident the son of Savabeel can run out the Derby trip.

O’Shea also has VRC Oaks contender Gypsy Diamond lining up at Flemington on Saturday in the Group Two Wakeful Stakes (2000m).

Gypsy Diamond took out the Group Two Fillies Classic (1600m) at Moonee Valley last Friday night and has pleased O’Shea since.