After finally breaking is Group 1 maiden status two starts ago, at attempt number seventeen, Buffering is set to make three wins at the elite level in a row when he lines up in Saturday’s Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot. He is the obvious favourite at $2.25 and along with fellow interstate visitors Spirit Of Boom ($8.00) and Moment Of Change ($6.50), who themselves have both performed well during the spring carnival, dominate the market. Best of the local hopes according to the market is Barakey who made it twelve wins from thirteen starts with his recent victory in the G3 Price of Wales Stakes.
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Winterbottom Stakes Form Guide
1. BUFFERING – D Browne (8)
A sentimental favourite with race-goers, Buffering secured his thirteenth career win and his first Group 1 victory when claiming the G1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley two starts ago in a typically tenacious front-running effort. Defeating Lucky Nine by a nose and the fast finishing Moment Of Change (4th), many thought the tables would turn on him when these horses all met again in the G1 VRC Sprint on Stakes Day at Flemington a fortnight ago.
Again Buffering led and defied all challenges to win by ¾ of a length defeating Shamexpress and Moment of Change. Form is impeccable, will go forward and be the one they have to run down.
2. SPIRIT OF BOOM – N Hall (1)
Returned to racing off a fifteen week spell with a fast-finishing neck third to Sessions in the G2 The Shorts before an equally strong performance when ¾ of a length second to Platelet in the G2 Gilgai Stakes at Flemington. He was rewarded for his consistency when at his next start, the G2 Caulfield Sprint (1200m), he swooped down the outside and avoided the traffic jam closer to the fence to record a ¾ of a length win over Shamal Wind (who has ran well since). The 6yo by Sequalo is going as well as he ever and, given he ran third in this race last year, has to be rated a legitimate chance again but will need some luck from the inside gate.
3. MOMENT OF CHANGE – L Nolen (9)
Started 6/4 favourite when resuming in G2 Mitty’s McEwan Stakes at the tight Moonee Valley circuit but found the 1000m too sharp and Kuroshio too quick when second, beaten 1 ¾ length. He was then comprehensively beaten by Samaready in the G1 Moir Stakes before a four week break and much improved effort, when finishing strongly over the final stages to run fourth (beaten 0.6 lengths), behind Buffering in the G1 Manikato Stakes (1200m). Off that run he was considered a leading chance in last fortnight’s G1 VRC Sprint and from the jump, settled on the pace and within striking distance of Buffering however, when Buffering picked up the pace mid race, he wasn’t able to go with him and only hold his position to the line, running third (2.6 lengths). Two of his last three wins have been over 1400m and for him to be turning the tables on Buffering, would prefer him over a longer trip than this.
4. BARAKEY – J Brown (2)
Winner of this race last year, the 6yo by Key Business returned off a seven month spell with victory in the Group 3 Prince of Wales Stakes (1200m) just short of a month ago. He crossed from a wide gate to lead and was able to just hang on recording a narrow victory over Power Princess and Checkpoint. A good effort given he was first up and set the pace. He’ll be better for that run and has been given a solid hit-out since in a Belmont Park barrier trial a fortnight ago. Only tasted defeat once in thirteen starts and, unlike some of his opponents, he would have been set specifically for this race some time ago. Drawn ideally for a horse who will take up a forward position and it is impossible to leave him out of calculations.
5. WATERMAN’S BAY – G Smith (6)
Back-maker who has found himself just off the pace in three runs back from a six month spell. The 5yo finished fifth of eight behind Barakey in the G3 Prince of Wales (1200m), beaten 2 ¼ lengths second up, before finishing well to claim third (3.1 lengths) in the G3 Colonel Reeves (1100m) just over a fortnight ago behind The Rising. The return to six furlongs will assist but this is his first go at Group 1 racing and for him to be winning here, would have wanted to see more from him at his recent outings.
6. BEACH EXPRESS – D Staeck (13)
He finished his last campaign in good form winning three of four starts including the Listed WATC Stakes (1100m) and Listed Northam Stakes (1100m) before being sent out for a twenty week spell. The son of Success Express has had two runs back and although having been allocated big weights (59kgs) on both occasions, has finished well down the track at each run. He finished second to last at his most recent start as a 20/1 chance behind The Rising in the G3 Colonel Reeves (1100m). He steps up again in class but receives little weight relief, has drawn the widest gate and, on the efforts displayed since his return, cannot be included among the chances.
7. EXCELORADA – S Parnham (4)
This time last year the Neville Parnham trained son of Exceed And Excel could do no wrong. He won three from four including the Listed R. S. Crawford Stakes and Listed Summer Scorcher on New Year’s Day. His return to racing nine month later in October of this year, didn’t go to plan with the rider losing an iron and he finishing second to last under 60kgs in a BM 84 race but his two subsequent starts, which have both seen him finish well down the track in both the G3 Prince Of Wales and G3 Colonel Reeves behind Barakey and The Rising respectively, have been plain at best. Kept improving with each run last year but hasn’t been able to make the step up to better races this time in.
8. TIGER PETE – J Noske (7)
The Shovhog 5yo made it nine wins from twenty-one starts last month when scoring a strong length win as the 15/8 favourite over Angel Of Mercy in a BM 78 (1300m). His only run since, a fortnight ago in Open company, saw him run second to Smoko in a race over 1200m. He was held up for a run in the straight and the beaten margin of 2 ¼ lengths should’ve been less however, faces a stiff rise in class here and hard to see him meeting the challenge.
9. THE RISING – S McGruddy (11)
He is an improving and lightly raced 4yo who has won seven of his ten starts including, at his most recent outing, the G3 Colonel Reeves (1100m). He settled in the box seat last start and proved too strong, by 1 ¾ lengths, for Mendacity and Waterman’s Bay. He did have only 54kgs to carry last start compared to the 58.5kgs here under the WFA conditions and whilst his still on the improve, doubt the level of improvement in him would be enough to see him beat home several of the top runners in this race.
10. CHECKPOINT – B Parnham (10)
5yo by Snitzel who has gone agonisingly close at both of his runs back since returning from a nine month spell. He resumed as a 40/1 chance in the G3 Prince of Wales and chased Barakey tenaciously in the run home to finishing third and within a length of the winner. He again settled on the speed and in the WFA G3 Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) at his next and most recent start and was pipped on the line by Conservatorium. Third and fourth home in the race were Ranger and Luckygray who, along with the winner, are proven performers Third up, proven last start at WFA and capable of sticking on, he would appear to represent one of the better local hopes in the race but has blown dramatically in early better from $17 to $31.
11. DOMINATING – D Oliver (5)
Tackles this race at only his second run back from a nineteen week spell and whilst his second up record reads well (he has won two from three and placed in the other), none of those starts have been in a G1 WFA race. He stepped out as the 7/4 favourite when resuming earlier this month in the G3 Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m) and from a good draw, settled in a handy position to the lead. The son of Snitzel however didn’t raise backer’s hopes in the run home and finished a disappointing seventh of eleven (beaten 3.9 lengths) to The Rising. To include him among the hopes here, he had to be coming off a much better performance than what he produced last start.
12. SHINING KNIGHT – W Pike (3)
Son of Blackfriars showed some promise as a 3yo by running second in Listed company and starting a 5/1 chance in the G2 WA Guineas of 2011 however, injury forced him to the sidelines for seventeen months after that season and we didn’t see him race again then until May of this year. A fantastic effort by both horse and trainer have seen him claim two of his four races since resuming including, at his most recent start, an Ascot Open class race over 1000m three weeks ago. He finished strongly from the tail of the field on that occasion but it’s hard to envisage him doing this same in this race given the substantial rise he faces in both class and weight.
13. POWER PRINCESS – P Knuckey (12)
The only mare in the race, the 7yo trained by Simon Miller has only had the two starts this year. A win in the G3 Roma Cup (1200m) at Belmont Park back in May and a nose second to Barakey in the G3 Prince Of Wales (1200m). She again ran second to Barakey when both horses trailed at Belmont Park since the Price of Wales. Obviously not much between her and the well fancied Barakey but after drawing wide in gate 12, her job has been made a lot more difficult.
RACE OVERVIEW
Buffering to lead with Barakey keeping him honest. Drawn directly on Buffering’s outside, Moment of Change should be able to follow him across and be prominent and Spirit of Boom, drawn the fence, may be ridden a little closer to the speed than he generally is. Just can’t go past Buffering as the one to beat and coming off two good G1 victories, both races with greater depth than this. Not sure where the improvement would come from that Moment Of Change would need to produce but given he’s been placed behind Buffering last start and finished within a length the start prior to that, he’s the obvious second pick. Best of the local hopes is Barakey. Set for this race, drawn well and is a prolific winner with Spirit Of Boom – would’ve preferred drawing wider, to round out the places.
- BUFFERING
- MOMENT OF CHANGE
- BARAKEY
- SPIRIT OF BOOM
