In their four previous trips to the Super Bowl with Bill Belichick as coach and Tom Brady at quarterback, the New England Patriots threatened to go into overtime.
They eked out wins in 2002, 2004 and 2005 and lost by three points to the New York Giants in a 2008 classic.
When New England and New York face off again on Sunday (Monday AEDT), the Patriots will be favoured by three points.
And there’s a high chance that margin will be decided in an unprecedented overtime.
Each team is on a roll, with the Patriots winning all 10 games since a home loss to the Giants in November. New York then lost four straight before turning it around with closing victories to win the NFC East division.
“It’s the same teams but, in our mindset, a lot of new players,” said Giants quarterback Eli Manning, one of the heroes of the 17-14 win four years ago.
“We had 16 guys and New England only has seven guys who were on that team. A lot of guys who are going to be key factors in this game did not play in that last Super Bowl.”
What the Giants must do is get a pass rush on Brady. They had five sacks and at least nine hits on him in the 2008 game, and they pressured him throughout the regular-season win last November. If they can make Brady uncomfortable and rush his throws, it ruins the tempo of New England’s no-huddle offence.
“It wouldn’t be the Super Bowl if they weren’t talking about coming to knock me down and trying to knock me out. That’s what I expect. And you know what? Our offensive line gets paid to keep those guys out of there.”
With Brady virtually no threat to run, the Giants will try to condense the passing pocket so much that Brady can’t step into his throws. If that doesn’t happen, receiver Wes Welker and dynamic tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez could be tough to cover; New York’s secondary isn’t strong enough to prosper without the big pass rush.
Gronkowski’s high left ankle sprain is problematic for New England, although everyone expects him to play. But if he’s limited in gaining yards after the catch, a particular strength, it also can hurt the Patriots.
Where New England truly have stepped up recently is on defence, and the Giants will test that improvement. Manning’s three wideouts – Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham – can’t all be double-teamed, and each is capable of game-breaking plays. Belichick will come up with something creative to slow them.
“For every team you play, I think our coaches do a great job as far as scouting them, breaking them down, and then we get our game plan,” said Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington.
The Super Bowl may go into overtime for the first time and the NFL’s rule – allowing both teams to have the ball if the first possession results in a field goal – will come into play.