WHAT THE NRL’S FINALS CONTENDERS NEED
1. MELBOURNE (40pts, +323) vs North Queensland at AAMI Park
Final position: 1st only
Nothing to achieve for Melbourne in the last round other than maintaining momentum. A win will make them just the second salary-cap-compliant side since 2001 to notch up 20 victories in one season.
2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (36pts, +270) vs South Sydney at ANZ Stadium
Final position: 2nd only
Locked in to second spot and a home final at the SCG next weekend. Momentum and Boyd Cordner’s fitness on return from a leg injury will be the main concern against their arch-rivals.
3. CANBERRA (32pts, +154) vs Warriors at GIO Stadium
Final position: 3rd-4th
Need to either beat the Warriors or have Souths lose to the Roosters to ensure they don’t travel to Melbourne in the first week of finals. Otherwise, a clash with the Tri-colours beckons at the SCG. Could only fall out of the top four if Manly make up 89 points on them in for-and-against, which won’t happen.
4. SOUTH SYDNEY (32pts, +98) vs Sydney Roosters at ANZ Stadium
Final position: 3rd-5th
A win over the Roosters will ensure a top-four spot and a second chance come finals. If they are beaten and Manly topple Parramatta, they’ll need the combined margins from the two games to be less than 32 points to stay fourth. A win could put also put them third if Canberra lose to the Warriors.
5. MANLY (30pts, +66) vs Parramatta at Bankwest Stadium
Final position: 4th-6th
Need to win and have Souths lose with a combined margin of 32 points or more to go fourth. A loss by 12 or more will see them drop to sixth, and likely face the in-form Brisbane in the first week of the finals assuming the Broncos account for Canterbury.
6. PARRAMATTA (28pts, + 44) vs Manly at Bankwest Stadium
Final position: 5th-6th
Certain to host an elimination final next week. A win by 12 or more will put them fifth and pit them against the eighth-placed team and a theoretically slightly easier opponent in the second week of the finals with the loser of 1v4. A loss will leave them sixth, and slated to play seventh in week one.
7. BRISBANE (25pts, +41) vs Canterbury at ANZ Stadium
Final position: 7th-9th
Can’t miss the finals unless they lose to Canterbury on Saturday night and Cronulla and Wests Tigers play out a draw on Sunday. Are otherwise playing for position, with a win to keep them seventh at the end of the season.
8. CRONULLA (24pts, +33) vs Wests Tigers at Leichhardt
Final position: 7th-9th
A win over the Wests Tigers will move them into the finals and a loss will see them miss out for the first time since 2014. Intriguingly, a draw is also good enough for Cronulla to advance due to their superior for-and-against, while if they win and Brisbane lose they will finish seventh.
9. WESTS TIGERS (24pts, +6) vs Cronulla at Leichhardt
Final position: 7th-9th
Must beat Cronulla at Leichhardt on Sunday to advance into their first finals series since 2011. A draw will only be good enough if Brisbane are to lose to Canterbury, otherwise Cronulla would still qualify over the top of them due to for-and-against. Can finish seventh if they win and the Broncos lose.
