Souths Sydney Rabbitohs are now equal $5.50 favourites with Penrith to win the 2021 Grand Final – just hours out from their season opener against Melbourne.

The Redfern-based outside have been solid all week at $5.50 but Penrith have gone from $5.25 out to $5.50 which has seen them lost outright favouritism.

TAB has reshuffled other parts of the premiership market too after Cameron Smith announced his retirement yesterday with the Gold Coast the big losers out of that. The Titans had firmed from $19-$14 following speculation Smith could be headed there this season, however, with that not happening they have blown back out.

Looking to tonight’s NRL season opener at AAMI Park and the money has fluctuated wildly at TAB between Melbourne and Souths to the point where they can’t be separated.

The Storm were installed $1.65 favourites for the game back in late November and were still favoured two days ago, only just, at $1.85 but yesterday were surpassed by Souths. The Rabbitohs, $2.25 on opening, came into $1.85 favourites yesterday but are now back level with their opponents.

Money overnight and into today has turned back into Melbourne’s favour after Souths were holding slightly more money in Head-to-Head betting for most of this week. The Storm are now holding slightly more than Wayne Bennett’s side.

In other betting news:

• Josh Addo-Carr is the most popular player in the First Tryscorer market in front of Alex Johnston
• Ryan Papenhuyzen ($14) and Latrell Mitchell ($16) are the best supported players outside Addo-Carr in Johnston to cross the line first
• A Souths 1-12 victory is clearly the most popular option in Margin betting and accounts for 25 percent of the total investment

BETS OF NOTE ON TONIGHT’S GAME

MELBOURNE – $2,290 @ $1.95, $5,000 @ $1.90

SOUTHS – $2,000 @ $1.95, $2,000 @ $1.85

MONEYBALL – (% of the hold each team has in the H2H market)

Melbourne 51%

Souths 49%

TAB ODDS

HEAD-TO-HEAD (current)

$1.90     Melbourne

$1.90     Souths

HEAD-TO-HEAD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS

(On Nov 26, 2020)

$1.65     Melbourne

$2.25     Souths

(On Mar 9)

$1.85     Melbourne

$1.95     Souths

(On Mar 10)

$1.95     Melbourne

$1.85     Souths

LINE

$1.80     Melbourne +1.5

$2           Souths -1.5

MARGIN

$3           Souths 1-12

$3.30     Melbourne 1-12

$4.20     Melbourne 13+

$4.50     Souths 13+

FIRST TRYSCORER

$9           Alex Johnston, Josh Add-Carr

$10         George Jennings, Josh Mansour

$11         Jaxson Paulo

$14         Campbell Graham, Dane Gagai, Justin Olam, Ryan Papenhyzen

$15         Reimis Smith

$16         Latrell Mitchell

$17+      Others

NRL OFFER

$4           Addo Carr / Johnston BOTH 1+ Try

NRL PREMIERSHIP WINNER (current prices) – TAB Odds

$5.50     Penrith (were $5.25 earlier this week)

$5.50     Souths

$6.50     Melbourne

$7          Syd Roosters (were $7.50 earlier this week)

$10        Canberra

$15        Parramatta

$17         Gold Coast (were $14 earlier this week)

$26        Manly, Newcastle (both were $23 earlier this week)

$34        Warriors, Nth Queensland (were $29 earlier this week)

$34        Cronulla

$41        Bulldogs, Wests Tigers

$51        Brisbane

$61         St George Ill (were $51 earlier this week)