Origin Tips, Odds, Predictions and Teams –QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues 2023 State Of Origin Game 1

Adelaide Oval will play host to Wednesday's Round 1 NRL game between Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues. The game kicks off at 8:05 pm with New South Wales Blues heading into the game as favourites with the bookmakers. Continue reading for our in-depth preview of the Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues game and give you our free tips and bets.

When: Wednesday May 31, 2023 at 8:05 pm

Where: Adelaide Oval

Bet: Bet On This Match HERE

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Odds

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Preview

Straying from its famed loyalty policy – particularly when the team’s winning – Queensland dropped a bombshell by leaving out Kalyn Ponga, man-of-the-match in the 2022 decider, and perennial Origin stud Dane Gagai, who had played the last 22 interstate matches in succession.

The Maroons couldn’t have found a more like-for-like fullback replacement for Ponga than electric debutant Reece Walsh, while Dolphins No.1 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will feature in the centre spot he made a tryscoring debut in the 2021 dead-rubber.

Elsewhere, Murray Taulagi surprisingly ousted Xavier Coates for a wing spot, while the Queensland’s pack has a youthful look about it following the retirement of stalwart Josh Papalii, Felise Kaufusi’s suspension and the call to pick Thomas Flegler over Storm veteran Christian Welch.

The Maroons’ back-five is brimming with strike and they posses a dynamic, aggressive pack – including game-breaker David Fifita in the second-row – but their biggest strength is the brilliant playmaking quartet of Cameron Munster, Daly Cherry-Evans, Ben Hunt and Harry Grant.

Munster, who missed the 2022 decider with COVID, is carrying a rib injury but always delivers in the Origin arena. Skipper DCE is playing his 20th match. The Hunt-Grant rotation gives Queensland a significant edge against a NSW side carrying only one genuine dummy-half.

NSW’s big surprise was Tevita Pangai Jr coming from the clouds for a debut following Jake Trbojevic’s injury. It’s a gamble, but the presence of Payne Haas, Junior Paulo and Isaah Yeo should ensure the Blues’ middle at the very least matches Queensland’s (TPJ brain explosions notwithstanding).

Newcomer Hudson Young is an inspired second-row pick, ably backed by outstanding edge trio Tyson Frizell, Cameron Murray and Liam Martin.

Injury-hampered Tom Trbojevic and Josh Addo-Carr made successful late selection bids in Round 12, ostensibly at the expense of seemingly certain debutant Campbell Graham. The other edge of Latrell Mitchell and Brian To’o will arguably have the Maroons on greater alert, however.

Nathan Cleary has a point to prove after a disappointing showing in game three last year, but the dual premiership winner has been untouchable at NRL level this year. He’s the most important player on the park, though he needs help from an interesting support cast.

Jarome Luai staved off the challenge of Nicho Hynes for the No.6, with the reigning Dally M Medallist shunted to the bench. How Brad Fittler utilises Hynes is the big question. Midweek speculation suggests Luai could spend time at dummy-half giving Api Koroisau a spell.

Koroisau makes his fourth Origin appearance, but his first without overlooked Damien Cook in the Blues’ 17. Plenty on his shoulders. Meanwhile, captain and fullback James Tedesco only broke out of a form slump last Friday.

This is the second Origin match to be played in Adelaide, after Wayne Bennett’s ragtag Queensland line-up produced an 18-14 boilover in the 2020 series opener. It was the Maroons’ only win in the last five Origins at neutral venues, with the Blues romping to a 44-12 game two result in Perth last year.

Origin series openers are traditionally close-fought: only two of the last 19 were decided by more than 10 points (NSW’s big wins in Brisbane in 2017 and Townsville in 2021). Queensland have won three of the last four, including a Munster-inspired 16-10 upset in Sydney last year.

Six of the last nine Origins have produced 34 points or less, resulting in a tight 36.5 total match points line, while the Blues are $1.65 favourites giving away a 2.5-point start.

Outside of their halves and hookers, Queensland’s experience void does loom as a concern. Valentine Holmes is the only member of the back five with more than three Origins under his belt, while Jai Arrow (11) and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (9) are the only forwards with more than six appearances.

Addo-Carr, Mitchell and Trbojevic all missed NSW’s series loss last year but boast a combined 25 tries from 27 collective appearances for the Blues.

Though another gripping Origin battle is on the cards, Fittler appears to have a more well-rounded squad better suited to drawing first blood.

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