Suncorp Stadium will play host to Wednesday's State of Origin game between Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues. The game kicks off at 8:05 pm with the Queensland heading into the game as favourites with the bookmakers. Continue reading for our in-depth preview of the Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues game and give you our free tips and bets.

When: Wednesday July 17, 2024 at 8:05 pm

Where: Suncorp Stadium

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Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Odds

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Preview

The Blues can approach the upcoming decider with high confidence after their dominant display against the Maroons in the first 40 minutes in Melbourne.

NSW dominated the reigning champions through the middle, with Payne Haas making a significant impact in the Origin arena. Mitch Moses delivered an exceptional performance, leading the team to a record 34-0 halftime score after being called up as the state’s No.7 savior.

On the edges, Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Brian To’o, and Zac Lomax were outstanding. Mitchell’s presence, in particular, boosted the Blues’ confidence and swagger. However, his injury is a significant setback. Newcastle’s Bradman Best, who had an impressive two-try debut in last year’s dead-rubber, will step in but may not intimidate Queensland as much as Mitchell.

The Blues’ only other change is bringing in Warriors’ hardman Mitch Barnett to replace Haumole Olakau’atu, adding versatility and resilience to the team.

The Maroons, encouraged by their second-half performance at the MCG, winning 18-4, found ways to score but relied heavily on Reece Walsh’s speed on the edges. They will need more variety and directness in their attack on Wednesday.

With wingers Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi out injured, Billy Slater has brought back Selwyn Cobbo and introduced Origin specialist Dane Gagai at center, moving Valentine Holmes to the wing. This new lineup, including Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (nine tries in seven Origins), looks even more formidable.

Historical statistics for Origin deciders present a challenging scenario for the Blues. Out of 22 game three clashes where the series was still alive, Queensland has won 15 times, compared to NSW’s five, with two draws (the Maroons retained the shield both times as the current holders).

Additionally, the Blues have won just two of 13 deciders hosted at Suncorp Stadium, with victories on enemy soil in 1994 and 2005. The most recent decider, in 2022, saw Queensland win 22-12.

Overall, the Maroons’ record in Queensland stands at 40-21-1, with 15 wins out of the last 18 Origins at Suncorp, including six of the last seven.

The last eight Origins in Brisbane have seen point totals of 38 or less. Despite the MCG result, the Maroons shouldn’t be overly concerned. Historically, teams that lost game two by 16-plus points and forced a decider have either won game three or lost by six points or less.

NSW effectively limited Daly Cherry-Evans’ and Reece Walsh’s time with the ball in game two. However, replicating that first-half dominance at Suncorp will be challenging. The Maroons, with their extensive experience in such situations at home, are likely to find a way. Another classic battle is expected, but it appears to be leaning in Queensland’s favor.

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